Post-Realignment Electoral Map?

[jamestroll]

Well, I only just realized this post is months old after I finished this, but whatever.

Nope.

Minnesota will be toss up, Illinois SOLID Democrat, New Hampshire SAFE EXTREMELY SAFE DEM, South Carolina Safe Republican and Florida will be a toss up.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well, I only just realized this post is months old after I finished this, but whatever.

flip GA and FL and I agree .

[Mr.Phips]

Here's my map, based on my own assessment of where things seem to be going, more or less. Not exactly a "realignment", but more my view of current and likely trends.

Preliminary notes on this: obviously on this map Democrats have a significant (62-vote) advantage over the Republicans in their electoral floor (259-196, but there's gonna be fierce competition for those 84 "toss-up" votes I left on the table. 196+ 84 = 280 = Republican EV win.

Republicans have a narrower path to victory than Democrats here, for sure, but they do indeed have a path (or a couple, even -  a few variants on Trump's path in 2016, basically). And the floor for both parties is fragile: notice the light shading on many of the important "swing" states, or the fact that I rated Michigan, Florida, Georgia (!), and Wisconsin as toss-ups.  Pretty precarious electoral situation for both parties.

I agree with those who think that Arizona and Georgia will be in play before Texas - likely well before IMHO.

Anyway, questions and commentary on this map are of course welcome.

Arkansas?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Close election:

Republican Landslide:

Democrat Landslide:

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Just to clarify, all of you do realize the prompt was "Realignment", not "Extrapolate the 2016 trends one election into the future?". This is an actual realignment.  

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Just to clarify, all of you do realize the prompt was "Realignment", not "Extrapolate the 2016 trends one election into the future?". This is an actual realignment.  

What could cause this?

[King Lear]

I made some slight changes to my map to make it a little more realistic.

Basically, I decided to shift Texas to Likely Republican because I really don't see the state going Democratic at any point in the next 20 years, due to the overwhelmingly Republican white population, along with the fact Republicans do better with Hispanics their then in any other state, and neither of these things will change any time soon. I also shifted Michigan to Lean Republican, because in the next 10 years Detroits population will probably stabilize somewhere around 500,000, and combined with declining rural areas and a slowly diversyifing population (by Midwestern standards), a Likely Republican rating is a little to harsh. Finally, I decided to switch Colorado and Nevada from Likely to Lean Democratic, and New Mexico from Safe to Likely Democratic to account for the rural areas in those states. 

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I made some slight changes to my map to make it a little more realistic.

Basically, I decided to shift Texas to Likely Republican because I really don't see the state going Democratic at any point in the next 20 years, due to the overwhelmingly Republican white population, along with the fact Republicans do better with Hispanics their then in any other state, and neither of these things will change any time soon. I also shifted Michigan to Lean Republican, because in the next 10 years Detroits population will probably stabilize somewhere around 500,000, and combined with declining rural areas and a slowly diversyifing population (by Midwestern standards), a Likely Republican rating is a little to harsh. Finally, I decided to switch Colorado and Nevada from Likely to Lean Democratic, and New Mexico from Safe to Likely Democratic to account for the rural areas in those states. 

Firstly, this is yet another map that isn't a realignment. secondly, this prediction is absurd but about what I'd expect from you.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Just to clarify, all of you do realize the prompt was "Realignment", not "Extrapolate the 2016 trends one election into the future?". This is an actual realignment.  

What could cause this?

This is my guess at the future of Between Two Majorities. Democrats go populist left, and the gop shifts to a libertarian centrism.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Here's my map, based on my own assessment of where things seem to be going, more or less. Not exactly a "realignment", but more my view of current and likely trends.

Preliminary notes on this: obviously on this map Democrats have a significant (62-vote) advantage over the Republicans in their electoral floor (259-196, but there's gonna be fierce competition for those 84 "toss-up" votes I left on the table. 196+ 84 = 280 = Republican EV win.

Republicans have a narrower path to victory than Democrats here, for sure, but they do indeed have a path (or a couple, even -  a few variants on Trump's path in 2016, basically). And the floor for both parties is fragile: notice the light shading on many of the important "swing" states, or the fact that I rated Michigan, Florida, Georgia (!), and Wisconsin as toss-ups.  Pretty precarious electoral situation for both parties.

I agree with those who think that Arizona and Georgia will be in play before Texas - likely well before IMHO.

Anyway, questions and commentary on this map are of course welcome.

Arkansas?

D'oh! Good catch.

[Skill and Chance]

Just to clarify, all of you do realize the prompt was "Realignment", not "Extrapolate the 2016 trends one election into the future?". This is an actual realignment.  

What could cause this?

This is my guess at the future of Between Two Majorities. Democrats go populist left, and the gop shifts to a libertarian centrism.

Yes, this looks like religious left Dems with a social justice streak vs. libertarian GOP with a technocratic streak.  I'm assuming FL, NY, GA, and TN are swing states?  It also looks like climate change has become a top tier issue with the depopulation of the gulf coast and the extra EVs in the northwest states.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Just to clarify, all of you do realize the prompt was "Realignment", not "Extrapolate the 2016 trends one election into the future?". This is an actual realignment.  

What could cause this?

This is my guess at the future of Between Two Majorities. Democrats go populist left, and the gop shifts to a libertarian centrism.

Yes, this looks like religious left Dems with a social justice streak vs. libertarian GOP with a technocratic streak.  I'm assuming FL, NY, GA, and TN are swing states?  It also looks like climate change has become a top tier issue with the depopulation of the gulf coast and the extra EVs in the northwest states.

Correct on all counts.

[libertpaulian]

Just to clarify, all of you do realize the prompt was "Realignment", not "Extrapolate the 2016 trends one election into the future?". This is an actual realignment.  

What could cause this?

This is my guess at the future of Between Two Majorities. Democrats go populist left, and the gop shifts to a libertarian centrism.

Yes, this looks like religious left Dems with a social justice streak vs. libertarian GOP with a technocratic streak.  I'm assuming FL, NY, GA, and TN are swing states?  It also looks like climate change has become a top tier issue with the depopulation of the gulf coast and the extra EVs in the northwest states.

Correct on all counts.

Wouldn't climate change also affect the Southwest, given how their water resources are more limited than other parts of the country?

[Skill and Chance]

This is increasingly plausible, and it would probably lead to 20+ years of a Dem House/GOP Senate split:

[Lord Admirale]

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result

This will probably come in the 2040s

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result

This will probably come in the 2040s

The Plains states should probably be a little less GOP here, and the Northeast should be a little more GOP.

[RINO Tom]

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result

This will probably come in the 2040s

The Plains states should probably be a little less GOP here, and the Northeast should be a little more GOP.

IMO, the Plains states don't really vote Republican for the exact same reasons as, say, Arkansas.  All of these states voted Republican throughout the vast majority of time that a state like West Virginia was more friendly to Democrats.  They're states that do relatively well on their own and don't want to be interfered with, and there is a HUGE culture of self-reliance.  They'd stay remarkably GOP in most circumstances, IMO.

[Lord Admirale]

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result

This will probably come in the 2040s

The Plains states should probably be a little less GOP here, and the Northeast should be a little more GOP.

IMO, the Plains states don't really vote Republican for the exact same reasons as, say, Arkansas.  All of these states voted Republican throughout the vast majority of time that a state like West Virginia was more friendly to Democrats.  They're states that do relatively well on their own and don't want to be interfered with, and there is a HUGE culture of self-reliance.  They'd stay remarkably GOP in most circumstances, IMO.

This.

The only way ND/SD/NE/etc. would go Dem is either in a super landslide or a William Jennings Bryan-esque figure rose up in the Democratic Party. I know I used populism as an example, but I think only agriculture-centric would work in that region to overcome its heavily Republican leanings.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result

This will probably come in the 2040s

With that map I would move OR,OH to lean R , and WA to Tossup

[Kamala's side hoe]

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result

This will probably come in the 2040s

Why would Tennessee not lean Democratic like its neighbors? Is it just to keep the electoral college evenly split?

[Lord Admirale]

If the Democrats continue to become the populist-left and the GOP is forced to move to the center as a result

This will probably come in the 2040s

Why would Tennessee not lean Democratic like its neighbors? Is it just to keep the electoral college evenly split?

I'd say its more Democratic than Republican, but historically its been more friendly to the GOP than most of its former Confederate relatives.

[BigVic]

It’s now 2021 and we are closer to the 2024 election than we are to 2012. Can we see this happening in the next 11 years or so?