Redistricting victims next cycle.

[Nyvin]

How do you chop up MN-1?   there's going to be a southeast district in any map that's drawn.

[Nyvin]

Alabama - AL-7 is most underpopulated but also VRA so it'll obviously survive in some form. AL-6 is probably the district that gets cut up, in fact I think it's the only real choice.

Illinois - IL-16 will probably get divided up between Chicagoland and the rest of the state.  IL-14 will take it's place as the border district.

Michigan - Probably lose a Detroit district (MI-13?).  On the plus side MI-12 will probably get pushed out of Wayne so Washtenaw can finally have it's own district (with some surrounding counties obviously).

Minnesota - MN-7 gets chopped.  Have one big gigantic "Northern Minnesota" district, and then divide the rest between MN-1 and MN-6.

New York - NY-22 is the most centrally located and the most underpopulated. Since Upstate NY is the big loser with NY redistricting it's the prime target.

Ohio - BLEH!  Redo the whole map, what a mess.

Pennsylvania - Tough one.   I'd guess the best option is PA-12.   The northeast is the most underpopulated, so expand PA-8 and PA-9 into PA-12 to accommodate the eastern part of the state, give PA-15 the rest to accommodate the rest of the state.  

West Virginia - WV-2.  Duh.

[Nyvin]

4 bases in Alabama have to have their own districts:

• African-American (7)
• Mobile (1)
• Huntsville/northern tier (5)
• Birmingham suburbs (6)

This all points to the 3rd district being dismembered or moving so far north it's effectively a different district.

But the 3rd is on the eastern boarder.   It makes more sense to just expand it into AL-6 and move it north so AL-7 can get more AA voters.   Then cut off that northern part of AL-6 and give it to the two northern district.   

Removing AL-3 altogether would require basically an entirely new map.

[Nyvin]

Yeah, Cooper's a goner.   Whatevs, we can make that seat up elsewhere.

[Nyvin]

I don't think splitting Davidson four ways is needed.   Just cutting it in half would be fine.   At the very most it should only be 3 districts in Davidson and even that is pushing it.