Odds that Trump runs in 2024 if he loses this year?

[Kyng]

Very low, I think.

For most of the GOP establishment, and about half of the primary voters, Trump wasn't the candidate they wanted: he was the candidate they were stuck with. As of right now, these people are lining up behind Trump, simply because that's the only viable path to get their conservative policy agenda enacted. However, should Trump lose re-election, these people will turn back into active opponents: they'll want nothing to do with Trump and his brand after he lost them an eminently-winnable election.

Furthermore, Trump only won the primary in 2016 because he was bringing something new to the table, that the voters wanted, but none of the other candidates was offering. He won't have that luxury in 2024: most of the candidates will be '#MAGA' candidates to one degree or another. There will be a younger version of Trump who has emerged as the leader of that movement, or maybe several candidates vying for that position - but I expect Trump himself will be considered yesterday's news.

Besides, I suspect he prefers dishing out insults on Twitter anyway.