TX-SEN: True to Form

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Abbott and Cruz, if they win will likely be in a single digit margin.

There are no signs that Abbott is even remotely in danger of losing reelection. And the only reason the Senate race is getting so much attention is because Democrats hope that this is the third seat they will pick up (after NV and AZ) while holding all of their seats.

I don't think it's as strategic as all that. I think Cruz is well known and deeply hated, #blueTexas has been a meme for long enough, and Beto is a young (for a politician) good looking (for a politician) candidate, and so the educated/politically active portion of the Democratic base that makes small-medium donations is excited about the race, and so drives national Democratic attention.

[Kamala]

(One of the) Castro(s) out.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/joaquin-castro-ted-cruz-senate-beto-orourke

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I don't think it's as strategic as all that. I think Cruz is well known and deeply hated, #blueTexas has been a meme for long enough, and Beto is a young (for a politician) good looking (for a politician) candidate, and so the educated/politically active portion of the Democratic base that makes small-medium donations is excited about the race, and so drives national Democratic attention.

Cruz is despised by Democrats and some Trump supporters, but that's not enough for him to lose in a state like Texas. Most Republicans will come home on election day and he was never going to get any crossover support from Democrats or left-leaning Independents anyway. #BlueTexas is not a thing yet either. Trump was easily the worst Republican for that state and still won it by 9. If this were a state like Missouri, I would agree with you, but TX is way too Republican and inelastic to vote out a sitting Republican Senator. Also, Cruz isn't an awful candidate just because he lost to Trump.

I'd rate it Likely R for now (if only because Trump is president), but Cruz probably wins relatively easily on election day. I agree that some polls (especially "pollsters" like Texas Lyceum) will show a close race, though.

I'm not talking about why it would work (I personally think blue Texas is a mirage without serious infrastructure improvements in the Texas Democratic Party), I'm talking about why O'Rourke is getting attention from media and the "netroots"

[Young Moderate Republican]

Abbott and Cruz, if they win will likely be in a single digit margin. I just hope Beto not only wins, but runs for President in the future if he does. He seems to be the most likely guy to be the next Texan President.

As for Beto's campaign logo I think the Brooklyn Nets might have a word with him, it's too similar to their logo.

That won't happen. Cruz and Abbot are the type of religious right Republicans that do well here. Abbot won by 20 last time around. It'll likely be a 10-15 point margin.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Abbott and Cruz, if they win will likely be in a single digit margin.

There are no signs that Abbott is even remotely in danger of losing reelection. And the only reason the Senate race is getting so much attention is because Democrats hope that this is the third seat they will pick up (after NV and AZ) while holding all of their seats.

I don't think it's as strategic as all that. I think Cruz is well known and deeply hated, #blueTexas has been a meme for long enough, and Beto is a young (for a politician) good looking (for a politician) candidate, and so the educated/politically active portion of the Democratic base that makes small-medium donations is excited about the race, and so drives national Democratic attention.

Cruz isn't hated here though. He's the kind of Reaganite on steroids people vote for here. He beat Trump in the Republican primaries. He'll run ahead of Trump in a pretty significant fashion, much like the other far-right Republicans did down ballot.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Abbott and Cruz, if they win will likely be in a single digit margin.

There are no signs that Abbott is even remotely in danger of losing reelection. And the only reason the Senate race is getting so much attention is because Democrats hope that this is the third seat they will pick up (after NV and AZ) while holding all of their seats.

I don't think it's as strategic as all that. I think Cruz is well known and deeply hated, #blueTexas has been a meme for long enough, and Beto is a young (for a politician) good looking (for a politician) candidate, and so the educated/politically active portion of the Democratic base that makes small-medium donations is excited about the race, and so drives national Democratic attention.

Cruz isn't hated here though. He's the kind of Reaganite on steroids people vote for here. He beat Trump in the Republican primaries. He'll run ahead of Trump in a pretty significant fashion, much like the other far-right Republicans did down ballot.

Again, not talking about O'Rourke's actual prospects. I'm talking about why the race is getting national attention from the liberal grassroots and associated partisan media (HuffPo, Pod Save America, etc)

[Young Conservative]

Abbott and Cruz, if they win will likely be in a single digit margin.

There are no signs that Abbott is even remotely in danger of losing reelection. And the only reason the Senate race is getting so much attention is because Democrats hope that this is the third seat they will pick up (after NV and AZ) while holding all of their seats.

I don't think it's as strategic as all that. I think Cruz is well known and deeply hated, #blueTexas has been a meme for long enough, and Beto is a young (for a politician) good looking (for a politician) candidate, and so the educated/politically active portion of the Democratic base that makes small-medium donations is excited about the race, and so drives national Democratic attention.

Cruz isn't hated here though. He's the kind of Reaganite on steroids people vote for here. He beat Trump in the Republican primaries. He'll run ahead of Trump in a pretty significant fashion, much like the other far-right Republicans did down ballot.

To what extent, if any, will the Cruz sex scandal play in this race? Trump has accused Ted Cruz of having multiple affairs and being the biggest liar he's ever met.

Cruz doesn't have a sex scandal. The National Enquirer is not a news source.

[The Other Castro]

Matthew Dowd is OUT, will not run as an Independent for Cruz's seat.

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https://www.texastribune.org/2017/05/10/dowd-wont-challenge-cruz-2018/

[McGovernForPrez]

Matthew Dowd is OUT, will not run as an Independent for Cruz's seat.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/05/10/dowd-wont-challenge-cruz-2018/

I'm disappointed. Would've been nice to see him steal some of the Republican votes and allow an easier path for Beto.

[Pollster]

I've just completed a GCS poll of this race. Will post the results and analysis when I finish running the data.

[Pollster]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

Despite being a Google Consumer Poll that actually looks like a pretty good snapshot of how things stand right now....

[McGovernForPrez]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

I wish you the best of luck, but I'm skeptical that a 213 person survey is enough of a sample for a state as large as Texas.

[Pollster]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

I wish you the best of luck, but I'm skeptical that a 213 person survey is enough of a sample for a state as large as Texas.

You are correct. At my old firm, we have never done an analysis of Texas statewide with a sample smaller than 700, but I am spending my own money on these surveys to keep myself busy and I'm not looking to make massive investments. The MOE of this poll would be unacceptable in professional circumstances.

[Pollster]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

Despite being a Google Consumer Poll that actually looks like a pretty good snapshot of how things stand right now....

The original GCS data was manually weighted by me to 2016 Texas statewide turnout numbers. The raw data showed a slightly larger lead for Cruz. Respondents were also given the option to select "I am not likely or registered to vote" - all of those respondents were removed from the final sample so hypothetically this sample is of likely voters only.

[Figueira]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

I wish you the best of luck, but I'm skeptical that a 213 person survey is enough of a sample for a state as large as Texas.

Or any state.

[McGovernForPrez]

Here are the toplines and crosstabs:
drive.google.com/file/d/0B5qGI87Yqv4Jc0MxZURDMXNrUEk/view?usp=sharing

I wish you the best of luck, but I'm skeptical that a 213 person survey is enough of a sample for a state as large as Texas.

Or any state.

Yeah, but especially Texas. You could probably get away with it in Vermont, or Wyoming. Texas has some diverse political regions so it's really hard to be certain without a much larger sample.

[Orser67]

Would be interesting if Cornyn gets appointed to lead the FBI and Texas holds two Senate elections in 2018. George P. Bush vs. Joaquin Castro could be the most exciting race of the cycle.

[Shadows]

So, 6% odd lead for Ted Cruz in this poll?

Anyways, 200 is nowhere near a sample size to judge & the campaigns haven't really even begun. If Beto can keep Ted to within 5-6%, then Texas can be competitive in 2024 !

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Would be interesting if Cornyn gets appointed to lead the FBI and Texas holds two Senate elections in 2018. George P. Bush vs. Joaquin Castro could be the most exciting race of the cycle.

Bush would crush him by over 15 points, probably 20.

[BuckeyeNut]

Per his Facebook, O'Rourke favors single-payer.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely R. Now thinking 54-41 for Cruz.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

[Heisenberg]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

The map is so bad for Dems I'd add Tester, Brown, and maaaaybe Baldwin. But, the bottom line is, arguing with a troll is a waste of time.