VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[slothdem]

The VA GOP still hasn't learned.

This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but I’m of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, there’s already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.

There's the rub. A Larry Hogan or a Charlie Baker-type could definitely carry Virginia state-wide. But the GOP primary electorate in VA is not the GOP primary electorate in MD and its on a different planet than the GOP electorate in MA. They don't want a Larry Hogan and they definitely don't want a Charlie Baker. They want a Corey Stewart, and they may even want an Amanda Chase. Needless to say, these fringe figures are not acceptable to swing voters in the urban crescent, which is where the state is decided.  Democrats will run a candidate from NOVA or Richmond (the current gov is from the Roads), and will win this race for the 5th time out of the last 6.

The problem for the VA GOP is half the state is Kentucky and half the state is New Jersey, and the New Jersey half has twice as many people.

[slothdem]

https://www.pilotonline.com/government/virginia/vp-nw-andria-mcclellan-lieutenant-governor-announces-20200722-yq2qf7hqzfg5pb6qavdhlnfrkm-story.html

The fact that so many Dems want to run is a good early sign. Both Gov and Lt Gov seem like they'll be real races.

I don't think I know any GOP operative in the state who thinks they have a real shot at any of the three posts, even during a Biden presidency. The damage done in the DC and Richmond suburbs is just too significant.

[slothdem]

I have long said that Republicans are more likely to flip New Jersey than Virginia in 2021, and I stand by that. Especially since there is minimal chance of Fairfax winning the primary and Amanda Chase is the likely GOP nominee. No state party is more self-defeating than the VAGOP. To think they once produced John Warner.

This is an exaggeration. As bad as things are for the GOP in Virginia, the situation in New Jersey is even more dire. And that's before the fact that the NJ GOP has insanely decided to run as the "open everything up" party.

[slothdem]

Riggleman would keep it within ten points

Not if he was on the Libertarian ticket.

[slothdem]

If Herring's smart he'll drop out of the Attorney General's race too. There's no place in statewide politics for someone who wore blackface.

I do wonder what will happen to Northam after his tenure as Governor.

Is he even interested in running for another office?

No. He will return to practicing medicine. And that would have been the case regardless of the scandal. Governor of Virginia, his birth state, was always his highest ambition.