More vulnerable: Kelly or Beshear?

[S019]

Both are very vulnerable, I'll say Beshear though, because he'll have an off-year election which means erratic turnout patterns where the party out of power is much more likely to turn out. Yes the midterm turnout advantage is bad, but off-year elections can be even worse, also KS is a bluer state than KY, and at least has some good trends for Democrats that Kelly could capitalize on.