United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[WD]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1747751843453604071?s=20

[WD]

Another round of "it's definitely 1992, trust us" in the i. Includes all those iron-clad arguments we've come to know and love:

The internal polls are better:
“Some of us are doubting the methodology they’re using,” one senior Tory source has said in response to Labour poll leads of more than 20 points. “Internal party polling is showing that it is a lot closer with Red Wall seats at 10 points and in some places we’re only 5 points behind.”

Labour's lead is soft:
A former Tory Cabinet minister told i that he believed Labour’s support was “wide but soft” and said: “We expect that [lead] to start to fade to 10 per cent or under and that makes the election a contest rather than a shoo-in for Labour. Being asked for your preference today is very different from how you are going to vote in six months.”

Byelection turnout is low, so there's no enthusiasm for Labour:
“The [by-election] results were not good for Labour,” another Tory MP told i. “In Wellingborough, they got around 100 more than 2019 when they should be way ahead. 2019 was a bad year. In Kingswood, they were 5000 less than 2019.

Who is this even for, at this stage?

The by-election stuff is less so cope and more a literal misunderstanding of how elections work. Labour got 500ish less votes in the ‘94 Dudley West by-election than at the 1992 GE in that seat. Clearly they were doomed….

[WD]

First poll to have the Tories below 20% since Truss I believe, and one of the few in the entire history of polling. Not the most reputable of pollsters but still quite amusing.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1765910523952918586?s=20

More reputable poll here, but still the same trend of the bottom falling out:

https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1765997110749483467?s=20

[WD]

Well…if there IS going to be an election in May, we’ll find in the next 10-12 days or so? We shall see.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1774143859053715776
The Tories are still Official Opposition, good poll for them.

Time to accept that < 100 Tory MPs is a realistic outcome here

[WD]

How much danger is Truss actually in?

[WD]

How much does it really matter in the end? Either they lose 200+ MPs next month, sometime in the summer, or in the fall.