Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

How does the absentee push work? Do you mail/deliver absentee request forms to voters who tend to be unreliable in midterms, and they fill it out and send it to the state, who then sends them a ballot when its time? If so, do you guys provide free postage and stuff too?

Yes. Her campaign sent out over 1 million absentee applications with the postage prepaid. They are working in conjunction with the state party to canvass voters and ask if they have received it and if they intend on voting by mail. Once the applicant turns it in and receives their ballot, the Abrams campaign can track them and continue to canvass them until they mail their ballot in or they go vote early in person. If they still haven’t gotten their ballot in by November 2 and didn’t early vote, they will be canvassed during the GOTV period (Saturday-Election Day).

[Virginiá]

How does the absentee push work? Do you mail/deliver absentee request forms to voters who tend to be unreliable in midterms, and they fill it out and send it to the state, who then sends them a ballot when its time? If so, do you guys provide free postage and stuff too?

Yes. Her campaign sent out over 1 million absentee applications with the postage prepaid. They are working in conjunction with the state party to canvass voters and ask if they have received it and if they intend on voting by mail. Once the applicant turns it in and receives their ballot, the Abrams campaign can track them and continue to canvass them until they mail their ballot in or they go vote early in person. If they still haven’t gotten their ballot in by November 2 and didn’t early vote, they will be canvassed during the GOTV period (Saturday-Election Day).

Interesting! Thanks. That is some good work you are doing up there

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If the Abrams campaign doesn't contact me by October 15, I will select Brian Kemp on my absentee ballot

[Virginiá]

If the Abrams campaign doesn't contact me by October 15, I will select Brian Kemp on my absentee ballot

Don't make me come up there with my pepper spray

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If the Abrams campaign doesn't contact me by October 15, I will select Brian Kemp on my absentee ballot

Don't make me come up there with my pepper spray

If you can wrestle me to the ground, I will vote for Stacey Abrams

[GeorgiaModerate]

If the Abrams campaign doesn't contact me by October 15, I will select Brian Kemp on my absentee ballot

Don't make me come up there with my pepper spray

If you can wrestle me to the ground, I will vote for Stacey Abrams

Virginia vs. DTC cage match.  At stake: the Georgia governorship.

I'd buy a ticket.

[Adam Griffin]

If the Abrams campaign doesn't contact me by October 15, I will select Brian Kemp on my absentee ballot

You're a white Republican residing in Kemp's home turf expecting persuasion contact from a turnout-oriented campaign: might as well send the ballot off today!

[Adam Griffin]

And a more relevant ED/EV split interactive map by county for comparison to 2018:

Percentage of Gubernatorial Voters to Vote Early, 2014

(36.8% Statewide EV in 2014)

[ON Progressive]

I find it interesting that the northeast corner of the state (Towns/Rabun/Habersham/Stephens) are mostly early votes.

Do you have any idea of why that might be?

[Adam Griffin]

I find it interesting that the northeast corner of the state (Towns/Rabun/Habersham/Stephens) are mostly early votes.

Do you have any idea of why that might be?

Wealthy, old, out-of-state conservatives buying up mountain tracts for their tacky log cabins (and to a lesser degree, pretty much every county with large transplant conservative populations have high early voter participation rates). See the previous page for the presidential version; you can see it at work in places like Forsyth as well. Northeast mountainous GA is the most concentrated area in terms of all of these factors converging, however.

Rabun County specifically also consolidated down to 1 precinct, so early voting isn't any harder than voting on Election Day. Probably explains why it had the highest share of ballots cast early both in 2014 & 2016.

[CityofSinners]

Expect this to show up in a anti-Kemp ad shortly.

https://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/for-brian-kemp-suit-over-bad-loan-reveals-political-financial-perils/FGeAr04V2A0tphsBVMSObI/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

[Del Tachi]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

This attack line doesn't make sense to me because democrats get a lot more small donor donations than republicans

I keep reading this same attack and it's making me want to vote Abrams now

[Rookie Yinzer]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

She has way more in-state small dollar donations than Brian Kemp. Just because Brian Kemp has more wealthy donors to choose from inside the state doesn't make him a better candidate. 

[henster]

Kemp up 48-46.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/landmark-poll-shows-tight-race-for-georgia-gov-divide-over-kavanaugh/i01BKbcxcBqSlV5ENZ2gRP/

[nolesfan2011]

Kemp up 48-46.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/landmark-poll-shows-tight-race-for-georgia-gov-divide-over-kavanaugh/i01BKbcxcBqSlV5ENZ2gRP/

Seems right based on internals I've done, very well could be a runoff

[Del Tachi]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

She has way more in-state small dollar donations than Brian Kemp. Just because Brian Kemp has more wealthy donors to choose from inside the state doesn't make him a better candidate. 

Small donors are still a fractional source of funding for Abrams' campaign.  She's raised more money from big-time out-of-state donors like George Soros (who gave $1.5 million) that small donors, and many of her small donors are probably from out-of-state as well.

Like it or not, Abrams' fundraising is a weakness that Kemp will be able to capitalize upon.

[Dr. Arch]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

She has way more in-state small dollar donations than Brian Kemp. Just because Brian Kemp has more wealthy donors to choose from inside the state doesn't make him a better candidate. 

Small donors are still a fractional source of funding for Abrams' campaign.  She's raised more money from big-time out-of-state donors like George Soros (who gave $1.5 million) that small donors, and many of her small donors are probably from out-of-state as well.

Like it or not, Abrams' fundraising is a weakness that Kemp will be able to capitalize upon.

About 20% of all donations is not "fractional," and what does the "Georgia" category mean? This is disingenuous at least.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Like it or not, Abrams' fundraising is a weakness that Kemp will be able to capitalize upon.

But it's not sticking. The only people that care are hardcore conservative partisans who would chew glass before voting for Abrams. She's leading Kemp by 33 points among independents after Deal won them by 23 just four years ago.

Instead of worrying about Stacey's donations has he finally told Georgians what he will do for the rural hospitals that have closed under Republican one-party rule?

[QAnonKelly]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

She has way more in-state small dollar donations than Brian Kemp. Just because Brian Kemp has more wealthy donors to choose from inside the state doesn't make him a better candidate.  

Small donors are still a fractional source of funding for Abrams' campaign.  She's raised more money from big-time out-of-state donors like George Soros (who gave $1.5 million) that small donors, and many of her small donors are probably from out-of-state as well.

Like it or not, Abrams' fundraising is a weakness that Kemp will be able to capitalize upon.

[Virginiá]

I mean, yeah, she has a lot of out-of-state donations, but a fairly decent chunk of small donors too, so she could also make the argument that Kemp's relative lack of small donors means he's being bought off by special interests. The argument can go both ways.

Although I will admit that I do remember Ossoff getting criticism over out of state donations from voter interviews. I'm not sure how big of a deal it was, but it does seem like, to the extent that voters care about any of this, they care more about out of state donors than "special interests."

Anyway, not really convinced any of this will matter much in the end.

[Adam Griffin]

Updating county figures (compared to Friday). According to the SoS, 14,970 ballots have been returned.

Either there's a reporting error or the county boards of election in Macon and Columbus continue to be incompetent. We saw a huge return of ballots over the weekend in Clarke, big surges in Cobb & Dekalb (tripled and doubled the # of returned ballots, respectively) and a few oddities continue to remain visible (such as the disproportionate number of ballots in Troup, and the relatively small #s from Fulton).

These counties now comprise 66% of returned ballots (up from 63% on Friday); these counties comprised 63% of Georgia's 2010 population and 72%/75% of Obama/Clinton's statewide vote bloc:

Code:

1556	(507) 	COBB
1385	(788)	DEKALB
1088	(623)	GWINNETT
658	(526)	RICHMOND
550	(318) 	CHATHAM
511	(495) 	FULTON	
489	(347) 	CHEROKEE
487	(257) 	HENRY
395	(298) 	HOUSTON
387	(285) 	FORSYTH
351	(215) 	PAULDING
311	(189) 	COWETA
271	(218) 	COLUMBIA
213	(34) 		CLARKE
196	(137) 	TROUP
186	(186) 	CLAYTON
179	(176) 	LOWNDES
167	(89)    	DOUGLAS
155	(115)	FLOYD
154	(154) 	ROCKDALE
75	(56) 		WHITFIELD
27	(27) 		BIBB
23	(4)    	HALL
13	(13) 		MUSCOGEE
0	(0)		DOUGHERTY

According to Michael McDonald's stats:

Code:

White	6651	46.2%
Black	6033	41.9%
Latino	312	2.2%
Other	571	4.0%
Unknown	819	5.7%

Female	8353	58.1%
Male		5974	41.5%
Unknown	59	0.4%

18-29	  759	5.3%
30-44	1149	8.0%
45-60	2286	15.9%
60+	      10154	70.6%
Unknown	   38	0.3%

[Rookie Yinzer]

So it's continuing to get less white and more female.

If you had to guess what the margin is among these votes, what do you think it is now?

[Dr. Arch]

So it's continuing to get less white and more female.

If you had to guess what the margin is among these votes, what do you think it is now?

Yuuuuge