COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It's ridiculous how far we let some of these braindead 2nd amendment types protest covid restrictions around the state capitals and stuff. Have some crazies show up protesting with Type 56's outside the Punjab Governor's Mansion, and they'll bring out a couple al khalid's and revv the engines and swivel around the 7.62's on top, they won't f#ck around with that sort of malarkey.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

[Meclazine for Israel]

First up, thoughts and prayers to Texasgurl for her loss affected by the Corona-virus. That puts in perspective what we are dealing with here.

Latest numbers from Europe and USA.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 20 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 81,163 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 27,000

I would be calling the peak of the UK Corona-virus pandemic April 19 2020.


France



France 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 55,200

France moves down the graph.


Germany



Germany 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 13,400


Spain



Spain 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 43,900

Spain shares many similarities with Germany, except greater cases. As a result, it will be interesting to see if both countries shared the onset date and the peak date whether they will recede at the same rate and end up getting to 10% of peak active cases on the same date.


Italy



Italy 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 88,000

Just waiting for Italy to update it's recoveries.


USA



USA 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 490,117 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 192,000

USA according to this data has peaked in Active Cases two days ago at 490,000 Active Cases. We should start to see a big decrease from now on.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

This has the best explanation through time:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

[emailking]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

I assume he didn't intend a linear scale.

[It’s so Joever]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

He should have done this back in March.

[Grassroots]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

Bro what? The Black Death was caused by Plague, a disease which is caused by the bacterium Yersinia Pestis. That's nothing like Ebola, which is a virus.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Whatever you think of the larger-scale serological studies, they seem to line up with studies of small populations given an actual covid test.

As one example, New York city has been testing all pregnant women admitted to the hospital for delivery.  They found that 15% of patients tested positive as of April 4, and 90% of those cases were asymptomatic.

This would suggest that NYC is underestimating infections by at least a factor of 10, and possibly significantly more.  To the extent that we see cases declining there, is may simply be because we are approaching herd immunity.  

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

[Koharu]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

He should have done this back in March.

No.

Immigration can be done safely, with new arrivals going through quarantine processes.

This is an awful decision. Trump has realized he can use this crisis to do what he's always wanted to do and people won't fight him on it.

Stopping immigration won't help this crisis. But it "sounds good," so he'll be able to get away with it. Ugh.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Does anyone else suspect we are probably overall improving now, but we'll regress now that restrictions are easing?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Does anyone else suspect we are probably overall improving now, but we'll regress now that restrictions are easing?

At this point, we're going to keep improving.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Seeing those images with thousands of people on the beach in Jacksonville doesn't bring me confidence

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm just worried there won't be enough contact tracing. Contact tracing has been around since 1774 (long before telephones), yet for some reason, some places apparently haven't been doing it.

[Holmes]

Immigrants don’t live on the streets. In fact, many need to prove that they and their sponsor(s) are well above the federal poverty line as a requirement to be approved. It’s not like bunking in their sponsors’ place of residence for a few weeks will expend so much of our resources.

[Koharu]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

He should have done this back in March.

No.

Immigration can be done safely, with new arrivals going through quarantine processes.

This is an awful decision. Trump has realized he can use this crisis to do what he's always wanted to do and people won't fight him on it.

Stopping immigration won't help this crisis. But it "sounds good," so he'll be able to get away with it. Ugh.

On bolded-

1- At a time of limited medical staff and other resources, why expend assets on quarantining prospective immigrants?

2- immigrants tend to flock towards the hotbeds, like NYC. Are you certain that someone can come here from abroad and, from day 1, be able to observe social distancing guidelines and such? Or would immigrants, in their giddiness to be here (which is understandable), feel an irresistible urge to go exploring? Is it even possible for immigrants to just come here and stay home? Won’t they need to go looking for housing, stores, work, etc?

3- even if you find the resources and staff, and you get a strong sense that immigrants will stay home, why take the chance? Why risk it? Why not play it safe?

To call it an “awful decision” is just unfair.

As said above, immigrants usually have to have sponsors who have to have the income to take care of the immigrants for several months.

It would also be immigration staff enforcing the quarantine, not medical staff.

Why would someone from a different country not be able to abide by quarantine protocols for two weeks? The US is the country song the worst at this pandemic.

The reason to "risk it" is because this is something that Trump has wanted to do since he came into office. There's no guarantee he'll return things to normal once this is over. Unlike state lockdowns, there's not a lot of other authorities powerful enough to force the change when things return to normal. In addition, people moving here and then continuing life and abiding by social distancing shouldn't pose any additional risk.

[Grassroots]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

He should have done this back in March.

He should have done this on his first day in office.

[Beet]

He did it on you know who's birthday.

[Hammy]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

He should have done this back in March.

Aside from the fact that we know this is entirely racially motivated, it's going to do absolutely nothing unless ALL travel (including business and tourism) into the US is restricted (especially since his administration isn't doing a whole lot to start with.)

At this point, we're going to keep improving.

I fail to see how removing the only thing that stopped the exponential rise is going to somehow improve anything.

[Holmes]

Immigrants don’t live on the streets. In fact, many need to prove that they and their sponsor(s) are well above the federal poverty line as a requirement to be approved. It’s not like bunking in their sponsors’ place of residence for a few weeks will expend so much of our resources.

Will someone sponsored by an employer live in the office?

And if it’s a family sponsor, then above the poverty line does not = ability to sustain another adult / family.

Lastly, you say “bunking in their sponsors’ place of residence for a few weeks.” NYC, the place that gets the most immigrants, won’t open in a few weeks.

I mean, immigrants that come here on workers visas generally have living accommodations set up anyway when they move here lol. And yes I expect immigrants to live with their sponsors because they’re generally fiancés, spouses, parents or other family members. I know well enough that it’s hard to support people when you’re just above the poverty line because I was once a poor immigrant myself but you might be surprised at how accommodating family members are of their relatives who recently arrived in the country.

[Gass3268]

Immigrants don’t live on the streets. In fact, many need to prove that they and their sponsor(s) are well above the federal poverty line as a requirement to be approved. It’s not like bunking in their sponsors’ place of residence for a few weeks will expend so much of our resources.

Will someone sponsored by an employer live in the office?

And if it’s a family sponsor, then above the poverty line does not = ability to sustain another adult / family.

Lastly, you say “bunking in their sponsors’ place of residence for a few weeks.” NYC, the place that gets the most immigrants, won’t open in a few weeks.

I mean, immigrants that come here on workers visas generally have living accommodations set up anyway when they move here lol. And yes I expect immigrants to live with their sponsors because they’re generally fiancés, spouses, parents or other family members. I know well enough that it’s hard to support people when you’re just above the poverty line because I was once a poor immigrant myself but you might be surprised at how accommodating family members are of their relatives who recently arrived in the country.

I also saw a statistic that like 1/3 of US doctors are immigrants.

[Frodo]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

It is only an executive order -it is highly unlikely that this Congress (or that following the November elections) will compound that decision by approving anything resembling the Emergency Quota Act of 1921.  It will take a while for immigration levels to return to what they were before the Trump administration, but it won't take a century like last time.  

[Grassroots]

April 20
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 8 states (+5)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 11 states (-2)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (-1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (-1)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

-Ohio's case surge is almost entirely due to an outbreak at a prison in Marion county, in which 73% of the inmates at the prison have it.
-Nebraska and Iowa's case surges are due mainly to meatpacking plants.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

When all you have is a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Interesting case study of paramedics in New York treating sick patients.

Warning *** Graphic footage within story ***

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-paramedics-doctor-on-the-frontline-new-york-covid-19/12139676

The sheer scale of the work undertaken by paramedics is to be admired.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

The fact is, immigration is part of the government's coronavirus restrictions. Any country that restricts travel from other countries is, by definition, also restricting immigration from there.

The fact that Trump is releasing this nationalistically-worded tweet and signaling out immigration can only be explained by one thing- he's using the epidemic to advance his white majority worldview. There's a very good chance that if he's reelected he'll attempt to keep this for all non-white countries with some sham explanations and fearmongering despite coronavirus being behind us, because the core goal of his Presidency and the only thing he's been working dilligently on is to keep America as white as possible. As simple as that.