2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1120327456634728449

Lol

Likely D————->Tilt D

Our recruitment is much better this cycle, but it’s coming from the wrong places

I would wager it is lean D, Evelynn Sanlinguine does not even seem like that great of a candidate though.

Why not exactly? Rauner won this district.

1. Because it is Rauner not Sanlinguine at the head of the ticket, 2. Casten is the incumbent now, 3. Most obvious one that pains me that I have to even point this out, Casten is a WAY better candidate than Pritzker, especially for this district, 4. Casten knocked off a good incumbent in Roskam, who also was a better candidate than Sanlinguine, by more than Clinton won the district (d wave year I will give that to you), 5. this district is the kind leaving the GOP at least for now and it probably is not returning in 2020, 6. this district is much bluer on the federal level than the state level. Anyone else please feel free to add on. And I am one of the more bearish dems on this forum. I think that the house is tilt D to tossup, and dems barely keep the majority by like just several votes as opposed to the 30s now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL all Casten has to do is tie her to Rauner and he's safe for reelection.

[Young Conservative]

LOL all Casten has to do is tie her to Rauner and he's safe for reelection.

Why would that be bad in a district Rauner won?

[Zaybay]

Gotta agree with YC on this one, I dont think using Rauner in a district he won in 2018 will be an effective way for Casten to defeat Sanguinetti. Perhaps Healthcare or just plain old Trump will be more effective.

Edit: Wrong name, whoops

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gotta agree with YC on this one, I dont think using Rauner in a district he won in 2018 will be an effective way for Casten to defeat Sanlinguine. Perhaps Healthcare or just plain old Trump will be more effective.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1121041821377937409?s=21

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1121041821377937409?s=21

Kendra Horn right now:

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1121041821377937409?s=21

Kendra Horn right now:

Eh, Trump only won it by 13 points in 2016 and Oklahoma County will probably trend D a decent amount, so I very much doubt she loses by Blanche margins. Maybe by like 7-8?

[lfromnj]

FYI obama won IA 1st by the same amount as Trump won Ok 5th. Horn's odds aren't that good but she could easily be a Rod Blum.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1121041821377937409?s=21

Good candidate, but Mick Cornett would make it safe R.

[wesmoorenerd]

Horn won for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

[S019]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

[Bidenworth2020]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

umm... Heitkamp and Landrieu were not running in tough, R trending terrain. While Horn's seat is tough, she won an upset victory for a reason. OK-05 will probably be within single digits on the pres level in 2020, and I think she loses 52-48.

[S019]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

umm... Heitkamp and Landrieu were not running in tough, R trending terrain. While Horn's seat is tough, she won an upset victory for a reason. OK-05 will probably be within single digits on the pres level in 2020, and I think she loses 52-48.

Yeah, I forgot Kendra Horn is an Unbeatable Titan ^TM, she’ll outrun the Democrat by 25 points

Likely R———>Safe D

[wesmoorenerd]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

All three of those candidates had significant political shifts in their term, including the Tea Party and the rise of Trump, that shunted their states to the right and increased polarization.

Horn isn't going to lose by 20 two years after she won in a likely similar political environment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 19-21, 1992 RV

Generic Congressional ballot: D 45, R 34

I think this is the first double-digit lead I've seen from anyone for the 2020 GCB.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

umm... Heitkamp and Landrieu were not running in tough, R trending terrain. While Horn's seat is tough, she won an upset victory for a reason. OK-05 will probably be within single digits on the pres level in 2020, and I think she loses 52-48.

Yeah, I forgot Kendra Horn is an Unbeatable Titan ^TM, she’ll outrun the Democrat by 25 points

Likely R———>Safe D

Tsk tsk, you know what my bro meant.

[Gracile]

Obviously winning your home congressional district in a failed statewide run makes you a shoo-in to get elected to the House, just ask Congressman Paul Davis and Congressman Dino Rossi.

[Bidenworth2020]

Gotta agree with YC on this one, I dont think using Rauner in a district he won in 2018 will be an effective way for Casten to defeat Sanguinetti. Perhaps Healthcare or just plain old Trump will be more effective.

Edit: Wrong name, whoops

Yes, clearly JB Pritzker is pretty much a generic D without any real scandals or anything that might have hurt him among these types of voters 🙄

This is not the strongest argument against this point though. He basically matched Clinton statewide and yet underperformed her by 13 in IL-06. At the federal level though, this seat is safe d.

[lfromnj]

Gotta agree with YC on this one, I dont think using Rauner in a district he won in 2018 will be an effective way for Casten to defeat Sanguinetti. Perhaps Healthcare or just plain old Trump will be more effective.

Edit: Wrong name, whoops

Yes, clearly JB Pritzker is pretty much a generic D without any real scandals or anything that might have hurt him among these types of voters 🙄

This is not the strongest argument against this point though. He basically matched Clinton statewide and yet underperformed her by 13 in IL-06. At the federal level though, this seat is safe d.

Clearly IL 12th is winnable coz #populist Pritzker won it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

She wanted to run against Allred in 2020, would have been a terrible opponent, losing by 10-15 points, RIP though.

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/24/missy-shorey-first-woman-elected-dallas-county-gop-chair-dies/

[Gracile]

IL-03: Marie Newman (D) has fallen victim to the DCCC's incumbent-protecting vendor policy

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IL-03: Marie Newman (D) has fallen victim to the DCCC's incumbent-protecting vendor policy

This sort of whining really isn’t a good look.  It makes Newman sound entitled and generally naive about how politics works and I say that as someone who hopes Newman beats Lipinski this time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IL-03: Marie Newman (D) has fallen victim to the DCCC's incumbent-protecting vendor policy

Good

[Gracile]

GA-07: State Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero (D) has filed to run.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1122221405863415809