Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Frenchrepublican]

It’s a special election so it’s easy to imagine some weird results (like KS 4th in 2017 or SC 5th in 2017), generally speaking I don’t try to predict results for low turnout special elections but I could see everything from a 60/40 republican victory to a 70/30 republican win, but it’s interesting to note that since November 2018 Dems have generally not overperformed that much in special elections

[Frenchrepublican]

Money and early voting numbers seem to favour McCready but polls point to a close race

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1167424050903298049?s=20

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1167422493336002560?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

This race is unfortunately looking more and more like a remake of PA-18, republicans are staying at home while democrats are storming the polls.

Tilt D now and if things don’t change I think a 51/48 McCready wins is possible

[Frenchrepublican]

RRH NC-03 poll: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/09/03/rrh-elections-nc-3-poll-murphy-r-leads-thomas-d-51-40/#comments

Murphy 51
Thomas 40

These numbers are horrible, Trump won the district 60/38 and he is barely abovewater with the special election electorate. It's clear that low turnout special elections will continue to favour democrats, enthusiasm is on their side. It doesn't bode well for NC-9.

[Frenchrepublican]

Anyone thinks its possible NC 03 could be closer than NC 09. Im not predicting that but I wouldn't be shocked, special elections are whack. Ga 6th should have been a gimme for the D's just like PA 12th in 2010 but both failed yet SC 5th was close on the same night.

I'm doubtful about that. NC-9, contrary to NC-3, has a significant population of white liberals, these voters are fired-up, including for unconsequential low turnout special elections, it's the main reason why McCready is in a good position, the democratic electorate in NC-3 on the other hand is mostly composed of black voters who are unlikely to storm the polls in order to vote in a special election. Murphy will win easily but NC-9 will be close.

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone know when the RRH NC-09 poll will be released?

4pm ET for non-donors.

It’s Bishop +1

[Frenchrepublican]