2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[kwabbit]

My first attempt at a fair Michigan map. I tried to minimize county and city splits, but in doing so I mistakenly created a mild GOP gerrymander. Detroit is kept whole, but the result is a Dem pack, but I think Detroit should be kept whole if it can be. The data is President 2016. Biden likely flipped the Lansing CD and possibly flipped the Grand Rapids CD, but the likely breakdown was 4-9 in 2016 and 5-8 in 2020. I tried to make a thumb seat but that involved incorporating Flint, which cost Dems a seat. Not making a seat that went across Macomb and Oakland probably cost another seat. The map could've been 9-4 with a pro-Dem drawn while still being fair.

[kwabbit]

Not VRA compliant.

Do I need to make a second AA seat in Detroit?

Bit of a bummer, I was surprised that Detroit could be fit into a nice, neat district. I suppose it can be rearranged without really changing the outcome of the map though.

What qualifies as VRA compliant? I was able to make both Detroit CDs around 45% black. Should I shoot for 50?



The east Detroit is now down to 50% Black and the West Wayne is now 42% Black. DRA has minority rating at 98.

[kwabbit]

Not VRA compliant.

Do I need to make a second AA seat in Detroit?

Bit of a bummer, I was surprised that Detroit could be fit into a nice, neat district. I suppose it can be rearranged without really changing the outcome of the map though.

What qualifies as VRA compliant? I was able to make both Detroit CDs around 45% black. Should I shoot for 50?

A compact Detroit CD is excessive packing of black voters. That being said - you don't have to touch any CDs on the map other than 11 and 10. Just rearrange them.

Rearranged above.

[kwabbit]

Not VRA compliant.

Do I need to make a second AA seat in Detroit?

Bit of a bummer, I was surprised that Detroit could be fit into a nice, neat district. I suppose it can be rearranged without really changing the outcome of the map though.

What qualifies as VRA compliant? I was able to make both Detroit CDs around 45% black. Should I shoot for 50?


The east Detroit is now down to 50% Black and the West Wayne is now 42% Black. DRA has minority rating at 98.

You can definitely get over 50% pretty easily and compactly. It does require dipping into Southfield and Pontiac, and you do have to do a little careful work to avoid splitting municipalities, but it's very doable.

Does going from 42 to 50% warrant another split of Oakland? I saw all of the Black population in South Oakland but I have an existing district with basically all of incorporated Oakland in it. Counties are pretty arbitrary political boundaries, but I don't like how Wayne/Washtenaw/Macomb/Oakland are all carved up in weird ways in the actual House map.

I do think 42% Black is enough to elect a representative of their choice consistently. They make up over 60% of the Dem electorate in each.

[kwabbit]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

[kwabbit]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

Was Hillary Scholten a good candidate? Meijer really should have done better given that he is a Meijer and the area's love of Republicans down ballot.