Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
Posts: 46,090
Political Matrix E: -3.48, S: -4.70
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2015, 08:22:03 AM » |
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Yes, I think the black turnout rate falling back to 57% is unrealistic as well. It may drop some, but I would be amazed if it fell below 60%, unless turnout is down for all groups, because of a general alienation from politics. A more interesting question to me, is whether white working class turnout will go up. It's been down quite a bit is my impression. I noted elsewhere just how amazed I was at how low the white turnout was in the mountains of VA in 2008 (VA-09 in particular) - far below the black turnout in the state, even the rural black turnout. I doubt if it bounced back up in 2012.
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