Redistricting victims next cycle.

[Tintrlvr]

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

More time has passed since the Democrats were competitive in rural middle Tennessee, so I could see the calculus changing for the Republicans. But I agree that it is more likely the Republicans will leave it as a Likely D seat.

[cvparty]

i could see some pub seats going in nj if dems win big in the house delegation and the commission wants to protect incumbents. possibly ungerrymandered atlanta seats if abrams wins, and nc if the gop can’t go crazy with the lines anymore. some seat in the detroit area will go, balderson’s district could become even/d-leaning with ohio’s ballot initiative, and ny-22 might get chopped up (it will be some upstate district)

Could they even adequately protect the number of Democrats that seem to be on track to winning (10-11)? NJ is a state where Republicans tend to do fairly well downballot when a Democrat is in the White House, like wayyy over-performing the presidential results, so any good map that ensures a certain high # of Dem seats would seem to require being more practical and less greedy.

if lance wins then i think he'd get a heavily pub district along the delaware while sherrill gets a d-leaning suburban district (could easily go into essex towns like montclair, west orange, south orange, and maplewood to do that) and gottheimer's district moves entirely/almost all into bergen

if dems sweep all of nj besides the 4th, i'm not sure an 11-1 map would be drawn. they might preserve the general west-east shapes of the seats but i think they would at least make the seats even if not dem-leaning.
- NJ-03 is tricky because you can't put trenton in it as long as chris smith lives in hamilton. you can't put camden co in it because population trends are expanding south jersey northward geographically. unless you're willing to extend nj-02 into ocean...
- again, it's not too hard to make the north jersey pub districts more democratic due to the cities (plus recent trends) but you'd have to make fajita districts
so tl;dr idk really

[Oryxslayer]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan

No, it can't because the map violates VRA. And an Alabama VRA seat requires something like 55% BVAP because the extreme Black/White partisanship can't reliability elect a person of color unless there is a larger than normal number of AAs present. However you do touch on something unique to Alabama in the deep South: if the VRA was no a thing, R's could go 7/6-0.

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

More time has passed since the Democrats were competitive in rural middle Tennessee, so I could see the calculus changing for the Republicans. But I agree that it is more likely the Republicans will leave it as a Likely D seat.

Not a chance. In 2010, TN R's feared (like AR Dems hoped) that the Obama coalition was only temporary, and southern whites could return to the Dems. That hasn't happened. In hindsight, leaving TN05 as a Dem seat was a bad move: it's easy to sink the city and the surrounding seats are all R+20 or more.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan

No, it can't because the map violates VRA. And an Alabama VRA seat requires something like 55% BVAP because the extreme Black/White partisanship can't reliability elect a person of color unless there is a larger than normal number of AAs present. However you do touch on something unique to Alabama in the deep South: if the VRA was no a thing, R's could go 7/6-0.

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

More time has passed since the Democrats were competitive in rural middle Tennessee, so I could see the calculus changing for the Republicans. But I agree that it is more likely the Republicans will leave it as a Likely D seat.

Not a chance. In 2010, TN R's feared (like AR Dems hoped) that the Obama coalition was only temporary, and southern whites could return to the Dems. That hasn't happened. In hindsight, leaving TN05 as a Dem seat was a bad move: it's easy to sink the city and the surrounding seats are all R+20 or more.

The purple seat here is 51% black and D+11. I think that given that blacks dominate the dem primary vote there, it’s guaranteed to send a black dem to congress

[jimrtex]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan

It would likely be too radical change to the Black  Belt district.

There would also be opposition to splitting up the Tennessee Valley.

[KingSweden]

Cooper’s best shot at survival is to see if his people can get an independent commission on the 2020 ballot that prioritizes keeping counties whole

Does TN have ballot initiatives?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan

Eyeballing this, looks like Rogers is screwed.

[jimrtex]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan

No, it can't because the map violates VRA. And an Alabama VRA seat requires something like 55% BVAP because the extreme Black/White partisanship can't reliability elect a person of color unless there is a larger than normal number of AAs present. However you do touch on something unique to Alabama in the deep South: if the VRA was no a thing, R's could go 7/6-0.

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

More time has passed since the Democrats were competitive in rural middle Tennessee, so I could see the calculus changing for the Republicans. But I agree that it is more likely the Republicans will leave it as a Likely D seat.

Not a chance. In 2010, TN R's feared (like AR Dems hoped) that the Obama coalition was only temporary, and southern whites could return to the Dems. That hasn't happened. In hindsight, leaving TN05 as a Dem seat was a bad move: it's easy to sink the city and the surrounding seats are all R+20 or more.

The purple seat here is 51% black and D+11. I think that given that blacks dominate the dem primary vote there, it’s guaranteed to send a black dem to congress

You have fractured the rural counties of the Black Belt into four districts, and apparently used race to divide Jefferson and Montgomery counties (and Birmingham and Montgomery?). Plus it appears that you used a racial target.

You said that this was a "likely" plan. Why would the legislature draw this map?

[Virginiá]

Cooper’s best shot at survival is to see if his people can get an independent commission on the 2020 ballot that prioritizes keeping counties whole

Does TN have ballot initiatives?

No idea, but if they don’t, bye-bye Cooper

He's done. Tennessee doesn't allow any sort of citizen-initiated statutes or amendments.

[Nyvin]

Yeah, Cooper's a goner.   Whatevs, we can make that seat up elsewhere.

[Oryxslayer]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan

No, it can't because the map violates VRA. And an Alabama VRA seat requires something like 55% BVAP because the extreme Black/White partisanship can't reliability elect a person of color unless there is a larger than normal number of AAs present. However you do touch on something unique to Alabama in the deep South: if the VRA was no a thing, R's could go 7/6-0.

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

More time has passed since the Democrats were competitive in rural middle Tennessee, so I could see the calculus changing for the Republicans. But I agree that it is more likely the Republicans will leave it as a Likely D seat.

Not a chance. In 2010, TN R's feared (like AR Dems hoped) that the Obama coalition was only temporary, and southern whites could return to the Dems. That hasn't happened. In hindsight, leaving TN05 as a Dem seat was a bad move: it's easy to sink the city and the surrounding seats are all R+20 or more.

The purple seat here is 51% black and D+11. I think that given that blacks dominate the dem primary vote there, it’s guaranteed to send a black dem to congress

Sorry about that then. You tend to draw R-Leaning maps, and I have never seen a BVAP seat quite like that. It also looked like Birmingham was outside the seat, I couldn't tell without the basemap. As others said, this might be too radical a change to both the north and the SW too get implemented - plus I doubt R's would want to surrender both Birmingham and Montgomery to dems.

[Bidenworth2020]

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

More time has passed since the Democrats were competitive in rural middle Tennessee, so I could see the calculus changing for the Republicans. But I agree that it is more likely the Republicans will leave it as a Likely D seat.

they will probably just take the slightly more conservative Williamson County burbs to make it likely d at best

[Brittain33]

Yeah, Cooper's a goner.   Whatevs, we can make that seat up elsewhere.

Yeah, well, just wait until Taylor Swift endorses the Democrats running in all 3 districts cracking Nashville and the gerrymander collapses.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

West Virginia - WV-2.  Duh.

Almost certainly it'll be whoever is in WV-3 who gets the short end of the stick, due both to geography and seniority (barring any retirement). This was/will be the logical conclusion of any GOP-dominated coalition in WV government; to divide the state into east and west in order to prevent any potential weakness from popping up in the southern end of the state. This was something that was surely on their radar even before 2016, and with Ojeda's relative success in running in WV-03, it's all but guaranteed now. He's even talked about how there have been backroom discussions on dividing WV this way before he jumped into the race.

McKinley's in Wheeling and Mooney is in Charles Town; cut a line down the middle of the state and neither have to move to run for re-election - and especially if a Democrat holds WV-03 then, it'll all but guarantee their victories.

Mooney is incompetent enough that I could see a Democrat beating him in that district.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Yeah, Cooper's a goner.   Whatevs, we can make that seat up elsewhere.

Yeah, well, just wait until Taylor Swift endorses the Democrats running in all 3 districts cracking Nashville and the gerrymander collapses.

I see your Taylor and raise you Carrie Underwood

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I can see a Nashville crack backfiring, tbh.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Cooper’s best shot at survival is to see if his people can get an independent commission on the 2020 ballot that prioritizes keeping counties whole

Does TN have ballot initiatives?

No idea, but if they don’t, bye-bye Cooper

He's done. Tennessee doesn't allow any sort of citizen-initiated statutes or amendments.

Only state legislature-initiated constitutional amendments, and those can only be in gubernatorial elections.  We don't have any this year, but we had 4 in 2014 (no right to abortion, judicial terms, income tax unconstitutional, veteran gambling events).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I can see a Nashville crack backfiring, tbh.

I couldn't.  People underestimate a few things- how Republican Nashville suburbs are, the significant pockets of GOP strength within Davidson County, and that Nashville proper isn't even big enough for a full district.  Nashville is surrounded by TN-4, TN-6, and TN-7.  The sum of the Cook PVI's of those four districts (including TN-5) is R+57, which means it's possible to split Middle Tennessee into four R+14-15 districts (which actually mean 30 point GOP wins, as in 65-35).

[DC Al Fine]

I can see a Nashville crack backfiring, tbh.

I couldn't.  People underestimate a few things- how Republican Nashville suburbs are, the significant pockets of GOP strength within Davidson County, and that Nashville proper isn't even big enough for a full district.  Nashville is surrounded by TN-4, TN-6, and TN-7.  The sum of the Cook PVI's of those four districts (including TN-5) is R+57, which means it's possible to split Middle Tennessee into four R+14-15 districts (which actually mean 30 point GOP wins, as in 65-35).

What sort of PVI is required to be considered a safe seat?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I can see a Nashville crack backfiring, tbh.

I couldn't.  People underestimate a few things- how Republican Nashville suburbs are, the significant pockets of GOP strength within Davidson County, and that Nashville proper isn't even big enough for a full district.  Nashville is surrounded by TN-4, TN-6, and TN-7.  The sum of the Cook PVI's of those four districts (including TN-5) is R+57, which means it's possible to split Middle Tennessee into four R+14-15 districts (which actually mean 30 point GOP wins, as in 65-35).

What sort of PVI is required to be considered a safe seat?

I'd say 6 either way is enough to hold off standard "waves" (2006/2010).

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I'm excited to see what happens for CA. The commission won't pay attention to incumbency or PVI.

[Zaybay]

I'm excited to see what happens for CA. The commission won't pay attention to incumbency or PVI.

What does the CA commission base its congressional maps off of then?

[cvparty]

I'm excited to see what happens for CA. The commission won't pay attention to incumbency or PVI.

What does the CA commission base its congressional maps off of then?

communities of interest. thinks like metro areas, race for some minority districts, i'm not sure if they consider this but maybe demographics like income/education

[Oryxslayer]

I'm excited to see what happens for CA. The commission won't pay attention to incumbency or PVI.

What does the CA commission base its congressional maps off of then?

Communities of interest, which are voiced by residents at forms and via methods of direct communication. Its the commissions job to decide what communities are more importent then others. That said, some districts physically can't change: SF will always have 1 CD anchored in the city barring massive pop change.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In the event TN loses a seat, here's what a Nashville split could look like:



1: Utterly safe eastern TN coal dirt seat. R+29, and another 10 years in Congress for Phil Roe (R) (insert Generic R if he dies).

2: Features the entirety of Knoxville and Maryville, heads south for population. R+21. Tim Burchett (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress) will have a long career here.

3: Nashville Split, Part A. Includes Western Davidson County and its western surburbs, then heads across the northern border until scooping south to touch district 2. R+14, and the home for Mark Green (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress).

4: This seat includes Nashville proper and is where Jim Cooper (D) would try to run for re-election, but the E-SE suburban skate it takes after leaving Nashville does not help him, as it takes the seat all the way to R+10. This would be a free-for-all in the republican primary, but whoever wins it would defeat Cooper or any other D in the general.

5: Skating from East Davidson through heavily republican suburbs, this will be home for John Rose (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress). R+16.

6: This seat features the entirety of Chattanooga, and then goes West for population. At R+18, it's not competitive in the general election. But the 2022 primary would feature a YUGE battle as two republican incumbents live here - Chuck Flesichmann and Scott DesJarlais. Prepare for a nasty primary. Alternatively, one of them could carpetbag up to the 4th, but would risk losing the primary to a new, more local candidate.

7: This R+19 West TN seat is perfect for another 10 years of David Kustoff (R).

8: D+18 VRA. Safe Steve Cohen/generic Black D if he retires.

-------------

Least Change from this if TN remains at 9 Reps is as follows: The 1st becomes even more trenched in the coal dirt, with its westernmost parts going into the second. The southernmost parts of the second end up in the sixth, the westernmost reaches of which become a new, 9th seat that would in theory be good for Mr. DesJarlais, but in practice the fact that he would live just outside of it might doom him in the primary. The seat is completed with parts of the 5th/8th. Adjust remaining lines as needed to reach uniform population.