Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

Based

[Cashew]

I still don't understand what this war is being sold as to the Russian public and the world at large? I mean from my perspective as one of the least anti Russia people here Putin just sent his troops in without bothering to give any explanation sounding remotely reasonable. Surely they have thought up a better excuse than this "denazification" nonsense right?

[super6646]

You have to give credit to the leader sticking about with the situation deteriorating so quickly.

I just don't see how Ukraine is going to hold out in the long run however. Reminds me of the German invasion of Poland in 1939; Russians have points of attack at 3 different fronts with overwhelming superiority in numbers. Only difference being that the Ukrainians are (if we are to believe all reports) inflicting more casualties on the Russians than vice versa, but Russia probably does not care how many losses they have to take.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

While people here are posting memes and Twitter posts about how the glorious Ukrainian army is winning everything and the Russians are burning in their tanks, here's a notice from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry relayed by CNN:

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has warned civilians in the capital Kyiv that fighting is taking place on the streets.

In a Facebook post Saturday, the ministry said:

    "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible!
    If you're in the shelter, don't leave it now.
    If you are at home -- do not go close to the windows, do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments.
    If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) -- go immediately to the nearest shelter!"

So there is street fighting in the capital on the third day of the war. This is what Ukraine winning looks like? Someone compared this to the Winter War earlier, this is not even close to the Winter War.

Kiev was supposed to fall by now, Russians have been forced to bypass major cities, the breakthrough columns are getting bogged down in sieges.

Winning when you are faced with overwhelming numbers means slowing things down, trading casualties favorably, and maintaining a functional army in field that can keep resisting after the inevitable happens. Ukraine is doing that by most estimations.

[Adem 45]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1497345604816711681?s=20&t=g4bgYhgxLsexV...

Good. The terrorists can rot in hell. It's payback for the Ukraine transport that got shot down by russian AA fire last night.

US officials say that now TWO Russian IL-76's were shot down.

Hoping for more.

[KaiserDave]

While people here are posting memes and Twitter posts about how the glorious Ukrainian army is winning everything and the Russians are burning in their tanks, here's a notice from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry relayed by CNN:

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has warned civilians in the capital Kyiv that fighting is taking place on the streets.

In a Facebook post Saturday, the ministry said:

    "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible!
    If you're in the shelter, don't leave it now.
    If you are at home -- do not go close to the windows, do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments.
    If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) -- go immediately to the nearest shelter!"

So there is street fighting in the capital on the third day of the war. This is what Ukraine winning looks like? Someone compared this to the Winter War earlier, this is not even close to the Winter War.

Cope idiot
Kyiv is not yet lost

Why do you always take the most revolting view on everything?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Are there any military experts on this forum?

Someone who can show us a website with the actual map of what is going on from a strategic point of view.



That is as good as Australian media gets; not very informative to be honest. The media is just custard at delivering the facts.

[WD]

While people here are posting memes and Twitter posts about how the glorious Ukrainian army is winning everything and the Russians are burning in their tanks, here's a notice from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry relayed by CNN:

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has warned civilians in the capital Kyiv that fighting is taking place on the streets.

In a Facebook post Saturday, the ministry said:

    "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible!
    If you're in the shelter, don't leave it now.
    If you are at home -- do not go close to the windows, do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments.
    If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) -- go immediately to the nearest shelter!"

So there is street fighting in the capital on the third day of the war. This is what Ukraine winning looks like? Someone compared this to the Winter War earlier, this is not even close to the Winter War.

Cope idiot
Kyiv is not yet lost

Why do you always take the most revolting view on everything?

Must be hard for Compucomp to type these posts with only one hand.

[super6646]

While people here are posting memes and Twitter posts about how the glorious Ukrainian army is winning everything and the Russians are burning in their tanks, here's a notice from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry relayed by CNN:

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has warned civilians in the capital Kyiv that fighting is taking place on the streets.

In a Facebook post Saturday, the ministry said:

    "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible!
    If you're in the shelter, don't leave it now.
    If you are at home -- do not go close to the windows, do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments.
    If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) -- go immediately to the nearest shelter!"

So there is street fighting in the capital on the third day of the war. This is what Ukraine winning looks like? Someone compared this to the Winter War earlier, this is not even close to the Winter War.

Kiev was supposed to fall by now, Russians have been forced to bypass major cities, the breakthrough columns are getting bogged down in sieges.

Winning when you are faced with overwhelming numbers means slowing things down, trading casualties favorably, and maintaining a functional army in field that can keep resisting after the inevitable happens. Ukraine is doing that by most estimations.

Ehhhh...

I mean it is only the third day of fighting and already you have Russian forces at a depth of about 200 kms from the Belarusian border.

Its good that Ukraine is inflicting more casualties on the Russians than they are taking, but that only matters if the enemy cares about their losses. Evidently I don't see that as the case.

I do hope against all odds Kyiv becomes the Stalingrad for Putin, but I think at some point he is going to win out and get his regime change.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s circa 2% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

[Storr]

Are there any military experts on this forum?

Someone who can show us a website with the actual map of what is going on from a strategic point of view.



That is as good as Australian media gets; not very informative to be honest. The media is just custard at delivering the facts.

There's this from a nonprofit called the Institute for the Study of War that's put out a "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment" the past two days. There analysis has been pretty good in my amateur opinion: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2022

[super6646]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s 2-3% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

So Ukrainians are inflicting casualties at a 6:1-8:1 rate if I am correct?

[DaleCooper]

While people here are posting memes and Twitter posts about how the glorious Ukrainian army is winning everything and the Russians are burning in their tanks, here's a notice from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry relayed by CNN:

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has warned civilians in the capital Kyiv that fighting is taking place on the streets.

In a Facebook post Saturday, the ministry said:

    "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible!
    If you're in the shelter, don't leave it now.
    If you are at home -- do not go close to the windows, do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments.
    If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) -- go immediately to the nearest shelter!"

So there is street fighting in the capital on the third day of the war. This is what Ukraine winning looks like? Someone compared this to the Winter War earlier, this is not even close to the Winter War.

Kiev was supposed to fall by now, Russians have been forced to bypass major cities, the breakthrough columns are getting bogged down in sieges.

Winning when you are faced with overwhelming numbers means slowing things down, trading casualties favorably, and maintaining a functional army in field that can keep resisting after the inevitable happens. Ukraine is doing that by most estimations.

Ehhhh...

I mean it is only the third day of fighting and already you have Russian forces at a depth of about 200 kms from the Belarusian border.

Its good that Ukraine is inflicting more casualties on the Russians than they are taking, but that only matters if the enemy cares about their losses. Evidently I don't see that as the case.

I do hope against all odds Kyiv becomes the Stalingrad for Putin, but I think at some point he is going to win out and get his regime change.

Unfortunately Ukraine is almost certainly going to fall. The hope is that enough Russians die to deter further invasions.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I thought it was twitter propaganda but wow this seems to be going into Winter war 2.0 which would be impressive considering Ukraines terrain is much worse to defend than Finland.

Genuinely asking, can Ukraine actually win this thing? Or are they just gonna make sh*t suck for the VDV while still not being able to successfully hold back all of the mechanized battalions?

The main issue for the Ukrainians is that even if they win many defensive victories and make advancing on their strongpoints painful, the Russian army has a huge number of forces yet to be deployed (estimated around 60,000 of over 200,000 prepared on the borders alone) and both Kiev and Mariupol are on the verge of encirclement. Zelensky holding his ground might be admirable but if he stays in Kiev then Putin just has an enormous range of options available even if the direct assault fails. He can starve it out with occasional shellings like Sarajevo or if he's desperate for a quick win he could unleash massed artillery on the city and flatten it like Grozny.

If Putin had to push all the way to Lviv it might be a different story but the geography of Ukraine just makes cutting the supply lines of the largest concentrations of Ukrainian forces way too easy. My guess is that if Russian forces aren't able to take Kyiv immediately they'll just go around, take the highways connecting the major cities, and wait for the Ukrainians to run out of supplies in a week or two.

Of course it's also possible Putin genuinely bought his own garbage about the Ukrainian military surrendering without a fight and only needing enough forces to handle the Ukrainian equivalent of ISIS. They gave up pretty fast in 2014 after all, but that was back when their leadership was still littered with Soviet holdovers with little loyalty to the post-Maidan Ukrainian government, whereas the Ukrainian military of 2022 is filled with people who joined with the expectation of combat with Russia. In that case the Ukrainians might actually have a shot, but I wouldn't get my hopes up unless they're able to keep a path to Kiev open or if they're able to evacuate the government to Lviv in a way that isn't catastrophically demoralizing.

Remember that conquering Iraq took a month, so don't get too excited about the developments of a single day. Armenia seemed to be doing well until things went very bad very fast.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s circa 2% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

Exact Russian casualty figures are pretty much the definition of MRDA for official Ukrainian sources, but the fact that it's even semi-plausible makes it clear that, whatever else, Putin is sending his troops into a much bloodier meat grinder than seemed likely.

[Storr]

If there's one not terrible thing to come from war, it's iconic photography. This might be one of those: https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1497420540411273217?s=20&t=VDtUqhJb...

[Yoda]

TAKE THIS WITH A BUCKET OF SALT

Video reportedly shows an APC getting showered by Molotovs in Kiev

https://twitter.com/DavidRi66650282/status/1497411007865573382

HOLY MOTHER OF BASED

Edit: In that Tweet it said it's from Euromaidan. Irregardless, it's based AF and I can't wait to see it be used on the r*ssians.

I am in awe of this video HOLY ING sh**t

I hope Putin is ready for a permanent Afghanistan-level insurgency b/c thats what he is going to get

Ukranians have some goddamn STONES on them I tell you what

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...
Out of a force of 190,000, that’s 2-3% attrition in 48 hours. That’s a staggering amount if accurate.

So Ukrainians are inflicting casualties at a 6:1-8:1 rate if I am correct?

If you believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, which I don't.

I do believe that Russia is taking much heavier than expected casualties based on what we've seen in places like Sumy and Chernihiv.

[NOVA Green]

So looking like street to street fighting is occurring close to the City Center:

In fierce street fighting in Kyiv, bursts of gunfire and explosions echoed through several areas of the city. Early Saturday morning, Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news site, citing eyewitnesses, reported combat in Victory Square, a little over a mile from the city center, Maidan Square. Fighting had also raged nearby around the city’s train station and along a central thoroughfare leading from Victory Square toward the city center, Bohdan Khmelnitsky Street, the site said. Along that street closer to the city center, bursts of gunfire could be heard through the night.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/25/world/russia-ukraine-war

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497454034709585925?s=20&t=jVUi1xo6...https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497456037070315520?s=20&t=jVUi1xo6...

[All Along The Watchtower]

[lfromnj]

You have to give credit to the leader sticking about with the situation deteriorating so quickly.

I just don't see how Ukraine is going to hold out in the long run however. Reminds me of the German invasion of Poland in 1939; Russians have points of attack at 3 different fronts with overwhelming superiority in numbers. Only difference being that the Ukrainians are (if we are to believe all reports) inflicting more casualties on the Russians than vice versa, but Russia probably does not care how many losses they have to take.

The Poles did have a fall back plan to the SE corridor but it completely fell apart due to the Soviet invasion . A victory wasn't there but at the same time Poland wouldn't have fallen within 1 month. It's really important to realize how crippling Poland's defense was especially to the Luftwaffe which lost a large percentage of its aircraft. France's fall was embarrassing beyond any proportion but the Polish defense was workable considering the circumstances.

[Yoda]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

This is great but Brooooooooo stop showing yourself in front of easily recognizable buildings!

You're a symbol at this point, you have a duty to stay alive.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497460304443318274
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497464792361099264
By some miracle, there were no casualties from this. But so much for Russia making an effort to avoid citizen casualties, "brother peoples" and all that.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

This is great but Brooooooooo stop showing yourself in front of easily recognizable buildings!

You're a symbol at this point, you have a duty to stay alive.

I agree with you, but the bolded is, of course, exactly why he's doing it.