Who will win in Georgia?

[Adam Griffin]

The sheer fact that we're even having this conversation now is a victory for Georgia Dems. By 2016, we'll have at least one Democratic Senator from Georgia. The votes are there for Nunn to win 52-53% of Georgia voters: will they be there on Election Day is the real question. She can win without a run-off, but my gut says we'll end up in one. I don't think her fate is as sealed in a runoff as it would have been in the past, (if you can win a plurality in a midterm, then you stand a better chance than you would in a presidential cycle).

Perdue can self-fund, refilling his coffers today if he wants to be out of the hole. Nunn hasn't been hit that hard yet, sure, but the change in the election calendar in Georgia means that Republicans have lost in relative terms two months of attack potential (as in, Republicans attacking each other for two extra months; runoffs both before and after 2014 changes were in late July-early August).

Everybody also seems to forget that DSCC and outside groups are going to be attacking Perdue, too. This isn't the 2004 Senate race, y'all: it wouldn't surprise me if $30 million is dropped in Georgia before all is said and done, and neither party is going to have any substantial advantage in that money game.

I would have rather had Kingston, though.

[Adam Griffin]

Wait... Why the hell is the runoff scheduled for after the new Congress is sworn in? Was I reading that correctly??

Yes. This is what happens when you let Republicans make calendars.

[Adam Griffin]

Wait... Why the hell is the runoff scheduled for after the new Congress is sworn in? Was I reading that correctly??

Yes. This is what happens when you let Republicans make calendars.

Well, I guess it helps to know how to read a calendar: the Senate runoff (if needed) is in December. The Gubernatorial runoff would be in the new year. Bizarre, yes, but not as bizarre as having a Senate runoff after the new Congress is sworn in.

Um, no.

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Wait... Why the hell is the runoff scheduled for after the new Congress is sworn in? Was I reading that correctly??

Yes. This is what happens when you let Republicans make calendars.

But these runoff rules were instituted when Democrats dominated the South.

Again, not really. The runoff threshold was at 50% for over 100 years, and yes, that was due to Democrats wanting a guarantee. In 1992, Wyche Fowler lost the run-off against Coverdell despite beating him in the general election.

The Democrats then changed the run-off requirement to 45% to begin with the 1994 elections, where it stayed at through 2004.

Once Republicans took control of the General Assembly in 2005, they changed the rules back to 50% (since it now benefited them). So at least in Georgia, the current runoff laws were instituted by Republicans.

[Adam Griffin]

Well, I'd chalk it up to an error but for the SOS to have it listed that way, it would be a pretty massive error. In my defense, though, several reputable sites have stated that the Senate runoff is in December and the Gubernatorial runoff is in January.

I've checked around online and I can't find a source that shows the opposite. My home county and another county are showing what the SoS is showing. It's also what the party and campaigns are conveying. If the SoS has made a typo that's led to this, then it'll the biggest election calendar flub of the century...

And yeah, the original set of dates were ruled invalid due to not having enough time to mail out absentee ballots 45 days before an election, which is why the federal ruling/suggestion was issued in 2013; pretty sure Judge Jones' ruling prevailed on the general election runoff, which was Jan 6. The GA could have moved it up a week or two, though, but didn't.