Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,488
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« on: July 15, 2014, 06:23:20 AM » |
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« edited: July 15, 2014, 06:27:58 AM by Bull Moose Base »
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I said a year ago that Hillary was the best positioned non-incumbent 3 years out ever. But people are confusing causality. The Democrats aren't heavily favored because Hillary will be a dominating nominee. Hillary will be a dominating nominee because the Democrats are heavily favored and she's basically a lock to be the nominee. Obama's current approvals aren't low enough to be a real factor. He's still like 15 points higher than W was. His approvals are also higher than the GOP. As John McCain says, it doesn't matter who the GOP nominates in 2016. They'll lose. This would be as true against Warren as against Hillary.
Speaking of McCain, Hillary isn't really analagous to his position 8 years ago. To become the nominee he would need to sacrifice what made him appealing. Also, the Iraq War which McCain championed more than anyone was growing increasingly unpopular.
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