English local elections 2011

[bullmoose88]

Rallings and Thrasher have posted their 'national equivalent vote share' prediction for the locals.

In 2007 this was CON 40, LAB 26, LIB 24
They put this year (based on by-election results) at LAB 38, CON 34-38, LIB 16-22

How many councillors/councils can Labour expect to get this time, now that theyre going to get a boost from being the opposition?

[bullmoose88]

Why are the Tories only down a handful of councillors? What's the story?

Lib Dems getting the beating instead?

[bullmoose88]

Projected vote share based on English councils

Lab 37% (+8) Con 35% (-1) LD 15 (-8)


Hmm.

[bullmoose88]

Just jumping in here, obviously looks like the Tories hanging tough while Labour pummels the LibDems, is that the developing story?

Seems to be the main narrative...a side narrative is that the Tories and Labour are arguing over a shifting set of goal posts of Labour gains in order to say whether Labour succeeded tonight.

In other news, the world is round.

[bullmoose88]

Would it be too big a stretch to say Labour not pushing the Tories too hard + Labour crapout in Scotland equals at least a push on the night for the Conservatives?

Just jumping in here, obviously looks like the Tories hanging tough while Labour pummels the LibDems, is that the developing story?

Seems to be the main narrative...a side narrative is that the Tories and Labour are arguing over a shifting set of goal posts of Labour gains in order to say whether Labour succeeded tonight.

In other news, the world is round.

Lib Dem collapse everywhere, particularly in Scotland isn't helping Labour.

Tories up 2% in Wales, Labour in the 40s, PC 21%, Con 20%...decent chance the tories come in 2nd.