🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 26, 2024, 05:34:49 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Author Topic: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)  (Read 4396 times)
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,386
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: May 23, 2024, 06:15:57 AM »
« edited: May 23, 2024, 05:52:41 PM by Mike88 »

Madeira election, Aximage poll for DN Madeira newspaper:

Vote share %: (compared with 2023)

38.1% PSD (*)
20.6% PS (-0.7)
16.0% JPP (+5.0)
10.8% CHEGA (+1.9)
  3.1% IL (+0.5)
  2.7% CDS (*)
  2.4% BE (+0.2)
  1.6% PAN (-0.6)
  1.5% CDU (-1.2)
  0.8% Livre (+0.2)
  2.4% Others/Invalid (-2.8 )

Poll conducted between 10 and 17 May 2024. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

*PSD and CDS contested the 2023 election in a coalition that gathered 43.1% of the votes.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,386
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: May 23, 2024, 06:41:09 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2024, 05:49:35 PM by Mike88 »

Also this morning, CHEGA's national headquarters was evaquated after a man said he had a bomb. The suspect was arrested:


Quote
Chega headquarters in Lisbon target of bomb threat. Suspect has already been detained

According to the media, a man with a backpack entered this morning in CHEGA's national headquarters in Lisbon saying he had a bomb. The police was called and the man, which according to the media looked incoherent and making a lot of threats, was arrested. Ventura, campaigning in Madeira for Sunday's snap regional election, said that the man told party workers that he had a bomb in his backpack and wanted to murder him. The police has set up a security perimeter around the party's headquarters and is evaluation if there's a real bomb or not.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,386
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: May 23, 2024, 05:32:12 PM »

UCP-CESOP for RTP/Público newspaper:  

Vote share %: (Compared with the March 2024 election)

30% PSD/CDS/PPM (+1)
29% PS (+1)
19% CHEGA (+1)
  5% IL (nc)
  5% Livre (+2)
  4% BE (nc)
  3% CDU (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  3% Others/Invalid (-5)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 20)

11.3 Luís Montenegro
  9.9 Rui Tavares
  9.8 Pedro Nuno Santos
  9.4 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  9.2 Rui Rocha
  8.9 Mariana Mortágua
  8.0 Paulo Raimundo
  8.0 Inês Sousa Real
  7.1 André Ventura

Government approval:

24% Bad/Very bad
15% Good/Very good
51% Average
10% Undecided
  
Q: Will the government last 4 years or end before the end of its term?

64% It will fall before the end of its term
25% It will last 4 years
11% Undecided

Poll conducted bewteen 13 and 18 May 2024. Polled 965 votes. MoE of 3.20%.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,386
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: May 23, 2024, 05:49:24 PM »
« Edited: May 23, 2024, 05:54:29 PM by Mike88 »


Update on this story:

The police didn't find any bomb or explosives in the suspect's backpack, and unlilke it was reported by the media, the suspect wasn't arrested but instead sent to a hospital due to his "anomalous behavior".
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,914


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: May 23, 2024, 09:45:23 PM »

UCP-CESOP for RTP/Público newspaper:  

Vote share %: (Compared with the March 2024 election)

30% PSD/CDS/PPM (+1)
29% PS (+1)
19% CHEGA (+1)
  5% IL (nc)
  5% Livre (+2)
  4% BE (nc)
  3% CDU (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  3% Others/Invalid (-5)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 20)

11.3 Luís Montenegro
  9.9 Rui Tavares
  9.8 Pedro Nuno Santos
  9.4 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  9.2 Rui Rocha
  8.9 Mariana Mortágua
  8.0 Paulo Raimundo
  8.0 Inês Sousa Real
  7.1 André Ventura

Government approval:

24% Bad/Very bad
15% Good/Very good
51% Average
10% Undecided
  
Q: Will the government last 4 years or end before the end of its term?

64% It will fall before the end of its term
25% It will last 4 years
11% Undecided

Poll conducted bewteen 13 and 18 May 2024. Polled 965 votes. MoE of 3.20%.
why is Luís Montenegro the most popular?
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,386
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: May 24, 2024, 06:04:28 AM »
« Edited: May 24, 2024, 06:14:31 AM by Mike88 »

why is Luís Montenegro the most popular?

It depends on the polling company. For example, today's Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers:

Vote share %: (after 6.3% of undecideds are excluded)

24.7% PS (-4.0)
23.7% PSD/CDS/PPM (-0.6)
17.4% CHEGA (+1.8 )
  9.4% Livre (+3.7)
  9.0% IL (+1.1)
  8.2% BE (-1.5)
  3.2% PAN (+0.3)
  2.5% CDU (+0.2)
  1.9% Others/Invalid (-1.0)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 5)

3.2 Rui Tavares (+0.2)

3.0 Luís Montenegro (+0.1)
3.0 Rui Rocha (+0.1)
2.9 Pedro Nuno Santos (+0.1)
2.8 Mariana Mortágua (+0.1)
2.8 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.6 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.4)
2.5 Nuno Melo (nc)
2.4 Paulo Raimundo (nc)
2.4 André Ventura (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 12 and 20 May 2024. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

As you can see, it depends on the polling method, but Montenegro is still one of the most popular party leaders, alongside Livre's Rui Tavares, and closely followed by IL's Rui Rocha and PS' Pedro Nuno Santos. He's still a new PM and maybe people still give him the "benefit of the doubt". What both polls match is in the big fall in popularity of President Marcelo, which was already expected.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,386
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: May 24, 2024, 02:29:52 PM »

Former PM António Costa heard by the Public Prosecutor this Friday afternoon:


Quote
The former prime minister was heard at his request by the DCIAP, six months after the Attorney General's Office announced that he was a suspect in Operation Influencer and, consequently, resigned.

At Costa's request, the Lisbon Public Prosecutor office, DCIAP, heard the arguments of the former PM this afternoon. He wasn't heard as a formal suspect, nor declared as one, and according to his attorneys, Costa clarified every single doubts asked by the Prosecutor. Nearly two months ago, as he was leaving the swearing in ceremony of PM Montenegro, Costa told reporters that he had instructed his attorneys to request a hearing to the Public Prosecutor at the earliest date.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,386
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: May 24, 2024, 04:51:34 PM »

Campaign ends in Madeira:

Parties ended their campaign events during the last few hours. The main issue in the last few days has been the governability of the islands after the elections. Every party is "shutting" their doors on the PSD because of Miguel Albuquerque, with Albuquerque saying that one thing is what parties say before an election, another thing is what happens after an election. On the left, the only poll of the campaign seems to show a close race for second place between PS and JPP, but take polls with EXTREME caution. The PS is hopeful in ending the near 50-year rule of the PSD in Madeira, and says that people on the street want change. But, what if JPP surpasses the PS? Further on the right, CHEGA is going back and forward on what to do after election day, "support the PSD or not, that's the question". Ventura says "no" because of Montenegro's "no is no" regarding CHEGA in the mainland, but, what happens in Madeira, stays in Madeira? We'll know on Sunday.

The last campaign events of the main parties:

PSD - Social Democratic Party

Quote
After our great Walkabout, what we did together was simply apotheotic, in another memorable Rally of our Party!
This is the strength that Madeira needs to move forward, towards a better future!
Thank you to all Madeirans and Porto-Santenses!
Thank you to all our Militants, who, once again, set an example!
Let's continue together, towards another victory on May 26th!
A victory for Madeira and our future!
We count on everyone!

PS - Socialist Party

Quote
Watch the closing rally of the PS-Madeira candidacy campaign for the Regional Legislative Elections.
Let's Turn the Page in Madeira!

JPP - Together for the People

Quote
THIS IS THE MOMENT || We are on the verge of conquering the islands of Madeira and Porto Santo
May 26th, let's go together, forward and without fear!

CH - CHEGA

Quote
It is on the streets that the true essence of a people is revealed. On the island of Madeira, there are more and more people who believe in change.
Next Sunday, Madeirans, no one stays at home: it's to vote, it's to win! #CHEGA

CDS - CDS-People's Party

Quote
Campaign action in the center of Funchal
#responsibilityandrenovation #IBelieve #cdsppp #asafevote #regionais2024 #26May

CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition (PCP/PEV)

Quote
In this electoral campaign initiative in which several candidates participated, the Regional Representative, Sílvia Vasconcelos, also took the floor, who saluted each of the supporters of this candidacy, highlighting the fact that it is made up of «serious people fully dedicated to the defense public interest”.

IL - Liberal Initiative

Quote
WALKABOUT REGIONALS 2024
On May 26th, help MAKE A DIFFERENCE!
On May 26th, vote for the LIBERAL INITIATIVE

PAN - People-Animals-Nature

Quote
On our penultimate day of the campaign, we took our measures and proposals to the streets of Funchal! We never tire of repeating how important it is to know who you are voting for and why they should vote for us
Only 2 days left to make the big decision. And we want to remind you of the importance of everyone going to vote!
May 26th! VOTE FOR THE FORCE OF NATURE VOTE PAN

BE - Left Bloc

Quote
Thus ended the Bloc's campaign for next Sunday's regional elections. A campaign of joy carried out by young and less young people. On Sunday, the strength of the Bloc vote will be a catalyst for political change in the region. With more Deputies from the Bloc, we will force the construction of a governance alternative that solves the problems of Madeirans and Portosanto residents. Next Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda votes, the second on the ballot.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,386
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: May 25, 2024, 07:33:54 AM »
« Edited: May 25, 2024, 07:59:24 AM by Mike88 »

As a fellow Southern European, all I can say is that Ventura claiming Turks are not known for being the most hard-working people in the world is a bit of a pot calling the kettle black moment.

This case has actually made me change my vote for the European elections. I was deciding to vote IL, because I like Cotrim Figueiredo and Montenegro's performance has been quite disappointing, but after last week, I've decided to vote tactically in AD, as, IMO, the PS doesn't deserve to win this. This controversy was so forced by the PS and the left, and made, once again, Ventura play the "victim card", which was exactly what he always pretended to do. Plus, the PS' strategy that the "AD is in an European family that is giving signs of wanting to work with the far-right", clashes with the several PS bills shored up by CHEGA in Parliament, and I cannot stand this level of cynicism.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.231 seconds with 10 queries.