NV -Trafalgar: Heller (R) +7

[Hollywood]

I'm in contact with Trafalgar right now about the NV poll, and I've reached other pollsters in regards to national approval and state election polls.  I'm attempting to acquire the internal numbers and detailed information to see if they match previous general, as well as swing state polls, throughout the country.   Most notably I've contacted Q about TX and Harris Polling about the Trump poll. 

The information I've acquired from my telephone conversations indicates that Republicans have either a tiny deficit among likely Hispanic voters, or a plurality/out-right majority among this demographic in many swing states across the SE, MW, and SW.  It's been described as a "glaring trend" by one pollster that's happening in GA, TX, FL, and NV.  This same dynamic is happening among college educated men and women, as well as younger voters.  Many lean D and new voters are either leaning more to the right or deciding not to participate.  Interestingly, we've seen three Democrats convert to the GOP in 2021, including the North Las Vegas Mayor and a Georgia State Senator that's running for Governor in 2022.  It's clear that the GOP has made significant progress in Clark County. 

Democrats should be wary about polls in which the Republican is relatively unknown to voters.  The Nevada Senatorial polling data from trafalgar would have been a lot worse if Laxalt had more name recognition.   

Additionally, Trump's unfavorable numbers are not as bad as 2020.  I was told that his base of favourable voters edges out the base of Harris and Biden supporters by 2-4%, demonstrating that enthusiasm and motivation favors Republicans.  The Democrats are no longer winning on any issues.  For example, while it looks like most people support the right for women to choose aborting babies (myself included), most people support restrictions (including women) on many procedural and substantive issues involving the surgical operation and timeframe.  Oddly enough, the Democrat focus on the issue has energized the GOP rather than the Democrat base, because most of left-leaning independents and conservative Democrats care about the economical and Covid-19 issues that effects their day-to-day life.

In sum, the perspective Republicans should hold about the Trafalgar poll is that out of all the respondents that answered (85-88%), Republicans have 52-54% of current likely voters in NV while Democrats are hanging on to 46-48%.  This is indicative of base support at the current moment.  When you take into account Trafalgars bias of 1.3% towards Republicans, and favourably swing those voters R to D so D's gain 2.6%, Laxalt is in a close race and Heller wins with over 51%.  However, given the name recognition issue discussed above, Laxalt probably pulls it out. 

[Hollywood]

I wouldn't be surprised, at this rate, if Heller actually does win by 7 points.

With D national generic ballot support only 2-3 points higher than Republicans according to D pollsters like YouGov and Morning Consult.  Harris has it even, and Wall Street Journal has Rs at +3. 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

There are even a few D pollsters indicating that the left's number one villain, Trump, is tied or leading Biden in a head-to-head match-up.  Trump up 2-4 in both Harris, Suffolk and Emerson would have me completely despondent if I were a Democrat.  Trump's support looks like it might be in the 45-49 as opposed to the 38-42 range even though people still dislike him.  The fault lies with the Democrat Party, but I think they've lost the ability to self-critique themselves while the Republicans are constantly re-examining strategies. 

We knew we were starting to pull Hispanic voters from the Ds in swing states around 2020, but Democrats just had too much enthusiasm so we only saw a 2-4% national improvement for Trump among that demographic.  The GOP started targeting minority areas and running black and brown candidates.  What Biden really needed to hold onto was the white/Hispanic/Asian, college-educated suburbs around the metropolitan areas.  This was the biggest difference between a state like Florida and NC.  Now the GOP is coming back with more Hispanics, Asians, Jews, and mixed race people in addition to recapturing the lost Suburban vote.  Worst thing about the situation is that it was all predictable, and Democrats could have done something to get ahead on issues like supply chains, inflation, immigration, Afghanistan, and Covid-19 restrictions.  However, all their strategies were grounded in retaining the far-left and AA urban vote.  That's not why they won.  Focusing on the base of the party is how Trump won in 2016.  Focusing on Trump's character is how Democrats won by those big numbers in 2020, but that isn't an option when Trump is polling better than Biden.