Where do the states fall?

[opebo]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

How did you make that nifty non-Atlas map?  I'd like to make one.  Actually I'd just make the same thing except PA leans D.

[opebo]

Florida is pretty much staying the same.

The political balance has stayed the same, but the make up of each electorate is changing quite a lot.  The state has several major sources of potential instability - increasing minority/decreasing white electorate, immigration from other states, and finally the factor of the dying off of each successive generation of olds and their replacement by the next. 

I would argue that the status we observe in the statistics above in fact represents a masking of the rapid increase in the minority (D) electorate by the die off of a relatively Democratic generation of elders (the 'Greatest Generation') and their replacement by a relatively R generation of elders (the 'Silent Generation'). 

The next step is the continued growth and likely continued D-trend of the Hispanics and other minorities, coupled with a die off of the Silent Generation.  I think Florida will be the state to watch in 2016 and 2020, because a rapid shift due to these factors is quite possible, and obviously curtains for the Republicans if it were to happen.

[opebo]

Florida is pretty much staying the same.

The political balance has stayed the same, but the make up of each electorate is changing quite a lot.  The state has several major sources of potential instability - increasing minority/decreasing white electorate, immigration from other states, and finally the factor of the dying off of each successive generation of olds and their replacement by the next. 

I would argue that the status we observe in the statistics above in fact represents a masking of the rapid increase in the minority (D) electorate by the die off of a relatively Democratic generation of elders (the 'Greatest Generation') and their replacement by a relatively R generation of elders (the 'Silent Generation'). 

The next step is the continued growth and likely continued D-trend of the Hispanics and other minorities, coupled with a die off of the Silent Generation.  I think Florida will be the state to watch in 2016 and 2020, because a rapid shift due to these factors is quite possible, and obviously curtains for the Republicans if it were to happen.

Yes I think it will be at least a decade if we see any shift in Florida. The state's demographics have been changing for 50 years though and will likely continue.

You didn't bother to comment upon my actual point, which is that there are two trends at work - an ever-increasing D-minority vote, with a fluctuating D/R/D elder vote, as each generation of retirees dies off and is replaced.  My point is simply that if we did have a rapid die off of D-leaning olds (Greatest Generation), and their replacement over the last decade by R-leaning olds (silent Generation), this has only kept the state even, as the underlying trend is Minority-D.  As soon as the generation of elders replacing the Silent generation's die-off swings D (if it does), the state could begin to move sharply and rapidly D.  I suppose some careful polling of the elderly would be in order to discover predictive signs of this hopeful thought.

[opebo]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

[opebo]

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

Ah, ok, so no huge threat.

[opebo]

I've adjusted the categories for me.

Safe GOP      Solid GOP         Likely GOP         Leans GOP     Barely GOP

Utah             North Dakota    Louisiana           Montana        Missouri 
Wyoming      Kansas             West Virginia      Tennessee     North Carolina
Idaho           Alabama           Arkansas                                Indiana
Oklahoma     Kentucky          South Carolina
Nebraska      Mississippi        Georgia
Alaska          Texas               Arizona
                   South Dakota

Safe Dem         Solid Dem      Likely Dem    Leans Dem       Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland       Washington    Maine              New Mexico
Hawaii              California                           Michigan          New Hampshire
Rhode Island    Connecticut                        Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                           Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                              Wisconsin
New York          New Jersey                        Pennsylvania
                                                                Iowa


                                                        Toss Up

                                                        Virginia
                                                        Florida
                                                        Ohio
                                                        Colorado
                                                        Nevada

I agree, except as I've added color: move each one category as indicated and you have my best guess.

[opebo]

I've adjusted the categories for me.

Safe GOP      Solid GOP         Likely GOP         Leans GOP     Barely GOP

Utah             North Dakota    Louisiana           Montana        Missouri 
Wyoming      Kansas             West Virginia      Tennessee     North Carolina
Idaho           Alabama           Arkansas                                Indiana
Oklahoma     Kentucky          South Carolina
Nebraska      Mississippi        Georgia
Alaska          Texas               Arizona
                   South Dakota

Safe Dem         Solid Dem      Likely Dem    Leans Dem       Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland       Washington    Maine              New Mexico
Hawaii              California                           Michigan          New Hampshire
Rhode Island    Connecticut                        Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                           Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                              Wisconsin
New York          New Jersey                        Pennsylvania
                                                                Iowa


                                                        Toss Up

                                                        Virginia
                                                        Florida
                                                        Ohio
                                                        Colorado
                                                        Nevada

I agree, except as I've added color: move each one category as indicated and you have my best guess.

You're saying I moved them too close to the middle.

Yeah I would have classified them as leaning harder in their respective directions.  Your analysis is quite cautious.