2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats’ main goal should be moving WA-08 into safer territory, even if it means putting WA-03 completely out of reach.  That should be the bare minimum that Dems on the commission should accept.  Otherwise, deadlock the commission and punt it to the all Dem Supreme Court.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

Are you lowering expectations for 2022 pre-emptively just to ensure there is a 0% chance you're going to be disappointed?

I’m being realistic.  I’m expecting about an R+7 national popular vote which means that Dems probably lose most districts where Biden got less than 55%.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

Are you lowering expectations for 2022 pre-emptively just to ensure there is a 0% chance you're going to be disappointed?

I’m being realistic.  I’m expecting about an R+7 national popular vote which means that Dems probably lose most districts where Biden got less than 55%.

Your way too confident in that. R + 7 is a reasonable overall projection, but there’s also a chance it could be R + 10 or R + 4. If it’s on the better end of the potential outcome, an incumbent in a Biden + 8ish seat def has a chance

I think the new WA-08 is like Biden + 5. 

[Mr.Phips]

So what happens now? Does the buck pass to the legislature, or the Supreme Court? Or does the commission just keep trying until we get to the new election cycle?

The commission shall complete redistricting as soon as possible following the federal decennial census, but no later than November 15th of each year ending in one. At least three of the voting members shall approve such a redistricting plan. If three of the voting members of the commission fail to approve a plan within the time limitations provided in this subsection, the supreme court shall adopt a plan by April 30th of the year ending in two in conformance with the standards set forth in subsection (5) of this section.

Given that it's all Dem appointees across the state courts, perhaps expect them to either pick one of the the original two D plans or bring in a expert to do a full remap, which would be the only way we would get a south cascades split for those that desire such an action.

Dems shouldn’t agree on any map that doesn’t make WA-08 at least Biden + 10.  Punt it to the state Supreme Court if they can’t get this.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1466540915619766275?s=21

I’m assuming they will just let the map that was agreed upon stand.  I have no idea why the Dems on the commission agreed to a map that didn’t make WA-08 basically safe for Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like Dems are giving up another seat in 2022 (WA-08).  Morons.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

Biden + 17 and 18.  Even in 2018, Dems didn’t pick up any districts that Trump carried by a margin that large.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

Biden + 17 and 18.  Even in 2018, Dems didn’t pick up any districts that Trump carried by a margin that large.

Weill they got up to Trump+15 in NY-22. They fell just short.

Neither of these districts are as elastic as NY-22 and the incumbents are no where near as polarizing as Claudia Tenney.  A Tom Reed type would have had no trouble in NY-22.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

Biden + 17 and 18.  Even in 2018, Dems didn’t pick up any districts that Trump carried by a margin that large.

Weill they got up to Trump+15 in NY-22. They fell just short.

Neither of these districts are as elastic as NY-22 and the incumbents are no where near as polarizing as Claudia Tenney.  A Tom Reed type would have had no trouble in NY-22.

What about OK-05 or NY-11?

NY-11 was only Trump + 10 while OK-05 was Trump + 13, but trending Dem, and the Dem candidate for governor won it by double digits.