UAE recognizes Israel, countries normalize relations 🇦🇪🇮🇱

[CumbrianLefty]

You are shocked that self-styled "libertarians" are actually only for liberty when it suits them?

[Velasco]

This jaymichaud has shown himself as an intolerant racist before. Obviously he knows little about my opinion of the treatment to foreign labourers in Southern Spain. Apparently his mission in this forum is supporting the Israeli apartheid and nothing more. The hypocrisy of some 'libertarians' can reach as high levels as the hypocrisy of some self-styled progressives turning a blind eye to the abuses of Israel. I get where is the historical root of Israel's impunity, the overwhelming sense of guilt in some western countries after the WW II, but anyway

[Frodo]

Let's assume Bahrain and Oman follow the lead of the United Arab Emirates, and join Egypt and Jordan in officially recognizing Israel.  I am not seeing too many other members of the Arab League willing to follow their lead.  Whatever the private views of the Saudi monarchy, I doubt they would be willing to defy the street on this issue, especially given they are self-styled guardians of Mecca and Medina.  And I don't think I need to elaborate on Yemen, Iraq, Syria, or Lebanon... 

Qatar and Kuwait, perhaps? 

[CumbrianLefty]

Qatar is rather doubtful, I would have thought.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Whatever the private views of the Saudi monarchy, I doubt they would be willing to defy the street on this issue, especially given they are self-styled guardians of Mecca and Medina.  

MBS would/will recognize Israel if/when he thinks he can get away with it. I don’t think his father would go for it (Salman, as Governor of Riyadh, was in charge of coordinating private Saudi funding not just for Palestinian fighters, but also for fighters in Afghanistan in the 80s and Bosnia in the 90s. I don’t think I need to elaborate).

[All Along The Watchtower]

Qatar is rather doubtful, I would have thought.

Qatar has cooperated with Israel before - much to the chagrin of the Saudis and Emiratis, because they did it independently, and the Saudis and Emiratis think Qatar should act more like Bahrain (ie., ask how high when Riyadh and Abu Dhabi tell them to jump).

They’ve never forgiven Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani for overthrowing his father in the mid-90s, and they will always despise Al Jazeera. The events of 2011 made the stakes of the fear and hatred existential.

[Frodo]

Safe to say Kuwait is probably not going to jump on the bandwagon:

Kuwait position towards Israel unchanged - Al-Qabas newspaper

Kuwait's position towards Israel is unchanged after its accord with the United Arab Emirates and it will be the last country to normalise relations, newspaper al-Qabas reported on Sunday citing Kuwaiti government sources.

(...) "The Kuwaiti position is consistent with its decades-old foreign policy approach in support of the Palestinian cause, as it is the premier Arab issue, and only accepting a solution if it is what the Palestinians accept," al-Qabas said.

[Frodo]

Speculation in the Israeli media suggests that the five most likely countries in the Arab League that could follow the United Arab Emirates in officially recognizing Israel include Bahrain, Oman, Morocco, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia:

Five countries that could be next to make peace with Israel
Some view the UAE decision as a trial balloon, and will react positively based on how the next weeks and months play out.

[CumbrianLefty]

KSA remains somewhat unlikely for the reasons already stated.

[SInNYC]

It wouldn't surprise me if somebody else has already agreed to normalize relations but Trump is holding it for an October announcement, "My genius brought peace to the middle east which nobody in the world has ever done before".

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

UAE cancels Israel meeting after Netanyahu opposes F-35 arms deal

The United Arab Emirates canceled a planned trilateral meeting with the U.S. and Israel last Friday to send a message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his opposition to a pending arms deal between the U.S. and UAE, three sources with knowledge of the matter tell me.

Why it matters: Just days after Israel and the UAE announced a landmark normalization deal, there has already been a spike in tensions.

The backstory: Israeli media reported that, as a condition of the deal, Netanyahu signed off on pending sales of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE. He denied those reports and publicly came out against the potential arms deal.

[dead0man]

<keep in mind, I'm a supporter of Israel's right to exist>

Why does Bibi/the state of Israel have veto rights over who we sell sh**t to?  That seems like a bad idea.

[All Along The Watchtower]

<keep in mind, I'm a supporter of Israel's right to exist>

Why does Bibi/the state of Israel have veto rights over who we sell sh**t to?  That seems like a bad idea.

Bibi is a Republican Party (US) politician. Good friends with Trump and Kushner, too.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

<keep in mind, I'm a supporter of Israel's right to exist>

Why does Bibi/the state of Israel have veto rights over who we sell sh**t to?  That seems like a bad idea.

It's not like it doesn't go the other way. Apparently one of Trump's big demands of Netanyahu was that Israel stop selling certain military tech to China. Allies often make these kinds of requests of each other, and it's not really a "veto" so much as a strong suggestion.

[CumbrianLefty]

<keep in mind, I'm a supporter of Israel's right to exist>

You could have fooled us tbf

[Velasco]

<keep in mind, I'm a supporter of Israel's right to exist>

Why does Bibi/the state of Israel have veto rights over who we sell sh**t to?  That seems like a bad idea.

Bibi is a Republican Party (US) politician. Good friends with Trump and Kushner, too.

dead0man poses the right question, but that's not the correct answer (at least it's not a complete answer). Bibi has fooled Democrat presidents, too. In all likelihood Obama disliked Bibi very much, but in the end he did absolutely nothing to stop him. The reason why Bibi has veto power on issues like that is more related to the nature of the 'special friendship' between Israel and the USA. That special relationship is also one of the main reasons why Israel enjoys impunity, despite the constant breaches of international law and human rights abuses. I think Bibi is a despicable corrupt criminal, but he is also a skilled politician eho knows how to play his cards. Trump is clay in the hands of evil masterminds like Vladimir Putin or Bibi Netanyahu

[TDAS04]

Morocco seems like an obvious possibility in recognizing Israel.

Of the first two Arab countries to do so, which is the better friend of Israel, Egypt or Jordan?

[dead0man]

Of the first two Arab countries to do so, which is the better friend of Israel, Egypt or Jordan?

I'd guess Egypt as they have to deal with Hamas/the Gaza border (which is a bigger pain in the ass than the PLO/Fatah/West Bank), but that's just a guess.  Good question and I'd like to hear others takes on it.

[Sir Mohamed]

Today, the first regular flight from Israel to the UAE occured. Great step toward normalization!

https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1300398170342649857

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1304472024144904192?s=21

Bet Velasco is fuming. Sorry gal, the Cold War is over.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Bet Velasco is fuming. Sorry gal, the Cold War is over.

Velasco?  What does a former president of Peru have to do with this?

[Frodo]

Sudan might be next:

Sudan Is Focus of U.S. Efforts to Improve Ties With Israel
The U.S. is offering cash aid and promises to entice Sudan to recognize Israel before the American election, while the big prize, Saudi Arabia, remains out of reach.

(...) Officials believe the most immediate prospect is Sudan, and the administration has linked recognition of Israel to Sudan’s removal from a list of states that sponsor terrorism, a longstanding Sudanese demand. The designation, which dates to 1993, hinders Sudan’s ability to receive debt relief and international financial aid, and is a major hurdle to foreign investment in Sudan.

But recognition of Israel is a highly contentious issue that officials and analysts warn could destabilize the country’s fragile transitional government. This past week, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s de facto leader, flew to the United Arab Emirates for unofficial talks with American and Emirati officials about a potential economic assistance package for Sudan’s stricken economy that officials say could help to sell recognition of Israel.

But others warn that popular hostility toward Israel remains high inside the country, and that a rushed deal on Israel could generate new support for the Islamist forces that were marginalized after the ouster of Mr. al-Bashir.

“No one wants a repetition of the 1983 Israeli-Lebanese peace agreement, which, signed by a Lebanese government without popular legitimacy, collapsed in less than a year,” Payton Knopf, of the United States Institute of Peace, and Jeffrey Feltman, of the Brookings Institution, wrote in a report on Thursday.

[All Along The Watchtower]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-expects-oman-to-normalize-next-mossad-chief-says-saudi-deal-soon-tv/

I mean, I would’ve thought that this wouldn’t happen until Salman died, but it’s a fait accompli at this point. Even just from a strict realpolitik sense, it makes sense.

It’s not lost on the Saudis that the PLO supported Saddam Hussein (a longtime Israeli enemy) during the Gulf War, or that Hamas has been supported more by Iran in recent years - and Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have led the “Axis of Resistance.”

And yes, the US is obviously eager for its two most important allies in the region to have official, close diplomatic relations.

[PSOL]

Israel is fine with the F-35 being sold to the UAE.

Time is ticking on when Israel will annex a major portion of Area C. This is without a doubt the beginning of the end of a sovereign Palestinian entity, as not even Iran really cares about the PA, only the various militants it can use as cannon fodder to protect strategic assets in Lebanon and Syria—and they could all just relocate to Syria for all they care.

Anyway, this opens up for a bigger partnership in boxing Iran’s influence to Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. The only real expansion point possible is probably opening up a front in either Qatar or a new Bahraini government. Still, the mullahs are probably pretty darn p!$$ed they have a united front (+ Turkey perhaps) against them now.

[Frodo]

Sudan and Israel agree to normalize ties, the third such accord since August