Mister Mets
YaBB God
Posts: 4,440
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« on: August 09, 2017, 10:49:42 PM » |
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« edited: August 10, 2017, 06:19:43 AM by Mister Mets »
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I'll define stars as Presidents, Vice Presidents, national candidates, prominent legislators, prominent members of presidential administrators and executives with national reputations, limiting it to 5 to 6 per party per decade.
We can loook backwards to see what 2010s stars were doing a decade earlier.
In 2007, Trump was becoming more apolitical after some claims he'll run for President, Romney was a one-term Governor, Pence and Ryan were rising members of Congress, Nikki Haley was a
young state legislator, and Chris Christie (a star for a few years) was a US Attorney. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton was a prominent Senator/ former presidential relative, Bernie Sanders was a House backbencher recruited by Democrats to run as an Independent who agrees to caucus with them, Elizabeth Warren was a professor appointed to a congressional oversight panel, and Cory Booker was a Newark councilman who won the mayorality in his second go-around.
We could also check it out with the 2000s stars.
Looking at 2000s stars in 1997, George W Bush was a big-state Governor related to a former President, Dick Cheney was a retired Cabinet member/ CEO, John McCain was a war hero Senator considered a potential running mate for Dole, Condoleeza Rice was an academic with ties to Chevron, Rudy Giuliani was a prominent mayor, and Bill Frist was a prominent doctor who got elected to the Senate. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton was a first lady, Barack Obama was a law professor who just got elected to the state legislature, Nancy Pelosi was a congresswoman with a reputation as a good fundraiser, John Edwards was a prominent lawyer, John Kerry was a war hero Senator, and Joe Biden was a prominent Senator.
If history is any precedent, it's quite likely that some of the major stars of the 2020s are currently academics and/ or state legislators, and it's pretty much nigh-impossible to pick which one will rise. The 2028 election is unlikely to consist entirely of people who currently hold statewide office.
It's foolhardy to look at current officeholders and pick which of them will succeed since politics is a fickle business. At one point, Tom Daschle, Russ Feingold, Scott Brown and George Allen looked like potential stars, and then they lost their Senate reelection efforts. Evan Bayh and Tim Pawlenty came close to being on national tickets several times.
That said, there are some people who are more likely than others to succeed.
On the Democratic side, new Senators and Governors would have an outsized chance of a significant influence in the coming decade. Kamala Harris is getting the most attention, and has the advantage of the California media market as well as a background appropriate perfect for a time when criminal justice reform is on liberal's minds. Gavin Newsom is likely to be elected Governor of California, offering an alternative model of liberal leadership.
On the Republican side, future political stars are probably going to emerge in opposition to the next Democratic President. Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse are well-positioned to get reelected in tough cycles for the party, and have been getting outsized attention.
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