Post-Realignment Electoral Map? (user search)
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  Post-Realignment Electoral Map? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post-Realignment Electoral Map?  (Read 13041 times)
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« on: November 27, 2017, 08:18:40 PM »



As Republicans, then, are making inroads into Hispanics and Asians, even as the Democrats begin to cut into the Upper South's WWC voters and working class minorities.
How do rural whites vote in this scenario? Are they more GOP or less?

They must be voting much less GOP in this scenario, at least in the South.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2017, 10:13:31 PM »

Merkin's Maxim: When in doubt, predict that the present trend will continue.

The present trend is for the GOP to become increasingly white, Christian (Evangelical or Catholic), non-Hispanic, and less educated (and eventually, poorer), while the Dems become ever more diverse and cosmopolitan.

This, I think any trend over the next 15-25 years will involve some of the following:

KY, OH, PA, WV becoming even more Republican than they already are.

NC eventually lean D or even safe D, like VA.

AZ, GA, and TX gradually becoming more Dem as their urban areas grow and become more diverse.

MI, OR, WA staying about the same, but with an ever more stark division within each state.

CA becoming even more Dem.

Dem strength will be even more concentrated in cities and wealthier and more diverse suburbs, while the GOP will do best in poorer suburbs and rural areas.

Maybe this:


Dem-327 (per current EV distribution)
GOP-211
FL, TX, GA, and AZ will be swing, not blue states.
By that point, I'd assume that Georgia and Arizona would at least be Lean D, probably similar to modern Virginia.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2018, 04:19:28 PM »

Well, I only just realized this post is months old after I finished this, but whatever.


That doesn't look like much of a re-alignment to me.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2018, 11:54:49 AM »

More of the Deep South/Gulf Coast than just GA/TX should give out by the time New England flips and New York gets competitive again, and I would expect GA and TX to be Lean D by that time.  I'm thinking LA and MS would go before SC or AL (under normal circumstances).  Also, not convinced at all that Florida trends Dem from here.  A massive influx of 2:1 Trump Midwestern retirees continues there.

Dem upsets going forward will be more like Jones and Bel Edwards (red states with anomalously religious medium/large cities) and less like Tester, Heitkamp, and Manchin (populists in very rural, agriculture/energy states).
South Carolina will certainly flip before Louisiana or Mississippi, but otherwise I agree with this.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2018, 01:55:08 PM »

Just to clarify, all of you do realize the prompt was "Realignment", not "Extrapolate the 2016 trends one election into the future?". This is an actual realignment.  
What could cause this?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2018, 05:23:08 PM »

I made some slight changes to my map to make it a little more realistic.

Basically, I decided to shift Texas to Likely Republican because I really don't see the state going Democratic at any point in the next 20 years, due to the overwhelmingly Republican white population, along with the fact Republicans do better with Hispanics their then in any other state, and neither of these things will change any time soon. I also shifted Michigan to Lean Republican, because in the next 10 years Detroits population will probably stabilize somewhere around 500,000, and combined with declining rural areas and a slowly diversyifing population (by Midwestern standards), a Likely Republican rating is a little to harsh. Finally, I decided to switch Colorado and Nevada from Likely to Lean Democratic, and New Mexico from Safe to Likely Democratic to account for the rural areas in those states. 
Firstly, this is yet another map that isn't a realignment. secondly, this prediction is absurd but about what I'd expect from you.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2018, 11:43:18 PM »

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result



This will probably come in the 2040s
The Plains states should probably be a little less GOP here, and the Northeast should be a little more GOP.
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