Who will succeed Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister, and when?

[DavidB.]

Welcome to the forum, parrotguy, and quite an interesting back-and-forth between you guys here.

I totally agree with hnv1's analysis on this and think that as long as a) the left is deeply distrusted by most and in shambles, b) the idea that Benjamin Netanyahu stands for security isn't dispelled, c) the right has the haredim's back on their pet issues, and d) no major status quo changes occur, Netanyahu will be able to continue to govern, even in the event that the Likud would lose seats. The numbers simply aren't there for the left/"center". Within Likud, Bibi is simply too strong right now.

His leadership will only be ended through a) a big change in the status quo (a badly managed war, a sudden huge boycott causing the costs of living to skyrocket and become even more insane) in combination with a perfect storm for a centrist alternative, b) judicial charges, or c) by his own decision. Option a) seems very unlikely, especially so because events that radically alter the status-quo can (and are, in fact, often likely to) lead to a rally-around-the-flag effect too. I'd place my money on b) or c).

[Hnv1]

Welcome to the forum, parrotguy, and quite an interesting back-and-forth between you guys here.

I totally agree with hnv1's analysis on this and think that as long as a) the left is deeply distrusted by most and in shambles, b) the idea that Benjamin Netanyahu stands for security isn't dispelled, c) the right has the haredim's back on their pet issues, and d) no major status quo changes occur, Netanyahu will be able to continue to govern, even in the event that the Likud would lose seats. The numbers simply aren't there for the left/"center". Within Likud, Bibi is simply too strong right now.

His leadership will only be ended through a) a big change in the status quo (a badly managed war, a sudden huge boycott causing the costs of living to skyrocket and become even more insane) in combination with a perfect storm for a centrist alternative, b) judicial charges, or c) by his own decision. Option a) seems very unlikely, especially so because events that radically alter the status-quo can (and are, in fact, often likely to) lead to a rally-around-the-flag effect too. I'd place my money on b) or c).

After reading the recent writ nisi and some of alleged facts of the case I'm actually going to place my money on b) with some bookie. Even if he's not found guilty (but that will mean his son will have to take the bullet) he will still be indicted and cannot act as a minister while the trial is on going.

And I'm not even starting with his wife legal problems

[America Needs R'hllor]

On another note, do you think that there is any chance of the Haredim and Jewish Home not being part of a functioning government? In my opinion, it can only happen 1. Without Bibi and 2. With one of the major parties (Likud and Labour or Likud and Yesh Atid) weaker than the winner's party but still strong enough to form a unity government with centrist parties. It seems to me, increasingly, that a majority of Israelis want the Rabbinate out of their lives, supports gay rights, etc. It's just not the main issue for people yet, but that train business got close.

[DavidB.]

On another note, do you think that there is any chance of the Haredim and Jewish Home not being part of a functioning government? In my opinion, it can only happen 1. Without Bibi and 2. With one of the major parties (Likud and Labour or Likud and Yesh Atid) weaker than the winner's party but still strong enough to form a unity government with centrist parties. It seems to me, increasingly, that a majority of Israelis want the Rabbinate out of their lives, supports gay rights, etc. It's just not the main issue for people yet, but that train business got close.

The conflict between Bibi and Lapid made any government without the haredim very unlikely -- as long as Lapid sticks around, that is. The 2013-2014 experiment basically failed and I don't think Bibi or any other Likud leader would be willing to give it another shot, especially because this is not just a clash between parties but also a clash between the worldview of the electorates of Likud on the one hand and "centrist" parties on the other hand (Kulanu being an exceptional case because of Kahlon's appeal to Mizrahi voters -- just look at Kulanu's electoral map of 2015). Basically Likud voters hate "leftists" (whether they are actually leftists matters less than perception) more than haredim, and haredim hate leftists more than "traditional" people or hawks. Cooperating with the haredim is much less troublesome and inconvenient for Bibi than cooperating with centrists, and we all know he doesn't give a toss about the policy consequences.

As for JH, they like to bark, but they have been a loyal ally of Bibi and I don't expect that to change anytime soon, though some trouble could occur with Tekuma. But ultimately JH are natural allies and given Likud's pivotal position in Israeli politics, the impossibility of a non-Likud coalition, and Bibi's dislike of cooperating with centrist parties, a coalition without JH seems unlikely, though it could happen if a majority is reached with Likud, UTJ, Shas and Lieberman already. A coalition without JH is more likely than a coalition without the haredim.

As for the rabbinate: yes, a majority probably disagree with what's going on there, just as a majority of Israelis support gay marriage. But the status-quo is going to change on none of these issues because of the influence of the haredim (which partly stems from the electoral system), and most voters are ultimately swayed by other concerns and issues -- especially those who reluctantly support change but don't care that much and eventually end up voting Likud anyway, which is a big group. I don't think anything is going to change anytime soon on all of these issues, which means politics is out of sync with public opinion. This inflexibility is obviously something that makes politics deeply depressing to many Israelis, as you probably know better than I...

[Hnv1]

On another note, do you think that there is any chance of the Haredim and Jewish Home not being part of a functioning government? In my opinion, it can only happen 1. Without Bibi and 2. With one of the major parties (Likud and Labour or Likud and Yesh Atid) weaker than the winner's party but still strong enough to form a unity government with centrist parties. It seems to me, increasingly, that a majority of Israelis want the Rabbinate out of their lives, supports gay rights, etc. It's just not the main issue for people yet, but that train business got close.

It's possible to form governments without the haredi, but they are very easy going partners. Problem for Labour that unlike previous times the haredi voters don't want to form coalitions with them.
JH became a right win lg coalition only party, unlike the Mafdal which was a coalition partner for everybody. I suppose if herzog were to crawl in we'll see the JH out.

Israelis don't care enough for civic issues and soft Likud voters don't go voting according to them. Those who really dislike the orthodox gripe are already voting left of Likud.