WA-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Adam Smith (D) is in trouble

[Ogre Mage]

Not sure what to make of this poll.  WA-09 is a modestly Democratic district and Smith is a reasonably entrenched incumbent.  However, there are a lot of working-class folks here who have likely been hit hard by The Great Recession.  It is likely Smith will still win, but probably by a closer margin than he is used to.

With regards to the Senate races, it strikes me there are two key differences between CA/WA and WI.  CA/WA have been solidly Democratic states in Presidential elections for the last few decades.  WI is a swing state which has usually been closely contested.  In a statewide federal race I think this matters.

The other is that the challengers in CA and WA have serious vulnerabilities.  Dino Rossi is a two-time statewide loser with a history of sleazy business dealings.  Carly Fiorina had a controversial (to put it politely) tenure at HP from which she profited handsomely even though many others at the company did not and she has taken far-right positions ill-suited to the California electorate.

Ron Johnson doesn't appear to have this baggage.  There is no political or legislative record to analyze.  For those of us outside the state, he seems rather like a blank slate with a lot of money.  But in this environment that may be enough.