India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

It seems, going by the after-the-fact interviews of key people in INC, that Rahul Gandhi did not want to contest in UP mainly because if he won 2 seats he would not want to vacate the Wayanad seat in Kerala for fear that it would impact the 2026 UDF effort in Kerala assembly elections.  On the other hand, the UP INC plus SP are putting pressure on Rahul Gandhi to contest in UP. 

Separately it seems Priyanka Gandhi did not want to contest this time around period.

So it seems the way out is to

a) Delay the announcement until at least after Kerala has voted so as not to impact the INC effort there
b) Have Rahul Gandhi run in UP but not Priyanka Gandhi as a compromise with UP INC and SP
c) Eventually go with Rae Bareli where Rahul Gandhi will win but he will likely have to vacate and INC has a chance of winning the by-election.  If Rahul Gandhi runs and wins in Amethi the INC will for sure lose the by-election after he vacates that seat.

It seems going by these interviews Rahul Gandhi is much more focused on winning back Kerala in the 2026 assembly election than working for a UP revival of INC.  I guess that effort he is delegating to Priyanka Gandhi.

[jaichind]

Muslims share population by seat in Assam

NDA will sweep all seats with a Muslim population below 40% with ease.  In the 40%+ Muslim population, the AIUDF and INC will split the Muslim vote giving NDA a chance. 

AGP has been given Dhubri and Barpeta because they are the more junior partner and get the less winnable seats but also AGP has residual Muslim support.  AIUDF will most likely win Dhubri.  I have AGP winning Barpeta even though AIUDF is not running due to an internal split in the INC,  AGP candidate quality, and CPM running to split the INC vote.   I have INC winning Nagaon despite AIUDF running due to INC candidate's quality edge over BJP.

[jaichind]

BJP ad to counter the INC narrative of BJP wanting to take away reservation by claiming that INC wanted to squeeze Muslims into the OBC/Dalit reservation quota saying that is what INC has done in Karnataka.   Of course, the key problem with that was that when Modi was CM of Gujarat he also had Muslim OBC in the OBC reservation list so Modi himself is guilty in the past of what he claims INC will do.

https://twitter.com/PoliticalViewsO/status/1787415987643613615

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rahul-gandhi-2024-lok-sabha-election-will-remove-50-cap-give-as-much-reservation-as-needed-rahul-gandhi-5600491

""Will Remove 50% Cap, Give As Much Reservation As Needed": Rahul Gandhi"

In the race to the bottom between BJP and INC over reservation now Rahul Gandhi promises to break the 50% cap on reservations.  What is ironic about this is that such a move will require a change in the Constitution which is what the INC is accusing the BJP of planning to remove reservations.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ranchi/ed-recovers-rs-25-crore-and-counting-still-on-who-is-jharkhand-minister-alamgir-alam/articleshow/109876538.cms

"ED recovers Rs 25 crore and counting still on: Who is Jharkhand minister Alamgir Alam"

Over $3 million found in the house of a domestic help of a INC MLA and Jharkhand minister.  Most likely this money is related to funding for the election. 

In most seats any serious candidate need to spend $7 million or more to have a chance at winning.  In the South this number is higher.
 

[jaichind]

Phase 3 voting is to take place tomorrow across 94 seats.

In 2019 NDA won 81 of these seats.   This time NDA can only lose and I expect them to win 72 of these seats mostly due to losses in Karnataka and Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-06/modi-says-no-country-should-run-on-strength-of-one-man-alone

"Modi Questioned on Whether He Would Contest Elections in 2029"

In an interview it seems Modi implies he is not likely to run for re-election in 2029