List of potential upset victories in the presidential election

[Plankton5165]

Which states would be them?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

The most likely "shock" states seem like GA, NC, maybe KS, maybe TX. That is if we're operating under the assumption that it would not be shocking if states like WI, PA, AZ, MI, OH, or FL were to flip.

As for Trump, his most likely "shock" states seem to be MN, ME, and NH. CO and NV are the less shocking ones.

[Plankton5165]

What about states like CA, HI, DC? Or even WY and WV?

[Canis]

What about states like CA, HI, DC? Or even WY and WV?

Haha no.

[Agonized-Statism]

Atlas would probably be shocked if the Democrat won Indiana or Trump won Virginia.

[538Electoral]

New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

What about states like CA, HI, DC? Or even WY and WV?

Not a chance.

[Gracile]

ME, MN, and NH seem like the most likely Republican upset states, while GA and TX would be the most likely Democratic upset states.

[Agonized-Statism]

I wonder who'll post an eye-rolling emoticon first

[MT Treasurer]

As for Trump, his most likely "shock" states seem to be MN, ME, and NH. CO and NV are the less shocking ones.

CO and NV would be far more shocking than ME.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As for Trump, his most likely "shock" states seem to be MN, ME, and NH. CO and NV are the less shocking ones.

CO and NV would be far more shocking than ME.

CO and NV would be far more shocking than MN and NH as well.

[Xing]

"Upset" according to whom? Some would consider the Democrat winning AZ or WI or Trump winning MI an "upset" even though none of those would be surprising. I'd say GA for the Democrats and ME for the Republicans are the most likely.

[Politician]

Dems winning OH

[Torrain]

Dems winning OH

Sad, but true

[Plankton5165]

What about states like CA, HI, DC? Or even WY and WV?

Haha no.

Well, what if they actually were to happen?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ will become officially, as Cindy McCain stated, a Dem state

[President Johnson]

"And we can now project, ladies and gentlemen, that former Vice President Joe Biden has officially carried the state of Texas. I repeat it again: Joe Biden has narrowly carried the state of Texas, making him the first Democrat to do so since 1976. This means, Joseph R. Biden will be elected the 46th President of the United States by an electoral landslide. A crushing defeat for Donald Trump."

[Pheurton Skeurto]

What about states like CA, HI, DC? Or even WY and WV?

Haha no.

Well, what if they actually were to happen?

What if anything happened? What if it rained Cherry Coke and french fries grew out of the ground? Just because there's not a 0% chance something could happen doesn't mean we have to pontificate about what if it did happen.

[Orser67]

NC, GA, OH, IA, and TX for Democrats. ME, MN, NV, CO, and VA for Republicans.

I wouldn't count FL, PA, NH, WI, MI, or AZ going for either party as being "upsets".

[Nightcore Nationalist]

For Trump-Maine, Minnesota, Nevada.   
For Dems-Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa.

"And we can now project, ladies and gentlemen, that former Vice President Joe Biden has officially carried the state of Texas.

And we can now project, ladies and gentlemen, that President Johnson has woken up from his wet dream.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ will vote Democratic

[redjohn]

I don't think AZ would be an upset or very surprising.

I think the states with realistic chances of "upsets" for Dems are GA, NC, IA, OH, TX, and in some crazy unrealistic landslide scenarios KS, AK, and MT.

For Trump, I think the potential "upsets" are MN, NH, ME, and NV in a really bad year. VA or CO going for Trump would mean something extraordinarily terrible happened for the Dem nominee.

[redeagleofficial]

Trump has a loyal base which leaves him with a very low floor.  His ceiling is relatively low by analytical data, but things like trends and national unusual events like terror attacks/wars could raise it as well as dem scandals.  New Mexico is the sneak upset state to watch IMO, which will shock a lot of people on the forum because of the fact that it went blue by 8 in 2016.  The 2-way poll had Trump minus 2 to HRC, and internal polls from Johnson/Weld showed 75% of their voters would have broken to Trump.  If Trump can make grounds with Latinos, which many approval polls have indicated, as well as get out the white working class (which is sizable in New Mexico), it is possible.

For the Democrats, Georgia is a possibility.  I think that it is more like 2004's Virginia, it will go red for one election cycle and vote to the right of the country for the next 2, no matter who wins the state.  After that, it will be relatively gone unless the GOP finds a way to make inroads in the suburbs, which is still in the realm of possibility.

[elcorazon]

I don't understand this concept. It's all in the eye of the beholder. Is a state an upset if it goes against a recent poll? 2016 results? long history? I mean if I think Dems will win FL, is it an "upset"? I mean FL has historically (including 2016) been one of the closest swing states,  but atlas wisdom seems to view it as a very solid lean to Republicans. On the flip side, maybe I think Kansas or Alaska could flip (or be surprisingly close). Clearly those would be upsets, but even if I think that I'd have to admit those are much less likely than say a state like PA flipping. That's one reason the post suggesting states like WV isn't really a crazy post. That's the truest upset possibility in the country (DC I guess would be the craziest). But no one actually believes it will happen.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Kansas flipping dem wouldn’t be an upset. Everyone with a brain can seen it will flip