WA SEN (Trafalgar): Murray +3

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1565792328673107968

[Minnesota Mike]

LOL Trafalgar.

[Minnesota Mike]

If your reaction to this poll is "OMG Washington's close!" instead of calling into question other Trafalgar polls you are doing it wrong.

[Minnesota Mike]

As has been said above in the recent primary Dems outpolled Republicans 57-43 in the two party vote. I figure the general election will have about 3.5 million voters (would be the same percentage increase in total vote as between the 2018 primary and general), that would mean Smiley would have to win the "new"/3rd party primary vote by around 10% assuming primary voters vote for the same party in the general. Not happening.

[Minnesota Mike]

Murray is highly unlikely to lose, but this race being too close to call for a few hours on election night would be a key indicator of the fabled GOP Wave.

We will know far before polls close on the west coast if there was any sort of wave.