Which states swing D/R?

[DPKdebator]

Discuss. Right now I'm thinking something like this:

[GAinDC]

Discuss. Right now I'm thinking something like this:

If AZ, GA, PA and WI swing right that means a Biden win, or do you expect any Biden 2020 states to flip to Trump?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I don’t think GA is swinging left otherwise it looks reasonable.

[seskoog]

Looks fairly reasonable to me

[Malarkey Decider]

This is like a Biden +2 Map:




With darker colors representing swing of greater than 2%.

[iceman]

Discuss. Right now I'm thinking something like this:

8 out of the 10 most populous states swing R could translate to a very tight popular vote.

I think Utah and Wisconsin swings R. I don’t see South Carolina swinging to D either.

Biden is so unpopular in Missouri and Indiana that I don’t see those states swinging to him either and both states have quite a Trumpy electorate.

[DPKdebator]

I don’t think GA is swinging left otherwise it looks reasonable.

Georgia is one that I'm still not sure about. I think Atlanta population growth may cancel out a rightward swing amongst existing residents, although it seems that the growth has slowed compared to the 2010s; ditto for South Carolina. Rs could be maxed out in the Mid-South and the Plains (as well as IN/MO), which is why I have them swinging left although the upper Plains and upper Mountain West are also coin tosses. Northern New England and Arizona inch left because of abortion, while southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic swing right because of illegal immigration and RFK hurting Biden there. I suppose my map is a bit ambiguous since I used the Atlas color system, which only accounts for swings in units of 5%. It's probably too conservative of an estimate, but here it is with a bucket for <2%:

[robocop]

Discuss. Right now I'm thinking something like this:

Sorry but which colour is which on this map?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Discuss. Right now I'm thinking something like this:

Sorry but which colour is which on this map?

Red going more democratic
Blue going more republican

It makes sense because of third parties which means that the leading candidate is more at risk of losing a portion of their margin.

However what i'm not sure off, what are we talking about: raw margin change, a trend.

Because I see 3 maps that equally divide the states between states that will swing R and swing D? Isn't that a trend?

Like because I believe the majority of states will be more Republcian than those in 2020 but relative to the nation, some states might swing less hard R and therefore trend D relative to the nation.

Basically, what are we discussing?

Secondly, this is very hard to do because of the independents that will be a factor. I basically believe every democratic state will swing right by a bit, barring a few exceptions like maybe Hawaii or so. Not because of Trump doing better but because of independents eating into Biden's vote as well turnout dropping which would favour Trump here in the deep blue states.

For trending, i suppose most of the heartland, alaska and appalachians swings left and most of the Acela Corridor, West coast and Rust Belt swings right wing.