Brighton and Hove
can't post links yet
I'll upload my map once I can
North Portslade, 1 Lab, 1 con
South Portslade, as above
Must win seats for labour, regaining the two seats lost in 2007 is a critical priority but shouldn't be too taxing.
Hangleton and Knoll, 3 con
Has been labour held recently, and is a major target for recovery, bpb reckons its heading for a split though, with Tories holding on to one seat. There is also a former Tory-independent in the running to complicate matters
Wish 2 con
Western Hove/Aldrington, reasonably safe, but could go to labour on a very bad night for the tories
Westbourne, 2 con
the eastern part of the pre '74 aldrington district, fairly safe, but has been designated a "cardboard " target by the greens (ie, one up from being paper candidates), they will probably only win if momentum catapaults them into a majority.
Central Hove, 2 Con
Like Westbourne, has been designated by Greens as having "cardboard" candidates, which means its less likely to fall this time as resources are ploughed into two unwinnable wards in the north of Caroline Lucas' constituency instead, still one to watch out for as the Lib Dem slump puts Labour in the running as well.
Brunswick and Adilade, 1 LD, 1 ex-LD
Apart from the two wards where they hold 1/3 seats, this is the top target for the greens, and even though the former ld cllr and two-time parliamentary candidate is standing, two relatively simple gains for the greens are the most likely outcome
Goldsmid, 1 con 1 grn 1 lab
The Greens’ first seat in hove is a prime target, second only to Preston Park, the greens should gain the remaining tory seat after their by election win two years ago, but Labour, could however, hold onto their seat
Hove Park, formerly known as Stanford, 1 ind, 1 con
the minority tory administration has been propped up by the independent cllr's vote since losing its majority in the private eye-induced Goldsmid by-election in 2009 (actually thats a lie, its been dependent on Labour sitting on their hands at times) ultra safe for the Tories, with normal service being restored by the independent cllr standing down
Withdean, 3 con, Has been designated a target ward by the greens, purely for being in Caroline Lucas's constituency, but will stay blue till judgement day.
Patcham and Hollingbury, 3 con
As above but labour could pick up one seat out of three, something they'll probably need to do in order to come out on top if they can't turn back the green tide in the centre of the city.
Hollingdean and Stanmer 3 lab
Contains the Sussex University campus as well as estates like Coldean and the Bates estate. Likely gains by the Greens, but likely to split with at least one labour cllr holding on
Preston Park, 1 Green, 2 Lab
The greens gained a seat here in 2003, but failed to improve on it in 2007, historically a champagne socialist area, could go either way
Saint Peter’s and North Laine, 3 green
The first ward to fall to the Greens, recent by election was won on 60% of the vote
Regency, 2 green
Gained from the Lib Dems in 2007 but shouldn’t be too difficult for the greens to hold unless Labour really pull something out of the bag
Hannover and Elm Grove, 3 green
Second safest ward for the greens, large student population and also known as “muesli mountain”
Queens Park, 3 grn
There is a potential for Labour to regain some or all of the seats they lost in 2007, as this was a personal backlash against the ruling clique of the Labour administration. Contains the bulk of fabulous Kemptown, but also areas of council housing, as well as the job centre, police station and county court all next to eachother.
East Brighton 3 Lab
Should be safe, Tories and Greens might run have them close if they were still in power at westminster
Moulsecoomb and Bevendean, 2 Lab, 1 Con
Tories gained a seat in 2007, unlikely for them to gain other two, another “cardboard” for the Greens and could end up split three ways, three labour cllrs is most likely though
Woodingdean, 2 con
A separate town that has clear green space on all sides, any change would probably give the two tory candidates and the returning officer heart attacks
Rottingdean Costal. 3 con
As above but includes the marina and a bit of what should probably be in the East Brighton ward
Phew.
I think that the most likely outcome is a Baden-Wuttemburg scenario, but I have doubts about the local Labour party’s willingness to enter a green-led coalition. I’m not going to attempt a more in-depth prediction, Instead, I’ll provide a map of how things would probably look if the LDs crash out and the other three parties split equally, 18 seats each