2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[_.]

Your average Democrat does know that Biden's approval is very bad (and they think it's coming from their own partisan side, lol) but as you said they're engulfed in Trump is Hitler; Jan 6th was worse than Pearl Harbor type propaganda, so in their minds, the GOP is an extremist party that shouldn't be able to garner more than 30% of the vote. It will be a "democracy is dead" type of meltdown for them if both chambers flip, but still only a fraction of the reaction to a potential 2nd Trump term in 2024. MSNBC will be a must-watch on election night.

The average Democrat doesn't really care that much, and neither does the average Republican.

It really is weird how there are so many blue wave predictions out there basically every cycle no matter what, but I never see Republicans massively overpredict their own side. Even the most staunch Trump supporters like RedEaglePolitics I think underpredict what's likely to happen in the midterms in some races. It's a very bizarre asymmetrical phenomenon, partially I think because Republicans are more defeatist (used to losing) and media/political coverage makes it seem like they're weaker than they are, and some of them buy into that even subconsciously.

Interesting, I always see both sides overpredict. I'm not gonna pretend that I've never overpredicted myself so it's nothing hard against them but back when I was watching Trump-aligned subreddits, online polls, it always seemed like they severely overestimated Republicans. I specifically remember many of them believing Minnesota and Oregon would be in play.

Of course though all these are just anecdotes. Onto real data, it looks like according to YouGov, the distribution's much more even than you might expect:

Image Link

[ElectionsGuy]

Your average Democrat does know that Biden's approval is very bad (and they think it's coming from their own partisan side, lol) but as you said they're engulfed in Trump is Hitler; Jan 6th was worse than Pearl Harbor type propaganda, so in their minds, the GOP is an extremist party that shouldn't be able to garner more than 30% of the vote. It will be a "democracy is dead" type of meltdown for them if both chambers flip, but still only a fraction of the reaction to a potential 2nd Trump term in 2024. MSNBC will be a must-watch on election night.

The average Democrat doesn't really care that much, and neither does the average Republican.

It really is weird how there are so many blue wave predictions out there basically every cycle no matter what, but I never see Republicans massively overpredict their own side. Even the most staunch Trump supporters like RedEaglePolitics I think underpredict what's likely to happen in the midterms in some races. It's a very bizarre asymmetrical phenomenon, partially I think because Republicans are more defeatist (used to losing) and media/political coverage makes it seem like they're weaker than they are, and some of them buy into that even subconsciously.

Interesting, I always see both sides overpredict. I'm not gonna pretend that I've never overpredicted myself so it's nothing hard against them but back when I was watching Trump-aligned subreddits, online polls, it always seemed like they severely overestimated Republicans. I specifically remember many of them believing Minnesota and Oregon would be in play.

Of course though all these are just anecdotes. Onto real data, it looks like according to YouGov, the distribution's much more even than you might expect:

Image Link

That's a good point. I'm more or less talking about the online political world. Average Republicans (and Democrats) do dramatically overestimate themselves, but online personalities and pundits that represent Republicans tend not to do as much in my observations. But maybe my observations are skewed.

I was listening to a podcast with Ted Cruz, and he insisted that the Senate was "50/50" in terms of who's favored to control it after 2022. A toss-up? Doesn't really sound like he thinks a red wave is coming unless it's some weird tactical ploy to say they overperformed later.

[Calthrina950]

PPP, Profoundly Poor Polling. Not that it was unexpected because it was internal anyway.

I can't wait for all the bad house polls. It's going to be a true test of whether people have learned anything about our current political situation and structural polling bias. The 2020 house polls were some of the worst and most unrealistic polls I had ever seen. People believed them anyway, and it led many (most, actually) to assume Democrats would do even better in the House than in 2018. What happens when a bunch of polls put Democrats at or even overperforming their 2020 performance in multiple districts, despite the generic ballot being much more R? Or forget that even, we're already seeing right now huge disparities between Biden approval and generic ballot between pollsters (Quinnipiac has Biden approval at -19, GB at R+1 while Fox has Biden approval at -5 but GB at the same R+1) and GB's ranging from R+14 to D+6. Do the "experts" over at Cook, Sabato, or 538 change their outlook on the House, and doubt Republicans actually take control (Dem gerrymandering is also going to help that argument)? Does the narrative soon become "red wave doesn't look likely" despite some of the worst fundamentals for the Democratic Party since 2010 or 1994? We'll see by the summer or early fall if these "nonpartisan" election forecasters try to sell a narrative favorable to Dems again. They can also point to fundraising, which is going to favor Democrats as they have mastered the use of dark money and have billionaires casually dumping hundreds of millions to help them out. It's going to get interesting, but once again (unfortunately) many people are going to be duped and misled in the process.

I can't wait to see the democrat meltdowns after the midterms. Right now on this forum most D users overestimate democrats, but that's nothing compared to outside this forum. For example on alternatehistory.com, where users are significantly less politically aware than people on this forum (but still more than the average person), the average prediction I saw on a midterm prediction thread was democrats GAINING Senate seats, losing no governorships and barely losing the house. If that's how people are viewing the midterms on an (admittedly left-leaning) more politically aware and intelligent forum, I can't imagine how your average democrat voter who is fed daily with "Jan 6 is the end of the GOP" headlines will react to a red wave.

Your average Democrat does know that Biden's approval is very bad (and they think it's coming from their own partisan side, lol) but as you said they're engulfed in Trump is Hitler; Jan 6th was worse than Pearl Harbor type propaganda, so in their minds, the GOP is an extremist party that shouldn't be able to garner more than 30% of the vote. It will be a "democracy is dead" type of meltdown for them if both chambers flip, but still only a fraction of the reaction to a potential 2nd Trump term in 2024. MSNBC will be a must-watch on election night.

It really is weird how there are so many blue wave predictions out there basically every cycle no matter what, but I never see Republicans massively overpredict their own side. Even the most staunch Trump supporters like RedEaglePolitics I think underpredict what's likely to happen in the midterms in some races. It's a very bizarre asymmetrical phenomenon, partially I think because Republicans are more defeatist (used to losing) and media/political coverage makes it seem like they're weaker than they are, and some of them buy into that even subconsciously.

I certainly have become more cautious about making electoral predictions since 2020. I was one of those who thought Biden was going to beat Trump decisively, and I didn't realize the extent to which his support was underestimated in the polls and by the media. I think that it is best to describe this country as one where Democrats do outnumber Republicans, but not to a considerable extent, and that there is a slice of independent or swing voters who oscillate between the two parties and who can be won over by the right Republican candidates. The "Emerging Democratic Majority" thesis has been largely discredited, and the two-party system is stronger than it has ever been before.

[Pollster]

Mr. Pollster I hope you are not actually buying that lol.

Please, Mr. Pollster is my dad.

And yes, I can definitely buy that Mathis will get 42%.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(C)-rated CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/11/politics/cnn-poll-economy-education-2022/index.html
CNN Poll: Economy and education could shape how Americans vote in 2022

GOP +1

They had Dems +5 in Nov, Dems +1 in Sep 2021.
They had Dems +11 right before 2020 election, so a double digits swing since 2020.

[Unelectable Bystander]

(C)-rated CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/11/politics/cnn-poll-economy-education-2022/index.html
CNN Poll: Economy and education could shape how Americans vote in 2022

GOP +1

They had Dems +5 in Nov, Dems +1 in Sep 2021.
They had Dems +11 right before 2020 election, so a double digits swing since 2020.

With that and the Susquehanna poll, the 538 weighted generic ballot is now at R+ 2.2, a new high for this cycle. GB and special elections have been the only factors not signaling a wave, so certainly an interesting development

[ElectionsGuy]

Susquehanna's Biden approval is -10 and GB is R+6
CNN's Biden approval is -15 and GB is R+1

I have questions. This is why it's extremely important you get a representative sample across the board. A sample may look appropriate or even R-leaning based on Biden approval, but you could be getting way too many people who are metro/urban college-educated independents who are "disappointed" with Biden but aren't actually much different from Democrats. Out of these two, I know which one I'm trusting more, based off track records and common sense. CNN's generic ballot in 2020 was a laughable D+12.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's February not October too and COVID is ending too it's almost Spring, flu season is about over no more Omnicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JimJusticeWV/status/1493968656958517249
Justice is very popular, so this is a big deal.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JimJusticeWV/status/1493968656958517249
Justice is very popular, so this is a big deal.

Mooney's chances sink ever lower.

[SnowLabrador]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

[Sir Mohamed]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

It won't be this much, but if seriously believing Dems would be headed for 2002 or 1998 redux under Sanders and any other Dem POTUS, is just ludicrous. We might not even have a 50-50 senate now. So no BIF or Covid relief bill would have been passed at all.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1493993298356326406?t=UoEXnuPYBeJCvonGz...

Likely R.

[Roll Roons]

Congressman Tom Kean, here we come!

[2016]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1493993298356326406?t=UoEXnuPYBeJCvonGz...

Likely R.

Consistent with most National Polls which have Republicans up. The Economist/YouGov have to be absolutely discounted. How can they have a D +11 Sample. Ridiculous!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's lead on GCB 42/37 on the You Gov poll it's February not October still too premature to celebrate for Rs and COVID is going down good for Biden this is the same Biden that beat Trump in 2028 and won 375 EC votes in 2008/12

[2016]

D's lead on GCB 42/37 on the You Gov poll it's February not October still too premature to celebrate for Rs and COVID is going down good for Biden this is the same Biden that beat Trump in 2028 and won 375 EC votes in 2008/12

42 % ain't all that great because the further we go in the 2022 Campaign the more likely the Undecided Voters break for the Challenger. YouGov Poll also underpolled White Non-College Vote.

[2016]

Complete Disaster for Democrats incoming...
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1493999422895624199

Harris down in her own Home State (38/46), President Biden barely breaking even. This is CA folks!

[2016]

Just for Olowakandi aka Bakari Sellers who was gloating about the YouGov Poll...
https://twitter.com/GrabingYou/status/1493976475581648896

[UncleSam]

Complete Disaster for Democrats incoming...
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1493999422895624199

Harris down in her own Home State (38/46), President Biden barely breaking even. This is CA folks!

It’s a little odd to me how many people disapprove of Feinstein simply because she is old.

[Roll Roons]

It’s a little odd to me how many people disapprove of Feinstein simply because she is old.

She's also very clearly losing her mental faculties and a lot of the state's left wingers probably see her as too moderate.

[Canis]

Complete Disaster for Democrats incoming...
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1493999422895624199

Harris down in her own Home State (38/46), President Biden barely breaking even. This is CA folks!

It’s a little odd to me how many people disapprove of Feinstein simply because she is old.

Eh its not just her age her ideology is far too moderate for the California of today. Her being involved in the insider trading scandal and refusing to back filibuster reform has not earned her any love.
Funnily enough, Alex Padilla is the only politician in the poll with a positive approval rating albeit with more undecideds than the other ones He's been doing a great job so far.  
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1494000270451384326

[Unelectable Bystander]

D's lead on GCB 42/37 on the You Gov poll it's February not October still too premature to celebrate for Rs and COVID is going down good for Biden this is the same Biden that beat Trump in 2028 and won 375 EC votes in 2008/12

42 % ain't all that great because the further we go in the 2022 Campaign the more likely the Undecided Voters break for the Challenger. YouGov Poll also underpolled White Non-College Vote.

I tried saying this two months ago but every left leaner tried to claim that it was only the result of Biden disapproving democrats. Every week that passes with Dems still at 42% on the GCB is another nail in the coffin. Also, can we vote to ban YouGov polls from this website? They literally send one out every 5 minutes and they’re utter trash.

[ElectionsGuy]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

Right, because Bernie would be so much more popular right now, therefore able to avoid the political gravity of midterm elections with record high inflation.