Who wins Nevada?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who wins Nevada?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden+2.

[Steve from Lambeth]

nevada is lost for Biden.

[SnowLabrador]

Trump +7. I think he narrowly wins Clark County too.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Biden. I'll buy Nevada going R federally when I see it.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden +1

[redjohn]

I think Trump wins by a hair.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden by 1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is not 2004 NV it's a swing atate

[TheTide]

Biden. I'll buy Nevada going R federally when I see it.

I don't get this, even in the context of the highly polarised state of current politics. Nevada was D +2 in a D +4 presidential year in 2020. Does it really take a leap of the imagination to imagine it going R? Certainly not as much as it would have done MI going R in 2016 or GA going D in 2020, surely. Or how about a reality TV show host President or an African-American President? NV might or might not be won by Trump this year, but it's not hard for me to imagine him winning it, and certainly not hard to imagine a Republican winning it in the more distant future.

[oldtimer]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

[oldtimer]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

2022 Nevada registration was moving slowly to the GOP, at that time you could say it warranted a small 2 point shift from 2020, not a red wave.

Now another 2 years of that and that's another 2 points on top, so that's 4 points more GOP than 2020, now you can forecast a flip but not by a big margin.

Plus it may be accelerating, so it could end up a bit more than a 4 point shift.

You can also see the weakness of Democrats in Washoe (Reno), the 1 place where they gained ground in the past and now they lost their lead.

[kwabbit]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

Nevada being the least bad swing Senate seat for Republicans in 2022 is a point in favor of it trending right. Of course if Democrats get the types of numbers among independents that they did in 2022 they'll win Nevada, but they'll also win every other swing state.

[mjba257]

IMO, Nevada is an IA or OH 2016 just waiting to happen. Would not shock me if it ended up R+5 on election day.

[Roll Roons]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

Nevada being the least bad swing Senate seat for Republicans in 2022 is a point in favor of it trending right. Of course if Democrats get the types of numbers among independents that they did in 2022 they'll win Nevada, but they'll also win every other swing state.

Candidate quality also played a role. Laxalt wasn't amazing, but he was clearly better than Masters, Walker or Oz.

[TodayJunior]

When the dust settles, Biden will pull this out by about 3. Nevada is the ultimate white whale for republicans, one bc Dems are good at banking votes early and the gop still refuses to adapt so that a winter storm will inevitably tip the balance to team blue.

[Mr. Smith]

Trump if he wins, Biden if he does.

I suspect this is going to be a GOP NC though for some time, mostly unwinnable federally, but the gubernatorially locked in.

[xavier110]

Trump, who may win it while losing AZ #trends

[Liberalrocks]

Biden+2.

[DaleCooper]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

2022 didn't happen. That year doesn't even exist as far as the Trump people are concerned.

[Steve from Lambeth]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Can you really though;

I remember in 2022 a lot of people analyzing the early vote said it was good for Rs but the Is leaned heavily D so it ended up being what Masto needed. Independents are a huge block in NV so even if Rs are gaining more than Ds, Is becoming more D-favorable can cancel that out.

2022 didn't happen. That year doesn't even exist as far as the Trump people are concerned.

Folks, I've gotten the best historians, the best football players, even crooked Democrats like Lionel Messi, in a room with me this past Sunday. And you know what? We had a consensus. A big, beautiful consensus. It makes the Democratic Party consensus look like a broken, unwieldy washing machine. Our consensus is that France are the holders of the football, not soccer, World Cup. They won it five years ago, in 2018, in a huge country known as Russia. Go visit there one day; you'd be surprised. And they won it against Croatia, whose government I can also say I'm a true friend of. But Macron is a sad, sad man. He should have been up for re-election years ago, so many years ago that I don't even know the exact number. Let me check with Joe Biden; maybe he knows. But yeah - you see, folks? France won the last World Cup. It's true. It's a fact. Look in your calendars if you don't believe me. And they'll be back two years from now, in the beautiful USA, beautiful Canada and maybe not so beautiful Mexico, to play in the first 48-team World Cup, and maybe to win the trophy again if Mrs Kirchner doesn't rig the knockout stages. Trust me.

[Minnesota Mike]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Party registration is not nearly as useful a tool for estimating outcomes in Nevada as it used to be. Republicans may have gained on Democrats since 2020 but it's not because they are gaining more registrants, it's because they are losing them at a slower rate than the Democrats. Meanwhile unaffiliated/minor party registrations are exploding. In Nov 2020 "other" voters made up 31% of the electorate, today it's 40%. A large share of these non major party registrants are young people who were automatically registered and never bothered to pick a party but would be more likely to vote Democratic than Republican if they bother to show up and vote.

[Kamala's side hoe]

This is the one state where you can estimate reliably who wins and by roughly how much, by looking at trends in party registration.

Those indicate Trump by 2-3% , but the trend favours republicans so it could end up higher by election day, lets say Trump by 4%.

Party registration is not nearly as useful a tool for estimating outcomes in Nevada as it used to be. Republicans may have gained on Democrats since 2020 but it's not because they are gaining more registrants, it's because they are losing them at a slower rate than the Democrats. Meanwhile unaffiliated/minor party registrations are exploding. In Nov 2020 "other" voters made up 31% of the electorate, today it's 40%. A large share of these non major party registrants are young people who were automatically registered and never bothered to pick a party but would be more likely to vote Democratic than Republican if they bother to show up and vote.

This is more or less what happened in the 2022 midterms. Interesting that this poll went from Biden leading to Trump leading within the last 12-24 hours.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Biden, very narrowly.