Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.

Those Midwestern numbers are a thing of beauty.

[KingSweden]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 47% (-4)
Disapprove: 51% (+3)

Strongly Approve: 30% (-3)
Strongly Disapprove: 41% (+3)

And this is why we should ignore Rassy - that kind of swing in *one day* is not believable

They use a rolling average (5 days, I think).  This kind of swing could be an extreme outlier sample dropping in or out.

An extreme outlier like... polling on Easter Sunday? Haha

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 47% (-4)
Disapprove: 51% (+3)

Strongly Approve: 30% (-3)
Strongly Disapprove: 41% (+3)

And this is why we should ignore Rassy - that kind of swing in *one day* is not believable

I agree.

[LimoLiberal]

Those morning consult state polls are lovely. Midwest swinging bigly against Trump.

[OneJ]

http://mtsupoll.org/

Trump approval at 50-41 in Tennessee.

[pbrower2a]

Apples to apples with Morning Consult. Same time, all states, same screen. 100-DIS, which with other pollsters serves as as good an estimate of the ceiling for the vote for an incumbent seeking re-election:    

deep blue, 60% or more
navy, 55-59%
blue, 50-54% or more if ahead
white, 50% or more if behind* or tied and 47% or more
pink and behind, 47-49%
red,  41-46%
maroon, 40% or lower
deep red -- Dee Cee

These polls, with few exceptions (Minnesota) are more favorable to President Trump than to the statewide polls that I have compiled (and intend to keep working with. I will use the poll for Minnesota on my statewide map because the last poll came as President Trump was making promises of infrastructure spending that, although then resonating with Minnesota's ore miners, never materialized and probably won't be presented anew until after the 2018 midterm election.

It is easy to see that the President has unusually weak support in such states as Idaho, Kansas, Montana, and Utah. In these statewide polls, he seems to have rebounded significantly in the South. If there are arguments that Morning Consult undercounts minorities, then I have a good cause to not show these polls in the South. But I might not have such a problem for Kansas or Minnesota.


...Later polls might show effects of retaliatory tariffs by China on some American farm products, especially pork, soybeans and whiskey.  Of the ten biggest soybean-producing states, eight went for Trump. The rural vote usually goes heavily R in most elections, but Trump could blow that. Three of the states involved are Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin.   President Trump knows about as much about farming as he does about military service, and I can imagine him getting walloped in farm states in 2020.

Note Indiana. Indiana goes R in just about every Presidential election... but when it goes by less than 10%, the Democrat invariably wins nationwide. Indiana has some swing electorates that might not be as important in Indiana as in such states as Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but when the Republican Party catches a cold in Indiana it gets double pneumonia in some bigger or more significant states.  Indiana is a big producer of soybeans and price-sensitive (on metals) machinery. Again, this is before the effects of tariffs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 29-April 4, 14018 adults (12318 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Zzzzz.....

[pbrower2a]

 

http://mtsupoll.org/

Trump approval at 50-41 in Tennessee.

I find that Morning Consult may be overstating the strength of the GOP in the South. I will not use its polls to replace polls that I have of Southern states. I will replace the obsolete poll of Minnesota (where Trump did well in polling while he talked about an infrastructure program that Congress rejected; ore miners in Minnesota had been excited about the prospect of more activity to get the iron ore necessary for steel in such projects, but once that fell through, I expect Minnesota to trend to its usual norm. That's 40-57. I am also replacing the "excellent-good-fair-poor" poll in Montana with the 50-46 that I see on Morning Consult.

Otherwise I am filling in gaps.



Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 36
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.  The Montana poll is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll which is semantically different from approve-disapprove, and I am splitting the 12% "fair" evenly  (6-6), and after an approval poll comes in I would never replace it with another EGFP poll.

[GlobeSoc]

I bet that the Morning Consult people failed to poll black voters.

[pbrower2a]

  

http://mtsupoll.org/

Trump approval at 50-41 in Tennessee.

I find that Morning Consult may be overstating the strength of the GOP in the South. I will not use its polls to replace polls that I have of Southern states. I will replace the obsolete poll of Minnesota (where Trump did well in polling while he talked about an infrastructure program that Congress rejected; ore miners in Minnesota had been excited about the prospect of more activity to get the iron ore necessary for steel in such projects, but once that fell through, I expect Minnesota to trend to its usual norm. That's 40-57. I am also replacing the "excellent-good-fair-poor" poll in Montana with the 50-46 that I see on Morning Consult.

Otherwise I am filling in gaps.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/



Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 36
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.  The Montana poll is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll which is semantically different from approve-disapprove, and I am splitting the 12% "fair" evenly  (6-6), and after an approval poll comes in I would never replace it with another EGFP poll.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Morning consult continues to underpoll miniorities lol

Kansas at +1 but Georgia at +5

yeahhhh sure jan

Not impossible since Kansas has first-hand experience with the utter stupidity of the GOP tax cut, but almost certainly an outlier,

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yikes!
Trump's approval is at 37% in Orange county.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/04/04/trumps-approval-rating-at-37-in-orange-county-chapman-poll-finds/

[Gustaf]

Why would Wyoming be 23 points more Trump-friendly than Idaho?

[pbrower2a]

Why would Wyoming be 23 points more Trump-friendly than Idaho?

More farming and dairying, and less ranching in Idaho than in Wyoming? Note also that Idaho is the second-most Mormon of states, and Donald Trump is the worst cultural match for a major Republican for Mormon family values ever. His approval in Utah, take notice, is only at 48% on my map (and 45% on the Morning Consult poll). If someone did a poll of Utah pitting Obama against Trump, I would expect Obama to win  even if Obama lost Utah in two landslides. Obama is closer to fitting Mormon values than is Trump. 

Ranchers are a rather right-wing bunch as they are about the purest individualists in economics in America. Farmers want their subsidies... and dairying is practically an industrial operation in which dairy workers are treated much like industrial workers in an assembly-line setting. Dairy workers are a genuine proletariat. In contrast, ranch hands need to have their employers supply basic needs due to their isolation and recognize their employers as benefactors for housing and utilities. The "ranch" style house is a middle-class practice well outside of ranching country, even if middle-class adults have largely outgrown any 'cowboy' shtick.

[Gass3268]

Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation:

Approve 40% (23% Strongly)
Disapprove 57% (47% Strongly)

Source

Also:

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/982267170355798016

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/982267346482937856

[Dr. Arch]

↑ Nearly 50% Strongly Disapprove is huge.

[KingSweden]

↑ Nearly 50% Strongly Disapprove is huge.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Gosh darn it.  Strong numbers for Trump all around.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

[Dr. Arch]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Oops

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Oops

Oopsos

[King Lear]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 47%
Disapproval: 52%
This is slight drop from the last survey, however these are still solid numbers for a divisive incumbent President.

[KingSweden]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Oops

Oopsos

Lol that was great

[Dr. Arch]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 1-5, 1761 adults

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Oops

Oopsos

Lol that was great

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's at 40.1% in the polling aggregate at 538.  We're now less than two weeks from the point in time where Carter went as low as 40.0% in his polling aggregate at the equivalent time in his presidency.  So Trump could conceivably soon be able to say that at least one other president was less popular than him at this point in his presidency.