2040
There are cracks in the Democrats' big tent, and even more climate refugees from South Asia and Central Africa, but Democrat policies remain popular enough for the incumbent VP to win. Republicans push hard in perma-Purple Texas but also make some breakthroughs in the Northeast...
...Nativists remain a big part of the [R] coalition, but a muffled one as they were pre-2010: by this point, voting blocs are a lot fuzzier with the country being majority-minority and more mixed race.
I wonder where in the US said subcontinental and Sub-Saharan refugees would be most likely to settle and what if any electoral impact they'd have.
2036
President Bee Nguyen (D-GA) / Vice President Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) - 270 EV / 49% PV
Republican Candidate (R-?? / Republican Candidate (R-??) - 268 EV / 50% PV
Nguyen wins narrowly re-election due to a good economy and a competent response to the Social Security Crisis and Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But Republicans were able to put up a good fight by emphasizing the rising crime rate and surge of illegal immigration.
This is the first time that the Republicans have won the popular vote and lost the electoral college.
Not sure if this would be the most probable map in a split PV-EC scenario but what a based Governor Bee Nguyen timeline. Weird that Dems do better in the PV in 2040 despite both NV and VA flipping R.