2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

INFO/Focus, 12.01.2013, Niedersachsen State Election:

CDU 38%
SPD 31,5%
Grüne 14,5%
Linke 6%

FDP 4,5%
Piraten 3%

Red-Green majority (46-44).

But only works if the FDP stays out, of course. And the Linke number seems a bit high to me.

[minionofmidas]

CDU-FDP hanging on depending on the Left staying out does tend to ensure it gets in. In the end, people usually want the government out more than they want a particular alternative in.

And it's not as if the state SPD ruled out governing with the Left if necessary.

[Franzl]

CDU-FDP hanging on depending on the Left staying out does tend to ensure it gets in. In the end, people usually want the government out more than they want a particular alternative in.

And it's not as if the state SPD ruled out governing with the Left if necessary.

We'll see, but Lower Saxony really doesn't seem like a place where the Left should be doubling its support at the last minute...

I was thinking McAllister would survive somehow, but maybe confirming black-yellow in office is too much for some people to stomach.

I'd probably vote SPD in this election, btw.

[minionofmidas]

CDU-FDP hanging on depending on the Left staying out does tend to ensure it gets in. In the end, people usually want the government out more than they want a particular alternative in.

And it's not as if the state SPD ruled out governing with the Left if necessary.

We'll see, but Lower Saxony really doesn't seem like a place where the Left should be doubling its support at the last minute...

Meh, who knows whether that 3% was ever accurate.

Also, of course... the Left got 7.1% in 2008, more than in Hesse on the same day (though that had a lot to do with the state SPD being wholly uninspiring and the resulting low turnout) and 8.6% at the 2009 federals, above their West German average.

[mubar]

There was also a third poll in Niedersachsen out Thursday.

Lower Saxony - Infratest dimap for ARD, 10.01.2013

40% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

SPD-Greens 46-45 over CDU-FDP.

This is almost identical with the FG Wahlen and GMS polls published the same day, and their field periods are also similar, as all three have collected their data early this week. The field period of the outlier poll from INFO is in fact a week earlier than the others, just after new year's day, which might explain something, though not the Linke surge. INFO's new poll is the first and only Lower Saxony poll since September that expects Linke to cross the 5% limit.

If the poll consensus holds right, then the Left would not get in and FDP would have 50-50 chance of clearing the 5% hurdle. Based on that, CDU just has to lend some Zweitstimmen-support to FDP to keep up the hope of a continuing right-wing government. The Left is more of a question, however: as has been said above, they have actually had better results in Lower Saxony than in other western states (Saarland being the obvious exception). And in January 2008, all polls predicted 3% to 5% for the Left, and still they got 7,1%. So there is room for surprise.

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid poll:

41% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
14% Greens
  8% Left
  4% Pirates
  3% FDP
  4% Others

In the last 2 months, the gap between CDU/CSU and SPD has widened from 8% to 15% ...



Indeed ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

SIGH...

[Franzl]

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing

[Antonio the Sixth]

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing

Kinda yeah...

At this point, the best thing that could happen to SPD is probably for it to fall into irrelevancy and start again from scratch in a couple years.

[Franzl]

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing

Kinda yeah...

At this point, the best thing that could happen to SPD is probably for it to fall into irrelevancy and start again from scratch in a couple years.

It's still very unlikely, of course, but a CDU absolute majority might be best for everyone. Stable government, FDP and SPD get to start over...

[Antonio the Sixth]

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing

Kinda yeah...

At this point, the best thing that could happen to SPD is probably for it to fall into irrelevancy and start again from scratch in a couple years.

It's still very unlikely, of course, but a CDU absolute majority might be best for everyone. Stable government, FDP and SPD get to start over...

Very true.

However, I'd rather it not happen in such crucial times for Europe, where CDU's stances could potentially ruin everything... (Yes, I know SPD isn't much better on this regard, but still)

[minionofmidas]

SIGH...

CDU alone is higher than red-green...

However you feel about that...it is amusing

Kinda yeah...

At this point, the best thing that could happen to SPD is probably for it to fall into irrelevancy and start again from scratch in a couple years.

It's still very unlikely, of course, but a CDU absolute majority might be best for everyone. Stable government, FDP and SPD get to start over...

I remain of the opinion that crashing out of the Bundestag would probably be the death of the FDP, and have been at pretty much any point since the 60s.

[Niemeyerite]

Time to start thinking about a coalition with the Greens and the Left, SPD.

[minionofmidas]

Time to start thinking about a coalition with the Greens and the Left, SPD.

It's too late, for 2013.

And it's not as if the nationwide Left has been trying to become more "respectable" either, the hard left's influence has grown.

[Tender Branson]

Time to start thinking about a coalition with the Greens and the Left, SPD.

2013 is gone.

Either CDU-FDP again or a Grand Coalition.

Then in 2017, Merkel vs. Kraft.

[Franzl]

Kraft would be a very good idea for the SPD.

[Niemeyerite]

Time to start thinking about a coalition with the Greens and the Left, SPD.

2013 is gone.

Either CDU-FDP again or a Grand Coalition.

Then in 2017, Merkel vs. Kraft.

If there's a Grand Coalition, SPD will have to forget about 2017, most likely.

[RodPresident]

In former West Germany, SPD should be open to coalitions with Left Party, at least to see how works.

[Franzl]

In former West Germany, SPD should be open to coalitions with Left Party, at least to see how works.

At this point, there aren't that many places in West Germany where the Left would even get in.

[minionofmidas]

In former West Germany, SPD should be open to coalitions with Left Party, at least to see how works.

And things are moving that way at the state level.

[ERvND]

From a purely tactical point of view, a black-green coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens) would be ideal for the SPD. Many Green Party members were politically socialised in the 80s and 90s, in strong opposition to the Kohl government, and are still staunchly anti-conservative. In case of a black-green coalition, they would most likely move to the SPD, already beginning during the coalition agreement talks. The Greens being forced to compromise with the CDU would alienate their base even more.

The leaders of the Greens know this as well, of course, which is why it won't happen.

[You kip if you want to...]

The leaders of the Greens know this as well, of course, which is why it won't happen.

Said LibDem supporters before the last UK election.

[Franknburger]

INSA/YouGov poll, Federal election (15.1.2013)

CDU 39 ()
SPD 28 ()
Grüne 15 (+1)
Linke 7 ()

FDP 4 ()
Piraten 3 ()

Freie Wähler 2 ()
others 2 (-1)

Less swingy than the other recent polls, but its internet polling.

[Franzl]

CDU/CSU is continuing it's dramatic gains in the newest Forsa poll. And now a TWENTY point margin between them and the SPD.

Forsa, 16.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 43%
SPD 23%
Grüne 14%
Linke 8%

Piraten 4%
FDP 3%

Black ALONE is only trailing the entire (represented) opposition 43-45.
Red-Green FAR AWAY from a majority (37-51).

[Franknburger]

You beat me on the FORSA poll! Nevertheless, one more interesting detail:  According to FORSA, many SPD leaners, frustrated and irritated by the debate on Steinbrück, "duck away and don't dare to commit to their party".

But i still have one:

EMNID, Bavaria State elections (for CSU!), 15.01.13:

CSU      48 ()
SPD      20 (-1)
Grüne   12 (+2)
FW         8 ()

FDP       3 (-1)
Linke     3 (+1)
Piraten   3 (-1)
Others   3 ()

Changes relate to last EMNID poll (14.10.2012)