Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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https://mobile.twitter.com/SHGM/status/1459079392689373205

The Turkish aviation authority has announced a ban on Syrians, Iraqis and Yemenis from travelling to Belarus. Already Iraq banned flights (besides repatriation) and this week closed the Belarusian consulate in Erbil and other Belarusian offices in Baghdad to stop them from Issuing Visas. Lebanon, Jordan und Tajikistan have also stopped flights to Belarus.

Not just Border sealed but also the main future migrant flows into Belarus cut off. And shows that if the EU and it's MS are united, we can actually apply real pressure. Problem countries is Syria and Iran, where applying pressure doesn't work if the relationship is non-existent/ed and no economic leverage is there thanks to US stupidity with nuclear deal.

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https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509

Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

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After (presumably) getting a mouthful in conversations today with EU foreign rep Borrell, UK FM and France foreign advisor, Chinese FM Wang Yi clarifies position:

China's basic position on the Ukraine issue, which can be summarized in the following five points:

1. China firmly advocates the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine
2. Russia has legitimate security demands after five consecutive rounds of NATO's eastward expansion
3. imperative that all parties exercise restraint to prevent the situation in Ukraine from worsening
4. China welcomes direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible.
5. The Chinese side believes that the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in solving the Ukraine issue

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202202/t20220226_10645790.shtml

Looking at the government narratives in recent days it has been very Anti-American, but also quite explicitly not anti-European. Assume they are sweating about the impact this could have China-Europe relations. At the end China has quite good relations, even and especially with countries like Poland (Duda visit Beijing for Olympics). Supporting Russia is largely emotional, sure, it is understandable, but Russia is like 2% of world GDP, leaning in too far could be very bad for China.

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https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509

Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

German FM doubles down on opposition to SWIFT exclusion In Interview tonight:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-993977.html

- "The sharpest sword isn't always the smartest"
- too much Collateral Damage, would hit civil society too much, and for instance ordinary Russians in Germany who need to send payments to relatives
- "as the government we also have a responsibility to ensure that the Germans can heat and have electricity"

It can change, but considering she is so adamant (unlike her always sceptical attitude to NS2, which shone through even when she was forced to defend it), I really can't see it happening right now.

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https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

German FM doubles down on opposition to SWIFT exclusion In Interview tonight:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-993977.html

- "The sharpest sword isn't always the smartest"
- too much Collateral Damage, would hit civil society too much, and for instance ordinary Russians in Germany who need to send payments to relatives
- "as the government we also have a responsibility to ensure that the Germans can heat and have electricity"

It can change, but considering she is so adamant (unlike her always sceptical attitude to NS2, which shone through even when she was forced to defend it), I really can't see it happening right now.

What’s German for ‘America First’?

Deutschland über alles

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https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1497533422146887684

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki:

Today I spoke again with the Prime Minister of Hungary, V. Orbán. And he once again assured me of his support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia. Including about blocking the SWIFT system.

with Cyprus also supporting, Germany looking increasingly isolated now.

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https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/swift-deutschland-will-internationales-zahlungssystem-gezielt-einschraenken-a-457cbb5a-95b7-40fd-bf2d-9d91d9f27c4c

Germany supports a "targeted and functional" restriction of the Swift international payment system for Russia. Work is being done "at high pressure" on how Russia's decoupling from Swift can be limited in such a way that "it hits the right people"

Whatever that means?

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https://mobile.twitter.com/BMDV_bund/status/1497680915060989953

Germany is implementing closing airspace to Russia, ahead of imminent EU decision. As with the Eastern European Countries+UK which implement it already, it will almost certainly lead to a reciprocal response from Russia.

It is absolutely massive for global travel. This means that flights to Asia are going to get longer and more expensive. It also will be a massive boost for Istanbul/Turkish Airlines and Qatar/Emirates, because the Transit traffic will go that way. But most importantly, even during the cold war there was direct flight traffic between the western bloc and the east. It ends tomorrow.

(It could be that they get around this by permitting non-russian, non-european carriers to serve the route directly, but usually this is not allowed)

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It's happening:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_1423

European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States joint statement:

The following measures will be brought forward:
1) Disconnection of certain Russian banks from SWIFT
2) Russia central bank assets paralized
3) Russian oligarchs assets frozen on EU market

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It's happening:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_1423

European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States joint statement:

The following measures will be brought forward:
1) Disconnection of certain Russian banks from SWIFT
2) Russia central bank assets paralized
3) Russian oligarchs assets frozen on EU market

Ugh, certain Russian banks is incredibly half assed and just gives them time to switch to the crappy Chinese knock off.

Means Germany got what it wanted. Better than nothing, though.

Germany supports a "targeted and functional" restriction of the Swift international payment system for Russia. Work is being done "at high pressure" on how Russia's decoupling from Swift can be limited in such a way that "it hits the right people"

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China's MFA backs Russia's allegations of US Biological weapons in Ukraine:
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/202203/t20220309_10649938.html

Shenzhen TV: Recently, US biological labs in Ukraine have drawn much attention. The US Embassy in Ukraine has reportedly removed information related to such labs in haste. Do you have any comment?

Zhao Lijian: Lately US biological labs in Ukraine have indeed attracted much attention. According to reports, a large quantity of dangerous viruses are stored in these facilities. Russia has found during its military operations that the US uses these facilities to conduct bio-military plans.

According to data released by the US, it has 26 labs and other related facilities in Ukraine, over which the US Department of Defense has absolute control. All dangerous pathogens in Ukraine must be stored in these labs and all research activities are led by the US side. Without US approval, no information shall be released to the public.

Under current circumstances, for the sake of the health and safety of people in Ukraine, neighboring regions and beyond, we call on relevant sides to ensure the safety of these labs. The US, in particular, as the party that knows the labs the best, should disclose specific information as soon as possible, including which viruses are stored and what research has been conducted.

I would also like to stress that, the biological military activities of the US in Ukraine are merely the tip of the iceberg. Using such pretexts as cooperating to reduce biological safety risks and strengthening global public health, the US has 336 biological labs in 30 countries under its control. 336, you heard me right. It also conducted many biological military activities in the Fort Detrick base at home.

What is the true intention of the US? What has it done specifically? The international community has long-held doubts. However, the US has kept stonewalling, even dismissing the international community’s doubts as spreading disinformation. Besides, the US has been standing alone in obstructing the establishment of a Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) verification mechanism and refusing verification of its biological facilities at home and abroad for the past two decades. This has led to deeper concern of the international community. Once again we urge the US to give a full account of its biological military activities at home and abroad and subject itself to multilateral verification.

Very amusing considering Borrell's comments that only China not only can, but must be the mediator between Russia and Ukraine "So it has to be China. There is no alternative".

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https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-13/putin-s-war-on-ukraine-will-destroy-russia-too-l0p8651t

This Article makes for quite a read. Comes as Russian central bank extends trading shutdown on the Moscow Exchange for another week. On track to becoming a months long shutdown.



Overall it's pretty mindblowing the kind of measures that Russia has had to take against the sanctions. According to just what I can keep track of, Russia has:

- more than doubled its key interest rate to 20%
- imposed capital controls
- banned exports of more than 200 products to 48 countries. Including telecoms, medical, vehicle, agricultural, and electrical equipment.
- plans seizure of assets owned by western companies that want to leave
- effectively stolen foreign leased planes
- legalized patent theft from "unfriendly countries"
- effectively defaulted, by conditioning payments to foreign creditors on sanctions lifting

The effect this will have on basically any foreign investment (incl. Chinese!) in the future is obvious.

And this against Sanctions which, at least in terms of financial sanctions, have not even remotely reached the outer rim of what would be possible. With SWIFT the exclusions so far are quite mild (7 Russian banks and 3 Belarusian are delisted, but not all and not the key ones: Sberbank or Gazprombank). Unlike Iran sanctions, west has completely held off from secondary sanctions. So far the sanctions have been limited to sanctioning specific entities, but no international sanctions against entities that transact with these sanctioned entities. Of course full delisting from SWIFT and secondary sanctions would make EU paying for Russian energy in the short term much more difficult. But that is temporary, and Russia is playing a very risky game against time at this point.

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Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang in WaPo Opinion piece:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/15/china-ambassador-us-where-we-stand-in-ukraine/

There have been claims that China had prior knowledge of Russia’s military action and demanded Russia delay it until the Winter Olympics concluded. Recent rumors further claimed that Russia was seeking military assistance from China. Let me say this responsibly: Assertions that China knew about, acquiesced to or tacitly supported this war are purely disinformation. (Note: the word "War", not "military operation"/"Ukraine issue"/"Ukraine crisis" as used in many other/pervious statements)

On Ukraine, China’s position is objective and impartial: The purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter must be fully observed; the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, must be respected; the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously; and all efforts that are conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported.

Given this, threats against Chinese entities and businesses, as uttered by some U.S. officials, are unacceptable. (note: referring to possible secondary sanctions against Chinese businesses) Neither war nor sanctions can deliver peace. Wielding the baton of sanctions at Chinese companies while seeking China’s support and cooperation simply won’t work.

Some people are linking Taiwan and Ukraine to play up the risks of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. This is a mistake. These are totally different things. Ukraine is a sovereign state, while Taiwan is an inseparable part of China’s territory.

Increasing and clear distancing from Russia by China. On another note, like, Qin Gang is excellent. Especially on the difference between Taiwan and Ukraine. He both lays out the common sense and decent view while also embedding the veiled allusion to the American double standard and sinophobia: As stated clearly multiple times by President Biden, US will defend a territory (Taiwan) by military force, which it itself (and the World, and Taiwan's constitution) recognizes as Chinese. Yet it steadfastly and explicitly refuses to intervene when an actual internationally recognized sovereign state is subject to a war of aggression by a larger neighbor.

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Interestingly, something that Scholz said today managed to anger both Russia and Ukraine and make them agree (but not in a positive way). Scholz said "This war is Putin's war".

In response Zelensky's Chief Foreign Policy Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak criticized Chancellor Olaf Scholz for "defending the Russian people". According to him Scholz just wanted to justify his indecisiveness. "A distinction is spreading in Europe between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian people. But that is wrong: according to surveys, a majority of the Russian population supports the war and the killing of Ukrainians." Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also criticized Scholz's remarks, stating that also the Russian people bear responsibility for the war. While in Russia, Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov also criticized Scholz's remarks for trying to divide the President from the Russian people.
 
It seems that the one thing both sides agree, if for different reasons, on is that this war is not a war between the governments, but a total war by the Russian nation against Ukrainian nation. Whilst the people who disagree with this are westerners, either because they are naive and don't want to believe it, or because they are looking for a politically correct excuse not to "punish the Russian people" with the harshest possible sanction for the irredentist and genocidal views that the vast majority, yes, not all, but most of them share.

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Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Qin Gang on "Face the Nation"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/qin-gang-chinese-ambassador-face-the-nation-03-20-2022/

AMB. GANG: Well, There's a disinformation about China providing military assistance to Russia. We reject that--

MARGARET BRENNAN: --You won't do so, Beijing will not?

AMB. GANG: What China is doing is send foods, medicine, sleeping bags and the baby formula--

MARGARET BRENNAN: --That's--

AMB. GANG: --not weapons and ammunition to any party and we are against a war, as I said, you know, we will do everything to dis-escalate the crisis.

China refuses military aid to Russia. Maybe people on this thread should stop framing this conflict on civilizational lines. And I would say, that when even Philippines foreign minister (who voted in favour of UNGA Res ES-11/1!) is saying that "The West is fighting to the last Ukrainian man, woman and child.", I suggest West has a severe problem with messaging. Because, like it or not, they do represent the majority or the global population.

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/20/saudi-aramco-to-increase-oil-production-to-meet-global-demand

Saudi Aramco to increase oil production to meet global demand

Aramco expects demand for oil to keep climbing, and said “substantial new investment” is required to meet this demand, in a move likely to dismay climate campaigners.

It said it is increasing its capital expenditure for 2022 by about half to between $40 and $50bn, with further growth expected until the middle of the decade. The state-owned oil firm’s capital expenditure came in just below $32bn in 2021, an 18% increase on 2020.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been asked in recent days by western governments to pump more oil to end their reliance on supplies from Russia.

The Gulf countries are the only two leading oil producers that have immediate spare capacity able to offset the shortfall in Russian-produced energy

After Germany agrees LNG deal with Qatar, Saudi Aramco agrees to boost production after Boris and Macron meeting with MBS and Poland, Czech and Lithuania sell rights to Saudi Aramco allowing them supply to Orlen refineries to replace Rosneft. US should be grateful for Europe, which didn't buy into to Democratic party anti-Gulf virtue signaling. Saudi and Emirati leaders refusing Biden phone call despite him begging, but Europe saves his ass in the midterms now.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1507776547780018177

This is pretty massive. In a Speech in Poland Biden for first time openly articulates the new policy of the US: Regime Change in Russia. Never before has US openly called for regime change in a P5 Nuclear state. Even during the height of the Cold War in the early 80s when Reagan said SU was an "Evil Empire", US did not call openly for regime change. Even the most radicals in the Trump Admin like Pompeo who went in that direction (Nixon Library speech 2020) for China, stopped short of explicitly saying it. Putin is now in terms of US policy what Saddam Hussein was post 1991.

What does this mean concretely?
-No chance of Sanctions being lifted until Putin is toppled, even if Hostilities cease, even if status ante quo bellum is restored
-Russia Liberation Act (pendant to Iraq Liberation Act of 1998)? US support for military coup in Russia, like in Iraq in 90s?
-However the major risk is that like with Saddam Hussein in the 90s, while it is successful long term in degrading Russia's economic and much of it's military potential into ruin, it is not effective and in fact counterproductive in achieving regime change.

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https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1659850/holocaust-memorial-in-lithuania-defaced-with-symbols-of-russia-s-war-in-ukraine

Holocaust memorial in Vilnius desecrated with Z symbols and other support for Russian Aggressor. How is this possible? I thought that it was the evil anti-Russian Baltic nationalists that were supposed to be the Nazis?!

Time to unleash the full force of the state against Z and those using it.

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Viktor Orban, having won a landslide victory, says that Zelensky was an "opponent" he defeated in his campaign. He now has a huge mandate of the Hungarian people behind him. How long can the EU "united front" last? Don't they need unanimous consent to do anything?

Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, has declared victory in the country's parliamentary elections, clinching a fourth consecutive term in power.

Orban's Fidesz party had a commanding lead with 71% of the votes counted, Hungary's national elections board said on Sunday evening.

The election campaign was dominated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which put Orban's lengthy association with Russian President Vladimir Putin under scrutiny. In his victory speech, Orban called Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky one of the "opponents" he had to overcome during the campaign.

Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian energy and Orban has dodged opportunities to condemn Putin's assault on its neighboring state, complicating the EU's efforts to present a united front against him.

They don't need a unanimous mandate to do everything, Orban has been re-elected in an increasingly authoritarian regime, and internationally, he has been successfully pressured into not vetoing EU-wide measures before even where he has that power. He talks a big game about vetoing a gas ban, but there he has had the support of states like Germany - when and if they move, it's an open question as to whether he wouldn't get pushed.

If you actually followed developments in the EU on this, you'd know the front has become more united (however weak its overall stance), with the rest of the Visegrad Group finally distancing itself from Hungary after long-running tensions between the entire group and the rest of the EU.

In practice, most EU decisions are in fact unanimous but that's more the result of a "political culture" where you don't vote "no" if there's no actual chance of defeating the proposal in the first place. In other words, Orban could have voted against all the sanctions of the recent past, but it wouldn't have changed the end result, except that it would have made him look stupid had his country been the sole dissenting voice.

No, Sanctions do indeed have to be unanimous. EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) is one area which doesn't have QMV (sadly). Theoretically Hungary could veto, and the sanctions would be defeated. The reason they don't is because, EU member states are very reluctant to use the Veto unilaterally, because you will then very quickly be at the receiving end of that Veto, which could become very painful for Hungary in particular when it comes to funding.

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Further reports appearing to confirm presence of NATO special forces on ground in Ukraine.

SAS troops ‘are training local forces in Ukraine’

SAS troops have trained local forces in Kyiv for the first time since the war with Russia began, Ukrainian commanders have told The Times.

Officers from two battalions stationed in and around the capital said they had undergone military training from serving British special forces, one last week and the other the week before.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sas-troops-are-training-local-forces-in-ukraine-32vs5bjzb

Already previously French intelligence sources told French newspaper Le Figaro about the presence of US and British special forces. (Yes, I am aware fars news is Iranian propaganda, but it is english language, the report itself is correct)

Report: US, UK Conducting 'Secret War' in Ukraine

TEHRAN (FNA)- Elite special forces from the UK and the US have been present in Ukraine since the beginning of hostilities with Russia in late February, a source in the French intelligence community reportedly told Le Figaro.

The claim was reported by the newspaper’s senior international correspondent Georges Malbrunot on Saturday, the day when British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made his surprise visit to Kiev. The British leader was reportedly surrounded by guards from the elite SAS force, though this claim was not officially confirmed.

SAS units “have been present in Ukraine since the beginning of the war, as did [sic] the American Deltas”, Malbrunot tweeted citing a French intelligence source. He added that according to the source Russia was well aware of the “secret war” waged against its troops by foreign commandos.

https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14010122000697/Repr-US-UK-Cndcing-'Secre-War'-in-Ukraine

Le figaro correspondent Georges Malbrunot:
https://www.twitter.com/Malbrunot/status/1512814126367662088

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https://twitter.com/MSnegovaya/status/1516785963644633096
https://www.rbc.ru/finances/20/04/2022/625ffd519a7947196d66f36c

Russian sanctioned banks will not be able to issue UnionPay cards

UnionPay is afraid to cooperate with a number of large Russian banks because of the risk of secondary sanctions, RBC learned. Sanctioned banks that issued such cards or planned to do so are forced to abandon projects. [...] An interlocutor close to Sberbank said that the bank’s employees were told about such a decision by the Chinese payment system at a closed meeting, so Sberbank will not issue these cards.

The possibility of issuing a UnionPay card was also considered or already worked on this by Alfa-Bank, Otkritie, VTB . Promsvyazbank, which issued UnionPay cards even before falling under the sanctions, stopped doing this, the call center of the credit institution said. Three RBC sources in banks claim that these credit institutions will not be able to issue UnionPay cards due to fears of the payment system [UnionPay] itself. Two more sources explain that UnionPay put the negotiations on pause without explanation. “The project is temporarily on pause, they do not officially confirm the connection with the sanctions, they say that it is on pause until further notice,” one of them said.

UnionPay is the Chinese equivalent of Visa/Mastercard. Visa/Mastercard have shut down international operations in Russia after the sanctions (the effect, as far as I have heard is that Russian cards still work for the time being inside Russia, but not internationally and international cards don't work in Russia). The Russian plan/cope for the last few weeks was that UnionPay would be connected Russia’s internal Mir card services network and simply replace Visa/Mastercard.

However the sanctions have made UnionPay get cold feet. The US doesn't actually have secondary sanctions against Chinese companies that do business in Russia (yet), but the threats by treasury/commerce dept over the last few weeks as well as the primary full blocking sanctions against major Russian banks have done the job anyway. Even as the Chinese government tries to avoid choosing one side or the other, Chinese businesses are increasingly making that choice. And their choice is not Russia.

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Quite informative report on Russian energy exports since the war of aggression was launched:

https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Fossil-fuel-imports-from-Russia-first-two-months-of-invasion.pdf



My thoughts:

- EU oil embargo (which seems inevitable at this stage) will have a effect, but not so much. Gas is where the real money is made, and there a embargo will take much more time. Of course Russia might now just take that decision for Europe anyway.

- Despite the rhetoric, when it comes down to it (as seen previously) China is neither able nor willing to significantly bail out Russia.

-The western fears/concerns about Chinese oil buying to help evade sanctions are not really justified, but the concerns about India's imports are totally ridiculous. And hypocritical.

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https://www.twitter.com/fneuhann/status/1520809379888566274

According to zdf an EU Oil embargo is now imminent. After Germany dropped it's resistance on the Weekend, the remaining opposition (H*****y, Slovakia, Austria) won't veto.

Just last week Borrell acknowledged that Von der Leyen's push to get Oil embargo into sixth sanctions package had failed at the hands of the member states (led by Germany). How is the turnaround explainable?

By Germany's efforts on reducing dependence of Russian energy at a dizzying speed:
- Imports of Russian oil down from around 35% to 12%.
- Imports of Russian gas down from 55% to around 35%.
- Imports of Russian coal down from 50% to about 8%.

As much as I dislike the rest of the Cabinet here, the work of Robert Habeck (economy minister) has been really good. Questions remain on the adjustment period and Gas embargo will take much longer. Energy embargo is also not just important for itself but also for another reason: Currently Energy dependence is preventing harsher financial sanctions: EU cannot impose full blocking sanctions on Sberbank and Gazprombank, like US and UK have done, or delist them from SWIFT (which as a Belgian company falls under EU jurisdiction) because it would prevent payment transactions for Russian energy. Also no secondary sanctions are possible. Full sanctions so far are limited to VTB and a bunch of others that make up about only 28% of Russian financial system. We should make it 100% to really fukk up their international trade, but this is necessary to do as soon as possible before they can shift to other systems and limit their exposure.

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1525072069435740164

Turkey is making a fuss about NATO expansion (Sweden does have a large Kurdish populations and some PKK-sympathizing politicians, but this is comical exaggeration). Going from their previous behaviour, they will ratify after some posturing for an internal audience and some nominal "concessions" by the other members (see their veto threats against the NATO defense plan for Poland and Baltics at the London summit over Syria).

That said some of the things happening with Turkey in regards to the War have been a bit concerning. It has been overshadowed by the (very important and good) sales of Bayraktars to Ukraine. Turkey is the only NATO member not to impose any sanctions, which is perfectly understandable given their dire economic situation, but you have also had for example the Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu saying in an Interview that "some NATO states want to prolong the Ukraine war so Russia gets weaker" (alluding to the US), which regurgitating just plain Russian propaganda. And this does have an effect on public opinion: In a Metropoll poll only 34 percent of Turks held Russia responsible for the war in Ukraine, while 48 percent blamed the United States and NATO. Of course the latent anti-Americanism in Turkish society and the fantasies of nationalist circles who see the country's future in a Eurasian bloc, precedes Erdogan by a mile, but by posturing to them like this he is also fueling them.

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https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-turkey-not-closing-door-sweden-finland-nato-entry-erdogan-advisor-says-2022-05-14/

And as predicted, Turkey's "no" is not actually a "no", if the price is right. And mainly aimed at Swedish entry, not Finland:

Turkey 'not closing door' to Sweden, Finland NATO entry, Erdogan advisor says.

Turkey has not shut the door to Sweden and Finland joining NATO but wants negotiations with the Nordic countries and a clampdown on what it sees as terrorist activities especially in Stockholm, President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman said on Saturday.

"We are not closing the door. But we are basically raising this issue as a matter of national security for Turkey," Erdogan's top foreign policy advisor Ibrahim Kalin says.

"What needs to be done is clear: they have to stop allowing PKK outlets, activities, organisations, individuals and other types of presence to...exist in those countries," Kalin said.