WA SEN (Trafalgar): Murray +3

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1565792328673107968

[Minnesota Mike]

LOL Trafalgar.

[Holmes]

ha

[Xing]

Trafalgar may end up being right about some races this cycle. This poll, however, will definitely be one of their biggest stinkers.

[Devils30]

Well if you were scared about the Georgia poll here you go.

[Senator Incitatus]

I strongly doubt the final margin even comes close this, let alone this being a current portrait of the early race—but presumably the DSCC will start burning money here, since that's the line whenever an absurd poll comes out against a Republican.

[Real Texan Politics]

This could be a shockingly close race, but I’m not gonna go out on a limb and say this is a tossup or Smiley’s gonna win or anything like that. If I had to guess I’d say Murray ends up winning by high single digits.

[Minnesota Mike]

If your reaction to this poll is "OMG Washington's close!" instead of calling into question other Trafalgar polls you are doing it wrong.

[President Johnson]

About as believeable as the Young +3 poll the other day.

Trafalgar may be right in some Midwestern states or even Arizona, but this is utter junk.

[Ferguson97]

Yet they also had Barnes up by 3 just a few days ago… yeah, sure.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Well considering Murray already took 52% of the vote in the blanket primary, along with other Democrats taking about 3% of the vote combined, I'm gonna say this is probably a load of bulls***.

I still trust Trafalgar more than other pollsters in the Midwest, but the case against them outside of that region seems to be growing stronger.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I don't see any reason why Washington wouldn't be safe D.

I've caught a little bit of "Washington is moving right" national and local narrative at play because of the Seattle city election results last year but that was more of a rejection of extremist candidates than any sort of rightward drift.  Similar to the Chesa Boudin recall... it doesn't mean we're all going to vote Republicans into the Senate now just because we decided not to legalize all crime.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

ROTFL

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Has Trafalgar ever published a poll (of anywhere) that didn't show a close race?

[prag_prog]

So according to Trafalgar, Dem Senate candidates have roughly 2-4 point lead in Arizona, PA, Washington, Wisconsin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't see any reason why Washington wouldn't be safe D.

I've caught a little bit of "Washington is moving right" national and local narrative at play because of the Seattle city election results last year but that was more of a rejection of extremist candidates than any sort of rightward drift.  Similar to the Chesa Boudin recall... it doesn't mean we're all going to vote Republicans into the Senate now just because we decided not to legalize all crime.

Washington last elected a Republican to the US Senate in...*checks notes*...1994.
In an election cycle where the GOP won 7 of 9 House seats from the state.
Somehow I doubt that will happen today.

[GALeftist]

Embarrassing poll, and to my delight shows that they haven't suddenly dropped their pro-R bias. Wisconsin could be on the menu after all.

I believe this poll wholeheartedly. Rick Scott, please prioritize Washington and other states like Connecticut and Vermont where Democrats could easily get caught sleeping.

[Spectator]

#WAcloserthanPAandAZ

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They have Fetterman and Kelly up 4 in purple states Arizona and Pennsylvania but Murray up only 3 in Washington, a state Biden won by nearly 20 points? Throw it in the garbage pile and move on.

[Devils30]

We had a poll of nearly 2 million in August and it's not close here.

[kwabbit]

The jungle primary was Dems +14, so I’d be very surprised if the result differed in more than a few points in either direction.

[seskoog]

Look, it's the blue state equivalent of the IN-SEN poll from 2 days ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Early voting is starting soon we're gonna win our 303 states the question is the H and can Ds get above 52 Sen seats so the Rs can't win back the Sen in 24 with OH, WVA and MT

OH, FL and NC and the H are at stake..

53 Sen seats and DH in either 22/24 solidifies DC Statehood and it's very likely Gwen Graham is gonna run against Rick Scott in 24 he's the most endangered R

[Duke of York]

Trafalgar has a decent record in the midwest but there is no way this election winds up this close.

[windjammer]

So Murray is going to overperform in the rural areas but lise Seattle.

Makes sense!