Arizona redistricting goes to Supreme Court

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  Might a ruling on this also affect a governor's ability to veto redistricting?  California would presumably outweigh everything else, unless the FDF initiative went down with it in Florida.

[Skill and Chance]

I hope that it will lead to a constitutional amendment (would probably have to be by the state conventions method) that would bar politicians from drawing their own districts.  Period.

[Skill and Chance]

I just don't understand the GOP reasoning on this. They have A LOT more to lose than the Democrats. In exchange for 2 and maybe 3 seats in Arizona, the Dems could easily turn Cali into a 48-5 map up from 38-15. Not to mention Dems likely gain another 3 seats in Washington state as it is democratic controlled.

Those dozen seats is only the start:
Let's say Dems win the NJ governorship in 2017. A 6-6 map can easily become 10-2 by packing the GOP vote in conservative northwest jersey and the jersey shore into two districts. New York has several GOP state senators in seats that vote democratic nationally and it may only be a matter of time before they become wiped out like southern dems were in the 90s and early 00s. Add another 4-5 or so seats to democrats in NY.

Now if the Dems control governorships in PA, VA, WI, MI, OH, FL in 2020 they can wipe out a GOP gerrymander with or without the Supreme Court ruling on this redistricting case. That alone would cancel a dozen or so GOP held seats. This doesn't even mention the possibly of democrats winning the governorships in GA and AZ in 2018 or winning everything in Colorado, Nevada.

Overall just with CA, WA, NJ, NY the democrats could gain 15-20 seats alone, basically wiping out the GOP house majority. Factoring in the other possibility of the Dems gaining governorships in the above mentioned states and it looks like a 25-30 seat democratic gain alone. The GOP should be very careful what they wish for.

On the flip side, it could invalidate Fair Districts Florida, in which case, the GOP could go for 20R/7D there and, less importantly, IA could be gerrymandered 3R/1D. 

So it would be:

CA: R-10
WA: R-2 (can't really do a safe 9/1)
NJ: R-4

and

AZ: D-3
FL: D-3
IA: D-1

Net would be D+7, and that's if D's can get full control of WA/NJ back.  But remember, it blocks any attempts to impose commissions in other states that have the referendum.  Ohio for example could be locked in at 8R/8D with a commission and Michigan could be 7R/7D.  Also, the initiative could be used to force fair maps in UT (SLC Dem district), NE (where NE-02 could lean D in the 2020's) and IL (huge R net gain).

[Skill and Chance]

Horrifying thought: What if they rule that even governors have no say in redistricting?  The entire South and non-IL/MN Midwest would be GOP gerrymanders for the next 50 years.  The 58+% Obama states would also be monstrosities for the Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

But why would the GOP be okay with this? They really stand to lose so much. They pretty much already control all the big red states without commissions while Dems are restricted in Cali, Washington, New Jersey. If Ds won those 3 and took the New York State senate in a big 2020, that's probably a gain of 14-18 seats right there.

Now let's say Gwen Graham wins the Florida governorship in 2018 and the courts draw the congressional and legislative maps after she vetoes GOP proposals. With changing demographics the Ds win the Florida legislature and then control another big state.

Also look at PA if Wolf wins again and can't rule out Ds winning governors in WI, MI, OH to at least force a court drawn neutral map. Democrats can show outrage at this if the Supreme Court actually rules on it (something tells me they'll dismiss it or not really decide anything) but overturning the Arizona commission almost certainly helps Democrats more than the GOP.

Unless their next step is to overturn the 1930's precedent discussed above that allows gubernatorial vetoes of redistricting prior to 2021.  I wouldn't put it past this SCOTUS.

[Skill and Chance]

Every dem should hope the Supreme Court essentially lets us trade 3 seats in Arizona for dozens more in California New Jersey and washington.

Don't forget New York!

The legislature referred the NY commission system to the ballot, so that one probably only falls if Iowa also falls.