Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

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How close is that to your guess, Sam?

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=28

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Stevens is still a tossup to win Alaska?  How long are you going to hold it in limbo Sam?

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But this is a prediction, right?  If Stevens trial outcome is unknown, then we can still make a prediction on other factors.  Right now, he's not favored to win.  If he beats off the conviction, he could still be tarnished and there's no guarantee that he'd win regardless.  If the results of the trial determined the race, I'd agree with you, but the results will only determine if Stevens will even be competitive.

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Watch List (note: I'm only including 13 races that I "think" could be interesting, so that the number nicely rounds to 35.  I tend to include races that 1) are in marginal CDs; 2) open seats; 3) challengers have money; 4) freshman Reps; 5) bad candidates)
1. CT-02 (Courtney)
2. IL-08 (Bean)
3. IL-14 (Foster)
4. IN-08 (Ellsworth)
5. ME-01* (Allen)
6. MS-01 (Childers)
7. NC-11 (Shuler)
8. NY-19 (Hall)
9. OH-18 (Space)
10. TX-17 (Edwards)
11. UT-02 (Matheson)

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Sam, I have a challenge for you and I think you'll enjoy it but maybe not.

Can you list the five-seven House races, and, perhaps, two Senate races, which you are most likely to be proven wrong on in election day?  Upsets of Sam's predidctions, if you will.  I know you already try and adjust for this type of thing (AK-AK-AK), but it'd be a good firewall for you   Even if you miss a race or two, you can still have them on that secondary "Maybe I'm Wrong" list.

Sort of thing I'm truly interested in.  I trust your judgment as rough estimate of the consensus, but I trust your judgment more on where the consensus could be failing to take other factors into account.     And it's not just CA-4 (which I'm surprised to note is already at #40, yay, higher than Politicker which has it at #53 or so) haha.   Besides the clear tossups, which races on November 4th would be the least predictable?

Or is your list already organized 100% in terms of confidence?

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From TPM (D):

The DCCC latest FEC filings from last night show that the Dems put down over $7 million for ads in 39 races across the country, in a mix of offense and defense. The single most notable expenditure: The Dems are spending $777,000 to go after scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young (R-AK), an astonishing amount for a small and very red state.


...

The NRCC has been playing defense with their media buys, compared to the Dems who have done mostly offense. The Hill reports that the GOP has now put down over $2 million on ads to defend Reps. Tim Walberg (R-MI) and Steve Chabot (R-OH). On top of that, Minnesota Public Radio reports that the NRCC has reserved $126,000 worth of ad time in defense of GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann.


...

Dole refuses to debate


...

Further elaboration from the hill on GOP spending:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

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Some more spending updates for you to ponder Sam:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1008/NRCC_cutting_back_ad_buys.html?showall

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why is GA likely as opposed to lean?  I'd think that Martin's chances are closer to Musgrove's than to Allen's... I actually think he might be slightly more likely to win than Musgrove is (but also more likely to lose by 8-10%).

Much like I said earlier this year with Hagen, Martin has to prove to me that he can get above 44%-45%. 

In other words, all signs point to those Chambliss movers as being movers from Chambliss to undecided.  But so far, none of those movers have shown any inkling to move to Martin.  Until a poll shows they have interest in doing such, when election day gets here, they will move back to where they came from.

Of course, the fact that the DSCC is not advertising here is another factor.  Although they are advertising in KS, which makes no sense in comparison.

a little birdie told me to expect them to do so soon.  Well, no one told me that, but I can see the national party sprinting over.

[Lunar]

New poll out confirms your idea on NV-02.  Some Kos diarist is sad right now.

Yay, CA-04 is now in the "lean" category.  Go Charlie Brown Go!

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http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1008/DCCC_adds_eight_candidates_to_list_of_top_recruits.html
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added eight new Democratic challengers to its "Red-to-Blue" list of leading recruits.

The list, once viewed as a gold standard for the party's strongest candidates, now resembles more of a compilation of any Democrat with even a small chance of winning.

One of the additions is Louisiana technology executive Jim Harlan, running in a district that gave President Bush 71 percent of the vote in 2004.  He's running against Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who won a special election for Bobby Jindal's old House seat.  Harlan has been self-financing much of his long-shot campaign.

Another inclusion is blind rabbi Dennis Shulman, running against Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.).

The full list of additions are below:

Josh Segall (AL 03)
Nick Leibham (CA 50)
Becky Greenwald (IA 04)
Jim Harlan (LA 01)
Elwyn Tinklenberg (MN 06)
Dennis Shulman (NJ 05)
Linda Ketner (SC 01)
Larry Joe Doherty (TX 10)

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You read the ScoreCard?

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How long before he cancels his reelection bid?

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The DSCC has bought 500k in Georgia...

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Aww shucks.

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I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBFARnjmIEE&eurl

Some talent in there.

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I know you don't like news updates, but MAmbinder is saying that the DSCC is sending staff and even more money to GA.

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Senate done.  House will be finished this evening...

You should update your topic post with your finished rankings for convenience.  Gosh I had to do a few extra clicks to find it!

[Lunar]

FINAL PREDICTIONS

SENATE 2008 (56 Democrats, 42 Republicans, 2 Independents)
WINNER IN RED

Alabama: Figures (D) 35, Sessions (R) 65 GOP HOLD
Alaska: Begich (D) 50, Stevens (R) 45, Others 5 DEM PICKUP
Arkansas: Pryor (D) 92, Others 8 DEM HOLD
Colorado* Udall (D) 53, Schaffer 45, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Delaware: Biden (D) 65, O'Connell (R) 35 DEM HOLD
Georgia: Martin (D) 46, Chambliss (R) 49, Others 5 SENT TO RUNOFF (GOP HOLD)
Idaho* LaRocco (D) 39, Risch (R) 58, Others 3 GOP HOLD (humor prediction)
Illinois: Durbin (D) 63, Sauerberg (R) 35, Others 2 DEM HOLD
Iowa: Harkin (D) 59, Reed (R) 41 DEM HOLD
Kansas: Slattery (D) 38, Roberts (R) 59, Others 3 GOP HOLD
Kentucky: Lunsford (D) 47, McConnell 53 GOP HOLD
Louisiana:Landrieu (D) 53, Kennedy 46, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Maine: Allen (D) 43, Collins (R) 57 GOP HOLD
Massachusetts: Kerry (D) 61, Beatty (R) 36, Others 3 DEM HOLD
Michigan: Levin (D) 60, Hoogendyk (R) 38, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Minnesota: Franken (D) 40, Coleman (R) 43, Barkley (I) 16, Others 1 GOP HOLD
Mississippi - A: Fleming (D) 37, Cochran (R) 63 GOP HOLD
Mississippi - B: Musgrove (D) 46, Wicker (R) 54 GOP HOLD
Montana: Baucus (D) 65, Kelleher (R) 33, Others 2 DEM HOLD
Nebraska* Kleeb (D) 36, Johanns (R) 61, Others 3 GOP HOLD
New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) 52, Sununu (R) 47, Others 1 DEM PICKUP
New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) 55, Zimmer (R) 43, Others 2 DEM HOLD
New Mexico* Udall (D) 56, Pearce (R) 43, Others 1 DEM PICKUP
North Carolina: Hagan (D) 51, Dole (R) 47, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Oklahoma: Rice 39 (D), Inhofe (R) 58, Others 3 GOP HOLD
Oregon: Merkley (D) 50, Smith (R) 45, Others 5 DEM PICKUP
Rhode Island: Reed (D) 78, Tingle (R) 22 DEM HOLD
South Carolina: Conley (D) 43, Graham (R) 57 GOP HOLD
South Dakota: Johnson (D) 59, Dykstra (R) 40, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Tennessee: Tuke (D) 37, Alexander (R) 61, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Texas: Noriega (D) 43, Cornyn (R) 55, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Virginia* Warner (D) 59, Gilmore (R) 38, Other 3 DEM PICKUP
West Virginia: Rockefeller (D) 64, Wolfe (R) 36 DEM HOLD
Wyoming - A: Rothfuss (D) 31, Enzi (R) 69 GOP HOLD
Wyoming - B: Carter (D) 34, Barrasso (R) 66 GOP HOLD

HOUSE 2008 261 Democrats, 174 Republicans (29 Dem Pickups, 4 GOP Pickups)

Likely DEM PICKUP
AK-AL
AZ-01*
CA-04*
CO-04
CT-04
FL-08
FL-24
FL-25
ID-01
IL-10
IL-11*
IN-03
MI-07
MI-09
MN-06
NC-08
NE-02
NJ-03*
NM-01*
NM-02*
NV-03
NY-13*
NY-25*
NY-29
OH-15*
OH-16*
PA-03
VA-05
VA-11*

GOP PICKUP
FL-16
KS-02
PA-11
TX-22

DEM HOLDS (up to 20 seats)
AL-05*
AZ-05
AZ-08
GA-08
IN-09
KS-03
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NY-20
PA-04
PA-10
PA-12
TX-23
WI-08

GOP HOLDS (up to 60 races)
AZ-03*
CA-03
CA-46
CA-50
FL-13
FL-21
IA-04
IL-06
IL-18*
KY-02*
LA-04* (runoff)
MD-01*
MN-03*
MO-06
MO-09*
NJ-05
NJ-07*
NV-02
NY-26
OH-01
OH-02
PA-06
PA-15
SC-01
TX-07
TX-10
VA-02
VA-10
WA-08
WV-02
WY-AL