i think there is a large disconnect here.
I view this question as asking about politics, and political machination. Others seem to view it about history and policy.
You cant understand politics if you dont understand voters. And voter patterns are often driven by history and policy.
This I disagree with, as someone who's both done and studied this, people on here either give way too much credit to the average voter, or assume everyone votes in blocs.
You want to better understand voters? The majority are uninformed, apathetic, and easily persuaded with wedge issues. That includes highly accomplished and highly educated. The harder part is discovering the wedge issues. Yes some history and policy come into play but in all honesty, messaging and how it is delivered is more important than what people actually stand for.