Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[brucejoel99]

Luigi Di Maio steps down as leader of 5 Star Movement right before this weekend regional elections.  I suspect a general election is not too far off.  PM Matteo Salvini coming soon I suspect.

Man, who would've guessed that a directionless party with "establishment sux" as the party platform would go nowhere.

At least you know what you'll get with Salvini (ugh)

Di Maio resigns as Leader of M5S.

That's good. He should also resign as foreign minister, because the guy has zero credentials for this job. He's merely a political hack, who didn't finish university and has no knowledge of the English language.

30-something y/o, a college dropout, a former stadium drink seller, with no English (or correct Italian) spoken.

Ladies & gentlemen, the minister of foreign affairs.

Important to note that an electoral reform bill is currently working its way through Parliament, which would establish a German-like MMP system with a 5% threshold. There's likely to be some haggling over the details among government forces, but all of them have a vested interest in agreeing on something along these lines. And there's a non-insignificant chance that all or parts of Forza Italia back the idea too. It's far from a done deal, but it's something to watch.

Italy really is a funny case at this point. A few years ago, they changed the system & made it less proportional in an effort to keep the populists away from government, yet now that Salvini has the largest party, everybody has changed their tune: Salvini wants to move as far away from proportional representation as possible while everybody else wants to make the system as proportional as possible.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1241137340309024771

Suck it, Salvini.

[brucejoel99]

It seems that Conte is on track to win the Senate vote, is that right?

Yes, looks like he's on track to win a plurality in the Senate rather than an absolute majority, though he'll come close to one thanks to some of the life-long senators & a few floor-crossers from Italia Viva & Forza Italia. In any event, governments have been permitted in the past to command only a plurality in the Senate, so Mattarella will (obviously) allow Conte to continue at the helm.

[brucejoel99]

Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

[brucejoel99]

Definitely a stupid question but asking those of you who actually know & follow Italian politics on an active basis because I have no earthly ability to even attempt to garner an answer myself: what, in your opinion, is the most likely outcome of all of this?

[brucejoel99]

Again, a potentially stupid question from somebody who doesn't actively pay attention to Italian politics outside of significant moments like this, but just genuinely curious: would Draghi be inclined to keep Conte on-board in a high-up position like foreign minister or something along those lines, or is Conte just done?

[brucejoel99]

Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections

Having elections right now would genuinely be really bad for Italy. For economic reasons, and also because the electoral law is absolute trash and needs to be made more proportional.

Get the EU money, vaccinate people, start getting the economy out of the ditch, and enact a proportional system. If we get to January 2022, give us the added bonus of another left-leaning President. Then we can go to vote.

Have elections in June then

A Draghi government would presumably seek to do all of those things over the course of ~a year (as opposed to <4 months) so that they can actually be implemented in a competent manner.

Not to mention, in the event of a hypothetical June election being held & resulting in a hung parliament, Mattarella wouldn't be constitutionally able to call a 2nd election were one needed to resolve the deadlock, as Parliament can't be dissolved within the last 6 months of a presidential term.

[brucejoel99]

Hung parliament, nah, right coalition win

Didn't say it would be a hung parliament, but that it could be a hung parliament (& it very well could, because who knows what could happen over the course of a campaign?), & it's that fact which renders an election as late as June pretty irresponsible since a follow-up election could very well be necessary yet not holdable 'til ~Apr. 2022.

[brucejoel99]

"May Draghi finally get Italy's politics & economy in order," I said, knowing full well that this is Italian politics, & so that won't be happening, like, ever.

In any event, though, a flourishing Italy would be incredibly based.