Can/will Dems overcome their Wisconsin Geography problem?

[lfromnj]

Michigan still required a favorable map in Lansing and Ann Arbor  to win the senate.Also the state house splits GR into 5 seats, The core Lansing cities into 5 as well and Washtentaw into 7 despite perfectly nesting in 4.

PA is weird.  The state house is a dem favorable map while state senate is R favorable . The weird thing is that a natural map should be the opposite . Both common sense and computer simulations dictate this( and simulations are a solid measurement for something as large as PA state house)


The reason is because look at the smaller metroes like Harrisburg and Lancaster. In congress they are in an R seat. In the state house they would be naturally packed into 1 to 2 dem seats . The state senate is the ideal configuration of lean D sears across the state which actually gives Democrats a natural advantage .


So yeah Wisconsin almost requires a redraw for Democrats to have a chance and it would need to make a few decisions splitting Dane or Milwaukee into more than 4 and 5 seats respectively somewhere .

[lfromnj]

I'm not seeing it.  Unlike MI and PA, I think it's most likely that WI gets fully Ohio-ized with a semi-permanent GOP supermajority than Dems taking a trifecta anytime soon. 

What about that state Supreme Court race.

[lfromnj]

Michigan still required a favorable map in Lansing and Ann Arbor  to win the senate.Also the state house splits GR into 5 seats, The core Lansing cities into 5 as well and Washtentaw into 7 despite perfectly nesting in 4.

PA is weird.  The state house is a dem favorable map while state senate is R favorable . The weird thing is that a natural map should be the opposite . Both common sense and computer simulations dictate this( and simulations are a solid measurement for something as large as PA state house)


The reason is because look at the smaller metroes like Harrisburg and Lancaster. In congress they are in an R seat. In the state house they would be naturally packed into 1 to 2 dem seats . The state senate is the ideal configuration of lean D sears across the state which actually gives Democrats a natural advantage .


So yeah Wisconsin almost requires a redraw for Democrats to have a chance and it would need to make a few decisions splitting Dane or Milwaukee into more than 4 and 5 seats respectively somewhere .

That is interesting as to PA because Cervas, the guy who drew the NYS maps, was the consultant for the drawing of the legislative districts. Perhaps it was a compromise. In NYS, Cervas was excellent in minimizing splits, and very good about erosity. And the map was mostly his, rather than the judge's.

Cervas likely was not involved in the pa state senate map beyond instructions. 

[lfromnj]

I'm not seeing it.  Unlike MI and PA, I think it's most likely that WI gets fully Ohio-ized with a semi-permanent GOP supermajority than Dems taking a trifecta anytime soon. 

What about that state Supreme Court race.

I think that seat will flip because a total abortion ban is at stake.  I expect many of the ~25% of Midwestern Republicans who are at least somewhat pro-choice will vote for the liberal.  However, I still doubt that a redrawn state legislative map would sweep in a Dem majority in 2024.

I think you underestimate the hackishness of Wisconsin supreme court justices outside of Hagedorn.

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

Isn’t there 10 basically safe Dem seats in the Wisconsin senate?  The Rock county seat went for Biden by 20 points.  The LaCrosse seat is only up in Presidential years (was Biden + 6 and even Hillary won it by a decent margin)and they would only lose there if Dems started doing even quite a bit worse than Hillary in that area.  Not sure what you are counting as the other non Dem seat?  The Racine-Kenosha seat? That was Biden + 20.

The la crosse seat was pretty close last time around. Like within a point.  I'm saying within a neutral drawn map as well. Not the current .

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

I don't know how you only get 7 seats,  Milwaukee has enough population for five seats easily and there's really no reason to split it like the GOP did in 2011.   Dane+Rock should be four safe D seats as well.

With Kenosha and Raccine it's either 1 safe D or two tossups.

I said Dane + Rock is 8 just that Rock isn't 100% Safe although close enough. Milwaukee county has enough for 5 seats but a south county seat could be pretty competitive. The current map honestly isn't that bad for Dems in Milwaukee.  It places Oak Creek and half of Franklin which voted for Trump into a Safe D white Dem Milwaukee seat for some reason. I guess some configurations of Milwaukee could get you all 5 as Safe D.

[lfromnj]

Isn't Columbia just more German?. It borders the other German rural/exurbs near WOW so its basically a half and half of the German WOW influence and the Dane influence

[lfromnj]

I just don’t see it as possible for Dems to ever have a majority barring a mega wave.

However, I think this election kind of jettisoned the idea of Wisconsin’s red inevitability that many, including myself, had assumed. For as much room as there is to fall for Dems in rural Wisconsin, it seems the suburbs are getting noticeably bluer. I imagine Biden would get at least 40% in Waukesha in 2020 and possibly win a few municipalities there in a Trump rematch.

Wisconsin is weird. It used to be the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs were a massive GOP vote net, the rural areas were swingy but generally a slight GOP vote net, and Madison and Milwaukee were the Dem vote nets.

Now the GOP is far more reliant on a rural base in WI whereas Dem's base has become much more concentrated to Madison and Milwaukee.

I think the one good thing for Dems in WI long term is that Madison is growing pretty fast, and that growth seems to be exclusively liberal. It won't help them a ton on the state legislative level, but Dane County will continue to net them more and more votes.

The good thing for the GOP in WI is that the rural areas are basically stagnant, compared to say MN, MI, and PA where rural areas are generally losing population pretty badly. Milwaukee proper is also losing population and has been for a while.

As others have pointed out though, WI rurals are probably never going to be as red as rurals in neighboring states due to a scattering of Native Americans and tourism/liberal "retirement" communities.

The growth in Dane isn't as good as you think. Look at the old CD map. WI04 was 40k underpopulated while WI02 was 50k overpopulated. The 5th was right on dot while the 1st was slightly underpopulated likely due to the cities of Kenosha/Racine. *edit  just checked and the Kenosha/Racine senate districts were like 8k underpopulated so yes that does confirm it.