Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[YL]

I wouldn't hold out much hope for the accuracy of constituency polls of STV elections, especially in places like Donegal.

[YL]

I fully expect Michael Healy-Rae to top the poll here. Arguably the most unintelligible TD to outside ears, the Healy-Raes nonetheless appear to make sense to the good people of Kerry. They are entrenched solidly here as they embark on their 5th term between father and son. Michael's brothers topped the polls in Killarney and Kerry S&W in the 2014 locals - and had they put other brothers, sisters or anyone else called Healy-Rae up for election, they'd have been elected too - Danny Healy-Rae got comfortably over two quotas, and Johnny wasn't all that far behind. Michael will be on the shortlist as one of the most biddable independents returned for any government looking to cobble together a majority.

I remember on one occasion several years ago when I was in Ireland I was watching RTE news, there was some local issue in Kerry, and they interviewed Jackie Healy-Rae about it.  I think I understood some of what he said.

Their last few elections in Kerry South have actually been pretty marginal: Jackie was elected under quota in both 2002 and 2007 and Michael similarly in 2011.  But Kerry representation in the Dáil wouldn't be the same without the famous cap...

[YL]

... and the Healy-Rae election song:
http://midkerryjournal.com/news/healy-rae-gets-truly-diverse-with-election-song/

[YL]

That's pretty out there even for a constituency poll.

The nomination of DH-R did suggest that there was the possibility that there might be enough votes out there for Healy-Raes to elect two of them.

What I have no feeling for is how many of those 1 Michael Healy-Rae votes are then going to go 2 Danny Healy-Rae.

[YL]

What would be the result of a FG-FF or FF-FG coalition? I'd imagine the junior partner would get PASOK/Lib Dem/FDP-ified and thereafter Irish politics would be polarized on the more traditional left vs. right lines.

Isn't an actual coalition between FG and FF hell freezing over territory?

[YL]

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

FG 27 (-)
FF 23 (+1)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 13 (-6)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 6 (+4)
SD 4 (+3)
Renua 2 (+1)
GP 2 (+1)

(Yes, I know the numbers add to 102)

Presumably the SP/SWP number is an outlier.

I don't really know who I should be rooting for in this election.  SDs are probably the best fit ideologically but aren't likely to be a major player.

[YL]

Current TDs elected are FF 12, FG 4, SF 3, SD 3 (their three outgoing TDs), Independent Alliance 2 and one other Independent (Naughten in Roscommon-Galway).

[YL]

Dublin Central count 6, 3 seater, quota 5,922

McDonald (SF) elected
Donohoe (FG) 3,945
Gannon (SD) 2,832
Fitzpatrick (FF) 2,655
Burke (Ind) 2,503
O'Sullivan (Ind) 2,377
Costello (Lab) 2,281
Perry (Ind) 1,492 to be eliminated

[YL]

Trot takes the lead in Don Laoghaire, but nobody past the quota yet.

Now elected.

Count 6, quota 14,810, 4 seater but one of them is the sitting Ceann Comhairle so only 3 seats

Boyd-Barrett (AAA-PBP) 15,718 elected
Bailey (FG) 12,422
O'Connor (FG) 12,393
Hanafin (FF) 10,221
Smyth (Lab) 7,165 to be eliminated

Presumably this means the two FGers will be elected.

[YL]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/boucherhayes/status/703648433106763776

Does that mean a narrow loser could challenge the result, Winchester 1997 style?

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

[YL]

Kildare South, count 4, quota 9,197, 3 seater

Heydon (FG) 10,321 and elected
O'Loughlin (FF) 7,905
Ó Feargaíl (FF) 7,166
Ryan (SF) 5,434
Wall (Lab) 5,154

Next step is the distribution of the FG surplus; I imagine this will move Wall ahead of Ryan and keep him in the race for a bit longer.

[YL]

Dublin Central count 6, 3 seater, quota 5,922

McDonald (SF) elected
Donohoe (FG) 3,945
Gannon (SD) 2,832
Fitzpatrick (FF) 2,655
Burke (Ind) 2,503
O'Sullivan (Ind) 2,377
Costello (Lab) 2,281
Perry (Ind) 1,492 to be eliminated

Count 7

Donohoe 3480
Gannon 3117
Burke 2822
Fitzpatrick 2810
O'Sullivan 2792
Costello 2345 and out

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

Count 8 has been completed with no change in the order.  Timmons next to go.

[YL]

Just Dublin Bay North (with its huge ballot paper), Louth, Cavan-Monaghan, Longford-Westmeath and Healy-Raeland still without a first count result

[YL]

Just Dublin Bay North (with its huge ballot paper), Louth, Cavan-Monaghan, Longford-Westmeath and Healy-Raeland still without a first count result

... and Louth is now in.  Adams tops the poll but not quite there on the first count.

[YL]

Dún Laoghaire finished, with Bailey and O'Connor (both FG) joining Boyd-Barrett.

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

Count 8 has been completed with no change in the order.  Timmons next to go.

Count 9, 2 seats left

Curran 7383
Kenny 6331
McNally 3235
Gogarty 3164
Keating 2725
Tuffy 2515 and out

[YL]

Kildare South, count 4, quota 9,197, 3 seater

Heydon (FG) 10,321 and elected
O'Loughlin (FF) 7,905
Ó Feargaíl (FF) 7,166
Ryan (SF) 5,434
Wall (Lab) 5,154

Next step is the distribution of the FG surplus; I imagine this will move Wall ahead of Ryan and keep him in the race for a bit longer.

Indeed, count 5, two seats left

O'Loughlin 8149
Ó Feargaíl 7343
Wall 5806
Ryan 5485 and out

[YL]

Dublin Bay South Count 1

FG * Murphy , E 16.5% 6567
FG O'Connell , K 13.6% 5399
FF O'Callaghan , J 11.5% 4575
GP Ryan , E 11.4% 4529
RN * Creighton , L 10.7% 4229
LAB * Humphreys , K 10.6% 4205
SF Andrews , C 9.5% 3774
SD Lynch , G 6.7% 2652
AAA-PBP Mooney , A 4.4% 1728
IND Flynn , M 3.8% 1525

terrible result for lucinda.

Eamon Ryan must be in a strong position here for the Greens.

[YL]

Dublin West, count 4, 4 seater, quota 8391

Varadkar (FG) 9021 and elected
Chambers (FF) 7330
Coppinger (AAA-PBP) 7011
Burton (Lab) 6769
Donnelly (SF) 6188
McGuinness (Ind Alliance) 3405 and out
O'Gorman (Green) 2088 and out

[YL]

Dublin Central count 6, 3 seater, quota 5,922

McDonald (SF) elected
Donohoe (FG) 3,945
Gannon (SD) 2,832
Fitzpatrick (FF) 2,655
Burke (Ind) 2,503
O'Sullivan (Ind) 2,377
Costello (Lab) 2,281
Perry (Ind) 1,492 to be eliminated

Count 7

Donohoe 3480
Gannon 3117
Burke 2822
Fitzpatrick 2810
O'Sullivan 2792
Costello 2345 and out

Counts 8 and 9 (McDonald's surplus)

Donohoe 4481
Gannon 3549
O'Sullivan 3214
Burke 3083
Fitzpatrick 2984 and out

[YL]

Dublin West, count 4, 4 seater, quota 8391

Varadkar (FG) 9021 and elected
Chambers (FF) 7330
Coppinger (AAA-PBP) 7011
Burton (Lab) 6769
Donnelly (SF) 6188
McGuinness (Ind Alliance) 3405 and out
O'Gorman (Green) 2088 and out

Now finished, with Coppinger, Chambers and Burton elected on the fifth count, Burton 918 ahead of Donnelly.

Burton is the first Labour TD elected.

[YL]

Kildare South, count 4, quota 9,197, 3 seater

Heydon (FG) 10,321 and elected
O'Loughlin (FF) 7,905
Ó Feargaíl (FF) 7,166
Ryan (SF) 5,434
Wall (Lab) 5,154

Next step is the distribution of the FG surplus; I imagine this will move Wall ahead of Ryan and keep him in the race for a bit longer.

Indeed, count 5, two seats left

O'Loughlin 8149
Ó Feargaíl 7343
Wall 5806
Ryan 5485 and out

The SF votes probably go to FF ahead of Labour, right?

Wall got 1058 and the two FFers got 625 and 877 respectively, so they are both elected, and this constituency finishes 2 FF 1 FG.

[YL]

Dublin Mid West, count 7, 4 seater, quota 8,621

Ó Brion (SF) elected
Fitzgerald (FG) elected
Curran (FF) 7,218
Kenny (AAA-PBP) 5,474
McNally (SD) 2,867
Gogarty (IA) 2,741
Keating (FG) 2,653
Tuffy (Lab) 2,355
Timmons (Ind) 1,318
Hennessy (WP) 613
Kivlehan (Green) 443
last two to be eliminated

Count 8 has been completed with no change in the order.  Timmons next to go.

Count 9, 2 seats left

Curran 7383
Kenny 6331
McNally 3235
Gogarty 3164
Keating 2725
Tuffy 2515 and out

Count 10, Keating overtook Gogarty

Curran 7685
Kenny 6542
McNally 3679
Keating 3640
Gogarty 3505 and out

Hard to see it not being Curran and Kenny getting the last two seats