Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Arkansas Yankee]

Everything is so quiet in mudeville tonight.  

Wonder why?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Let me warn you of what I believe are two losing courses of action for the Democrats

1. Attacking ICE, attacking officers, and seizing offices.

2. Accosting Republican officeholders in public or at home.  That is especially true when the officeholder is a woman.  Keep accosting Attorney General Bondi in Florida.  See how that helps Nelson win re-election.

[Arkansas Yankee]

You all are whistling past the grave yard.

In this special election the GOP candidates received 59.82% of the vote.  The Democrats received 39.13.

In 2016 Farenthold received 61.69%. The Democrat 38.31%

Swing to the Democrats .82

I know you did not think you would win the District.  But you all thought that there would be a much larger swing.  You thought you could force a run off.  Please do not dissemble.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Let me warn you of what I believe are two losing courses of action for the Democrats

1. Attacking ICE, attacking officers, and seizing offices.

2. Accosting Republican officeholders in public or at home.  That is especially true when the officeholder is a woman.  Keep accosting Attorney General Bondi in Florida.  See how that helps Nelson win re-election.

We don't do any of that.

Besides, I highly doubt that will influence the voter, who wasn't going to vote in the first place, to vote for the GOP.

No, you did not do it.  Allies did.  Maxine is encouraging it.

I hope you keep believing these actions will not effect Democrats negatively.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

You are the only person I know who takes swings from partisan leans.  The rational way to do it is to base it on the congressional vote in the last election which was R 61.69. D 38.31.  In this election the total vote was R 59.82 D 39.13. Others 1.05.  The swing is only .82.  No where near 6.

Let’s say we use the two major candidates.  We have R 54.74. D 31.96.  The R lost6.95.  The Dem lost 6.35.  The R lost .6 more than the D.   But this is comparing apples and oranges.

I do not know where you get your partisan lean.  1 do not know how you can base the actual swing in a congressional race with the presedential vote  the later may play a part in determine how partisan a district might be, but it is not part in determine the swing in a congressional vote. 

I AM TELLING YOU THERE WAS NO 6% SWING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE IN THIS DISTRICT BETWWEEN 2016 and 2018.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Fairly interesting that the Republican already won in the 1st round.

On the other hand, only 30.000 people voted and I guess the average CD has a population between 700.000-750.000 people, so this special election is totally meaningless.

But you have been telling me that Republicans have not been as motivated to vote as Democrats.  Here they were almost as motivated.  Now you try to change rules of analysis.

In this election on this day there was basically equal motivation.  Can you explain any reason for that than the ones I have listed?

[Arkansas Yankee]

TX-27 is a Jungle Primary, so we have this YUGE field:

Democratic Party Raul (Roy) Barrera[9]
Democratic Party Eric Holguin[10]
Democratic Party Mike Westergren[9]
Republican Party Bech Bruun[10]
Republican Party Michael Cloud[10]
Republican Party Marty Perez[11]
Libertarian Party Daniel Tinus[9]
Independent Judith Cutright[9]
Independent Chris Suprun[9]

--------------

So I'll guess: Cloud(R) 44%, Barrera(D) 18%, Holguin(D) 14%, Westergren(D) 8%, Brunn (R) 7%, Perez(R) 6%, Others 3%

This was one prediction of Democrat optimism in Tex 27 that went puff

[Arkansas Yankee]

My prediction: Cloud wins by 12%

A prediction from yesterday afternoon that went puff.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Good 6 point swing vs the partisan lean, I'll take it!

You are the only person I know who takes swings from partisan leans.  The rational way to do it is to base it on the congressional vote in the last election which was R 61.69. D 38.31.  In this election the total vote was R 59.82 D 39.13. Others 1.05.  The swing is only .82.  No where near 6.

Let’s say we use the two major candidates.  We have R 54.74. D 31.96.  The R lost6.95.  The Dem lost 6.35.  The R lost .6 more than the D.   But this is comparing apples and oranges.

I do not know where you get your partisan lean.  1 do not know how you can base the actual swing in a congressional race with the presedential vote  the later may play a part in determine how partisan a district might be, but it is not part in determine the swing in a congressional vote.  

I AM TELLING YOU THERE WAS NO 6% SWING IN THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE IN THIS DISTRICT BETWWEEN 2016 and 2018.

I didn't make that chart, it's what Harry Enten at CNN and formally 538 uses. Also Data Journalist for the Economist G. Elliott Morris agrees with Enten (his +5 came before all the votes were counted).

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1013237246990934016

It is still worthless or predicting swing.  It obvious that was not including the votes of the other Republicans.

You did not gain 6% on the GOP! PERIOD!

[Arkansas Yankee]

This kind of thing just costs Enten and so on credibility. And it opens him up to ugly attacks like this:



It's war out there guys.

How? This is a legitimate way of looking at this. Multiple data journalists use this method.

Every time someone challenges you, you just try out another appeal to authority. You realize that's a logical fallacy, right? A 60-40 Trump district that went 55-45 GOP for Congress in 2016, and re-elects its Republican Congressman 55-45 this fall would be a "10 point D swing" by your data journalist model but that doesn't get the Democrats a pickup of the seat, which is all that matters.

Democrats need to make gains versus the previous Congressional vote if they are to pick up seats this fall. Arkansas Yankee at least looked at the numbers himself. Liberals need to stop idolizing these "data journalists", it's making us lazy.

Are you the leader of this pack?

[Arkansas Yankee]

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Why don’t you Google election swing.

You all have seemed to have developed your own definition of “swing”

[Arkansas Yankee]

I never said this election indicated a disaster for Democrats.  I merely pointed out there was no 6 point swing. I also stated the voter enthusiasm was about the same for both parties..   I stated some reasons why this might be so.  There may be other reasons.

For now the election in Texas 27 stands alone.  It is a anomaly.  To be a harbinger it must be confirmed. 

I am late posting this, as I went to church.

[Arkansas Yankee]

One of the former GOP primary candidates is endorsing O’Connor https://shareblue.com/danny-oconnor-republican-endorsement-troy-balderson-ohio/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

That candidate got 783 votes.