2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[S019]

Jaime Harrison (D-SC) has announced his campaign to challenge Lindsey Graham.

This belongs in the SC Megathread

He formed an explaratory committee, too look at the possibility of running

Anyway, he can run and be steamrolled by 15 points

[S019]

GOP are supposedly trying to get Ngyuen for CA48. I see no reason why her fate won't be similar that of Kim - and I actually like her. There are a few differences about the races and the districts, but the prevailing trends will still be the same.

Can you provide a link, I’d like to read about this

[S019]

Early PPP polling had Clinton winning AR, KY, and LA in 2016, it’s just not reliable

This, the other PPP poll, and Emerson belong in the trash

[S019]

https://abc13.com/politics/combat-veteran-to-challenge-fletcher-for-congressional-seat/5229241/


Fletcher has republican african american challenger

John James 2.0.

This district will be Lean D and Fletcher has a sizable advantage.

[S019]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Likely D——>Tilt D

Makes this much more competitive, but even Lance lost this district, he should have went for Gov in 2021 or ran in a Dem midterm

[S019]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

[S019]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

[S019]

Apparently national R's are trying to recruit ALLEN WEST to run against Allred in TX-32:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Several names have emerged as potential contenders against Allred. National Republicans have expressed interest in former Florida congressman Allen West, who now lives in North Texas, as well as former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, a Trump appointee in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. She's been mentioned as a possible successor to Rep. Kenny Marchant of Coppell.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Bring. It. On. Betas.

This is a disaster, recruiting a carpetbagger who lost in 2012, to someone who managed to lose by more than Clinton in 2016

They should just run Pete Sessions again

[S019]

Gary Peters raised $1.9 million in Q1 which is apparently a record for a Michigan Senate race. So at least he seems to be taking his race a little more seriously than Debbie Stabenow.

Peters is Bill Nelson esque (anonymous, could face a challenger with high name recognition) and I could see him underperform the Dem by 1-2

I think Trump will lose MI by 2-4, because it will actually be treated as a swing state

But if he faces a strong challenger like Dave Trott or John James, he can certainly underperform the Democrat

Currently, I view MI-SEN as Tossup/Tilt D

[S019]

According to the Denver Post, Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) raised $2 million

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/11/cory-gardner-2020-mike-johnston/

[S019]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

If it’s 2016-esque close I can easily see that happening.

I don't think Michigan will even be 2016 close unless we have a weak Democratic nominee (which is possible, but I don't think Sanders will be the nominee).  Pennsylvania was a fluke; I think we'll be good there against Trump.  Michigan depends on who we nominate, but if we lose Michigan then we were never going to win.  Minnesota and Wisconsin worry me more than Michigan and Pennsylvania tbh.  Florida and ME-2 are probably fool's gold though (certainly not tipping point states).

MN is basically fools gold, the close race there is because Dems thought it was Safe D and just did not turn out

This reminds me of Charlie Cook's #analysis that MN is more competitive than MI and NH

NH, MI, and PA are Tossup

MN is Lean D

[S019]

Peters is not comparable to Bill Nelson. He's managed to raise almost $2M in the first quarter - that indicates that he's taking this race seriously. Nelson slept until August/September 2018 because he thought Scott would be weak like Harris or Mack IV. Peters may be boring/anonymous, but you don't become the only Democrat in an twelve-person freshman Senate class without real political skills.

Michigan is also a lot kinder to Democrats than Florida, considering that there are NO statewide elected Republicans there (out of five positions), in comparison to Florida, where there is only one statewide Democrat (out of six). Agree that he's probably the second-most vulnerable Senate Democrat after Jones, but there is a HUGE gap between the two. Bear in mind that Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since the 1994 R wave, and that the Senator who won that year lost to Stabenow in 2000.

Bill Nelson also raised 2 Million in Q1, and continued raising massive amounts (in addition to outside PACS). He had over 3.6 million on hand after Q1. Just saying, don't undervalue John James.

James is a B-lister and Peters [unlike Stabenow] isn’t asleep at the wheel; this race is is Likely D at worst.

Sorry but no. We don't know what kind of a year 2020 will be. Michigan is clearly swinging away from us and assuming a close election, this could be quite competitive

I think Lean D is fair until we see how the race unfolds further (polling, who announces, national environment, etc.). There bizarrely seems to be two camps on Atlas regarding MI-Sen: one that thinks Peters is safe and one that thinks he's the next Bill Nelson/incredibly weak incumbent who is destined to lose

I mean, Lean D makes sense if you think Trump will lose(which is a big possibility) but I just can't see Peters winning and Trump Winning MI at the same time.

If it’s 2016-esque close I can easily see that happening.

I don't think Michigan will even be 2016 close unless we have a weak Democratic nominee (which is possible, but I don't think Sanders will be the nominee).  Pennsylvania was a fluke; I think we'll be good there against Trump.  Michigan depends on who we nominate, but if we lose Michigan then we were never going to win.  Minnesota and Wisconsin worry me more than Michigan and Pennsylvania tbh.  Florida and ME-2 are probably fool's gold though (certainly not tipping point states).

MN is basically fools gold, the close race there is because Dems thought it was Safe D and just did not turn out

This reminds me of Charlie Cook's #analysis that MN is more competitive than MI and NH

NH, MI, and PA are Tossup

MN is Lean D

Trump approval ratings in NH:

WMUR, Feb 13: 41/57
Emerson, Feb 22: 43/52
Morning Consult, March 1: 42/55
ARG, March 28: 34/58

New Hampshire is not a tossup.

43-53 is his actual approval

That is close to several of those polls

[S019]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

[S019]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

Please explain why, I think he'd be a great Congressman

[S019]

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D-NJ) raised only $121K in the first quarter...a fraction of what all other NJ Democratic freshmen raised.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/van-drew-struggles-to-raise-money/

Honestly I'm shocked by how weak this guy is turning out to be. He only won his primary with 57% against three nobodies, he won only 53% against a white supremacist with zero money and staff, and now he's already lagging behind.

I think he's still the best candidate the Democrats have in NJ-02 (my worry is that his part of South Jersey is drifting away from the Democrats), but I don't feel too confident.

He strikes me as a guy that will probably only serve the three terms requrired to qualify for a Congressional pension and then cash out. That's if he's fortunate enough to survive two more elections in that seat. Bob Andrzejczak would probably be better than Van Drew here anyhow.

JVD is sleepwalking and Trump will likely win this district, this is at least Tilt R, if Grossman jumps in, I'll move it to Tilt/Lean D

[S019]

Rematch underway:

https://twitter.com/Marie4Congress/status/1118129266179366913

Guess who (unsurprisingly) endorsed her:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1118319418453438465

Go Lipinski

Ehh, I guess House Dems have now blacklisted Kirsten Gillibrand  (not that it would help or hurt her in any way)

[S019]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1120327456634728449

Lol

Likely D————->Tilt D

Our recruitment is much better this cycle, but it’s coming from the wrong places

[S019]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

[S019]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

umm... Heitkamp and Landrieu were not running in tough, R trending terrain. While Horn's seat is tough, she won an upset victory for a reason. OK-05 will probably be within single digits on the pres level in 2020, and I think she loses 52-48.

Yeah, I forgot Kendra Horn is an Unbeatable Titan ^TM, she’ll outrun the Democrat by 25 points

Likely R———>Safe D

[S019]

GA-07 is lean DEM.

Yeah, I agree, I actually think that GA-06 is likelier to vote GOP (but is Tilt D), because GOp has 2 good candidates in GA-06, they have no one, here

[S019]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1122833886797549568?s=21

<10% chance she wins the primary...

Who do you think, will run, this is a district where I think running a retread (Dave Brat or Eric Cantor), may be the best option

[S019]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1122833886797549568?s=21

<10% chance she wins the primary...

Who do you think, will run, this is a district where I think running a retread (Dave Brat or Eric Cantor), may be the best option

Haha what? Are you blind? Nick F$cking Freitas dude.

Do VA Reps really want to nominate the person who lost to Corey Stewart in a primary

[S019]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1122833886797549568?s=21

<10% chance she wins the primary...

Who do you think, will run, this is a district where I think running a retread (Dave Brat or Eric Cantor), may be the best option

Haha what? Are you blind? Nick F$cking Freitas dude.

Do VA Reps really want to nominate the person who lost to Corey Stewart in a primary

Clearly Mike Castle would have been a garbage candidate.

That’s different Castle has tons of name recognition and is an institution in DE politics, no one knew who Nick Freitas was before 2018, he was an obsure, irrelevant state legislator

[S019]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

IA-01: Tossup----->Lean R

[S019]

Golden running for reelection. This is like the 6th most 2016 Republican district and like the 3rd most Trumpy district that a Democrat currently holds.

He doesn't get the message that he'll be a one-termer, GOP should hold ME SEN, given that Gideon probably can't beat Collins, also I will be eating popcorn watching Golden's quixotic reelection bid, go down in flames.