United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[Torrain]

Some papers claiming that Sunak has virtually ruled out a May election, with the Sunday Times saying a further "fiscal event" is planned in the autumn.

Seems odd to have the PM publicly vacillate, and then assume that some anonymous briefings that "it's 100% going to be the autumn" will stop the speculation.

[WD]

Well…if there IS going to be an election in May, we’ll find in the next 10-12 days or so? We shall see.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well…if there IS going to be an election in May, we’ll find in the next 10-12 days or so? We shall see.

Indeed so, and some are suggesting this morning's news makes it more likely (even if that may still appear somewhat counter-intuitive to some of us)

If there *isn't* going to be a May poll, will Sunak make some sort of statement to confirm this?

Or maybe more likely, just keep schtum about the matter until the time to do so finally dribbles away.

[oldtimer]

Reform has gained it's first MP.

Lee Anderson, the Deputy Chairman of the Conservatives until 2 months ago, has defected.

His constituency of Ashfield is quite UKIPy, they where tied with the Conservatives in 2015, and Labour where 3rd last time behind a local Indy who's running again.

So he might have a chance of getting relected as a Reform candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No reason to believe that he's popular locally.

[IceAgeComing]

That's the thing with Lee Anderson right; people speak about him as if he was some local champion that had been around politics for years; and therefore building up some personal vote. He was elected as a Labour councillor in 2015 (and I suspect his being close to the incumbent Labour MP helped with that); campaigned for Labour in 2017 when the Tories had their biggest swing (Tory vote increased 19.3% in 2017; even as Labour's vote marginally increased and the Ashield Independents stood a candidate); then defected in 2018. In 2019 the Tory vote fell in Ashfield (by 2.4%): the reason he won was because Labour fell hard and Zazrozny jumped into second.

I think its fair to see that Ashfield will be a constituency where national polling will be of limited use with the presence of the Ashfield Independents complicating things (they control the local council and hold most of the relevant seats on the County Council as well; but are facing some troubles and Zadrozny is currently being prosecuted for tax evasion and other things); and also Anderson (who has some media notoriety which may well attract attention to his campaign) meaning that it will be a very complex campaign. I suspect it'll be Labour vs Zadrozny; had Anderson not been booted from the Tories I would suspect there was an outside shot he could sneak through the middle but as a Reform candidate I think that will split the right vote and eliminates that chance. That's the thing; the Con+Brxt vote in 2019 was only 44.2%; Zadrozny had 27.6%, Labour 24.4%. For Anderson (or the Tories) to hold on they'd need that 44% to go very strongly for one candidate and not to leave to Labour (or the Independent) instead which goes against all recent elections so feels very unlikely.

[JimJamUK]

It’s worth noting that despite increasing their seat numbers, there was actually a substantial swing away from the Ashfield Independents last year (especially once you focus on only the parts of Ashfield Council in Ashfield constituency). They still dominated of course, but Labour (and to some extent the Tories as well) look a lot irrelevant than you might think at first glance.

FWIW, Reform and the Ashfield Independents are both fighting over a lot of the same voters (the formers paltry 5% in 2019 shows this), and with the latter on paper much more relevant it is more likely to split this vote rather than coalesce it around Reform. As others have said, this is very good news for Labour who want a weakened Ashfield Independent vote and now get a weakened Conservative vote as well.

[Coldstream]

I honestly think whoever wins Ashfield will get in with under 35% of the vote, potentially even under 30%. Reform will throw a lot at it (and whilst I agree Anderson isn’t beloved, it’d be wrong to think he’s despised too).

 Zadrozny is a ruthless campaigner, his legal issues haven’t stopped him til now - when I went there in 2019 I literally had someone say “the deep state want to take him down”. 2019 was a lot more febrile than now, but I’d be wary of underestimating his support too.

Labour will go hard at it, and we’ve got a good chance, but Zadrozny & Anderson will both have much stronger name recognition and potentially more resources (or at least equal). It’s one I really wouldn’t want to call.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1767821280688927010
Was waiting for a few more polls - but we now seem to have a trend. Across pollsters, and several aggregators, the Tories are being pushed down to end-stage Truss numbers. To be fair, it’s been an awful fortnight for them, so the picture may improve - but it’s kinda wild things have gotten *this bad* again.

[JimJamUK]

Was waiting for a few more polls - but we now seem to have a trend. Across pollsters, and several aggregators, the Tories are being pushed down to end-stage Truss numbers. To be fair, it’s been an awful fortnight for them, so the picture may improve - but it’s kinda wild things have gotten *this bad* again.

The comfort for the Tories, and it is only modest comfort, is that since the Truss debacle the switchers have noticeably moved to Reform rather than Labour. Given the limited evidence of actual Reform voters, that suggests the Tories would in practice poll somewhat better in an actual general election than polling suggests. But given this is all in comparison the Truss era popularity…

[Harry Hayfield]

I honestly think whoever wins Ashfield will get in with under 35% of the vote, potentially even under 30%. Reform will throw a lot at it (and whilst I agree Anderson isn’t beloved, it’d be wrong to think he’s despised too).

 Zadrozny is a ruthless campaigner, his legal issues haven’t stopped him til now - when I went there in 2019 I literally had someone say “the deep state want to take him down”. 2019 was a lot more febrile than now, but I’d be wary of underestimating his support too.

Labour will go hard at it, and we’ve got a good chance, but Zadrozny & Anderson will both have much stronger name recognition and potentially more resources (or at least equal). It’s one I really wouldn’t want to call.

Ashfield along with Finchley and Golders Green are the two constituencies I am not confident about the forecasts for that I generate. They both come out as three way marginals (Ashfield, Lab and Finchley, Lib Dem) but I do not believe that those parties will win it in my heart (Ashfield Independents and Labour)

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that even the LibDems are expecting their vote to nosedive in Finchley next time.

[JimJamUK]

I think that even the LibDems are expecting their vote to nosedive in Finchley next time.

I mean, anyone predicting a Lib Dem victory in Finchley could take a look at the last local elections there… (see also Kensington and Cities of London constituencies).

[YL]

Sunak has just said that there will not be a General Election on 2 May.

[TheTide]

Sunak has just said that there will not be a General Election on 2 May.

On the ITV West Country News. Probably in the hope that it makes it lower key than if Downing Street had directly told the national media/press.

[Duke of York]

Sunak has just said that there will not be a General Election on 2 May.

well then the local elections in May are going to be even more brutal than last years.

[Pericles]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

[Duke of York]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

having a confidence election and perhaps a new leader is unlikely to reverse their brutal poll numbers.

[Sir Mohamed]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

Only have been 3 PMs over this term... just one more. Just one more.

[CumbrianLefty]

October 10th now being briefed as a possible GE date.

If this is seriously planned, then there will need to be some guidance regarding the party conferences sooner rather than later (as they would need to be cancelled if it is indeed going to be held then)

[brucejoel99]

October 10th now being briefed as a possible GE date.

If this is seriously planned, then there will need to be some guidance regarding the party conferences sooner rather than later (as they would need to be cancelled if it is indeed going to be held then)

If it's really October 10th, then kudos to MI6 for somehow winning the day on their warnings last year about a simultaneous campaign happening the last month of the U.S. presidential.

[oldtimer]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

having a confidence election and perhaps a new leader is unlikely to reverse their brutal poll numbers.

No one really knows, except the certainty of a record defeat under the present course.

Take 1995 for example, everyone but a majority of Conservative MP's knew that they where going to be smashed, yet they voted to keep John Major and maintain their course to oblivion.

Heseltine and Portillo regretted that they lost their only chance to be PM even for a day, "What if" ect.

[Tintrlvr]

I think that even the LibDems are expecting their vote to nosedive in Finchley next time.

I mean, anyone predicting a Lib Dem victory in Finchley could take a look at the last local elections there… (see also Kensington and Cities of London constituencies).

To a degree it depends on candidate selection by the Lib Dems (or, really, if they have viable candidate options to start with). Has that happened yet in any of those seats?

[CumbrianLefty]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

having a confidence election and perhaps a new leader is unlikely to reverse their brutal poll numbers.

No one really knows, except the certainty of a record defeat under the present course.

Take 1995 for example, everyone but a majority of Conservative MP's knew that they where going to be smashed, yet they voted to keep John Major and maintain their course to oblivion.

Heseltine and Portillo regretted that they lost their only chance to be PM even for a day, "What if" ect.

It isn't just that tbh, its that those in the Tories who want a "change" can't agree on what the change should be. Back in 1995 there was an obvious alternative (Hezza) if Major was indeed forced out.

[JimJamUK]

I mean, anyone predicting a Lib Dem victory in Finchley could take a look at the last local elections there… (see also Kensington and Cities of London constituencies).

To a degree it depends on candidate selection by the Lib Dems (or, really, if they have viable candidate options to start with). Has that happened yet in any of those seats?

They had viable candidates in 2019 because all of them were sitting MPs riding the wave of remainer backlash. The fact they won next to nothing in the 2022 elections (despite Lib Dems usually doing much better at local elections) suggests they haven’t used the 2019 result as a foundation, but rather it was a blip. Compare to somewhere like Wimbledon where they have solidified themselves as the local, and likely national, alternative to the Tories. The best of their 3 star candidates, Luciana Berger, isn't even a Lib Dem anymore.