New Zealand general election, 20th September 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fairfax-Ipsos usually has a pretty hefty National lean compared to other firms, but, yeah, Cunliffe has blown it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because the many new parties of the right and centre-but-lol-actually-right of the 1990s were run by crooks and lunatics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sure, but that still doesn't really explain why there hasn't been any serious competition to the Nationals.

There was. Look at elections from a decade ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose you could say that the Nats have been lucky being challenged by low quality opponents, but that is in itself an interesting fact.

Very New Zealand though. I have immense affection for the country (and have relatives there), but they elected Robert Muldoon as their Prime Minister once. And, worse, re-elected him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite probably, but a big political scandal has just broken...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Last three polls:

Roy Morgan: Nat 48, Labour 27.5, Greens 11.5, (Left 39),  NZF 6.5, IM 2, MP 1, Con 1, ACT 0.5, UFNZ 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll: Nat 50, Labour 25.2, Greens 13.7, (Left 38.9), NFZ 4.3, Con 2.6, IM 2.1, MP 0.7, ACT 0.6, UFNZ 0.4
3NNR: Nat 45, Labour 26.4, Greens 13.5, (Left 39.9), NZF 6.3, Con 4.6, IM 2.1, UFNZ 0.4, ACT 0.3

_{Polling in New Zealand has historically tended to overestimate the Nationals and the Greens and to underestimate Labour and the minor parties (this should not be read as a prediction). There is also a tendency for different companies to produce wildly different figures. Additionally it should be noted that Fairfax-Ipsos tends to be very National leaning and that Roy Morgan can be highly volatile.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bad, but then the opposition had already screwed everything up; no worse than expected, then. Some silver linings as well; regaining Napier - a place with a long history of Labour representation - is something to be pleased at, even if it was via a vote-split fluke.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He should have gone the next morning, frankly.