2016 GOP primaries if the Access Hollywood tape came out in between Iowa and New Hampshire

[darklordoftech]

?

[Brother Jonathan]

I assume Trump would still win, as his opposition was still very splintered in NH. It's hard to see any single candidate benefiting from this enough to beat out Trump, though his margin would have been reduced.

Even if we assume about a fourth of Trump's voters defected as a result, and 50% of those voters went to the runner-up (Kasich), Trump would still win by almost 2%, and I doubt the benefit would have been anywhere near that uniform for any single candidate.

South Carolina would be another question, but even there Cruz and Rubio split the non-Trump vote in 2016 pretty much evenly and I don't know that any revelation would create a sufficiently uniform defection to put either one over the top (especially if Trump was able to tout a win, however narrow, in New Hampshire).

I guess it just seems to me that Trump voters were too stubborn and the opposition too divided in the early primary to really arrest Trump's path to the nomination. Maybe if the opposition coalesced behind Cruz earlier (or someone else who was viable) it would be different, but a revelation like that probably would make candidates more likely to stay in the race, especially if it leads to a long string of narrow wins. So maybe it is a hung convention, but it still seems like the dynamics of the primary would still benefit Trump. He simply had a certain type of voter pretty much all to himself. Usually, one such candidate emerges in GOP Presidential primaries, and in 2016 Trump was that candidate.

[Alben Barkley]

Cruz is the most likely winner in the end, if not in New Hampshire, where Kasich might actually win. I can actually see this coming down to Cruz (evangelical/Tea Party wing) vs. Kaisch (moderate/blue collar wing) in the end instead. I really think the release of the tape that early would have sunk Trump fast. He was still kinda in flux at that time, his fate by no means secure. The cult wasn't fully formed or devoted to him yet. He was still seen largely as a novelty. A number of things could have caused him to implode and be stopped in its tracks at that time, and I think the tape could certainly do it. His momentum likely would have been killed; the same pastors who ironically sucked off Trump since would have damned him to hell in public, all his GOP opponents would have pounced on him and called him a RINO and Democrat and Bill Clinton 2, etc. He would have been massacred. Hard to believe now, I know, but you gotta try to remember the context of the time was still just totally different.

[GregTheGreat657]

Cruz is the most likely winner in the end, if not in New Hampshire, where Kasich might actually win. I can actually see this coming down to Cruz (evangelical/Tea Party wing) vs. Kaisch (moderate/blue collar wing) in the end instead. I really think the release of the tape that early would have sunk Trump fast. He was still kinda in flux at that time, his fate by no means secure. The cult wasn't fully formed or devoted to him yet. He was still seen largely as a novelty. A number of things could have caused him to implode and be stopped in its tracks at that time, and I think the tape could certainly do it. His momentum likely would have been killed; the same pastors who ironically sucked off Trump since would have damned him to hell in public, all his GOP opponents would have pounced on him and called him a RINO and Democrat and Bill Clinton 2, etc. He would have been massacred. Hard to believe now, I know, but you gotta try to remember the context of the time was still just totally different.

Outside of Ohio, Kasich had no blue collar appeal. In his competitive governor race in 2010, a decent of amount of the Rust Belty or Appalachian types of places went for his opponent. Additonally, Kasich has supported free trade and is open to amnesty, two positions that would kill any non-Ohio blue collar appeal.